tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-64549482831162075892024-03-14T09:35:21.619-04:00Sox vs. StripesA Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees Rivarlry Fan BlogUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger620125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-74050819697163707722016-02-10T15:22:00.002-05:002016-02-10T15:22:48.682-05:00Truck Day! / Questions Going Into CampFalling only behind your wedding day and the birth of your kids in a Sox fan's life, Truck Day is when all the equipment is loaded up at Fenway and <a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2016/02/10/here-what-the-red-sox-packed-for-truck-day/0sLoylq8KKPK5zeVqE9osJ/story.html?p1=story_hp" target=blank>makes the long trip to Florida</a>
<br/><br/>
<blockquote>
Here is the list of what will be loaded onto the truck, according to the team:
<br/>
20,400 baseballs
<br/>
1,100 bats
<br/>
200 batting gloves
<br/>
200 batting helmets
<br/>
320 batting practice tops
<br/>
160 white game jerseys
<br/>
300 pairs of pants
<br/>
400 T-shirts
<br/>
400 pairs of socks
<br/>
20 cases of bubble gum
<br/>
60 cases of sunflower seeds
</blockquote>
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Riveting stuff, I tell you! Riveting! But why 100 more t-shirts than pants? Hmmm....
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Yeah, it's a little goofy. But when you live in New England and two feet of snow is sitting on the ground, you take your signs of spring where you can find them.
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But it does mean that we can start speculating on the Sox and what is in store for them in 2016. Here are three questions to keep in mind:
<br/><br/>
<strong>1. How will Ortiz perform in his last year?</strong>
<br/><br/>
2016 marks the end of the prolific career of David Ortiz. I am not sure what the Sox will do without his bat; he has failed to hit 25+ HR only twice in the last 13 years and 90+ RBI three times. But that is a question for later this year. For now, what can they expect from Ortiz in 2016/ Here's a projection from Baseball Reference
<br/><br/>
30 HR | 91 RBI | .513 SLG | .863 OPS | 64 R
<br/><br/>
Slightly beneath the totals of his last three seasons but not too far off. If Ortiz holds true to form, he should generate most of this offense in the second-half of the year. But the Sox are going to miss hit bat. I am not sure who on their team right now would come close to these numbers as a DH.
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<strong>2. Will David Price solidify Boston's pitching rotation?</strong>
<br/><br/>
This is the single biggest question for Boston. If their new ace can elevate Boston's starting pitching to even average levels, the Sox should be a playoff contender. Here is the projection in 2016 for Price, again courtesy of BR:
<br/><br/>
13-8 | 3.09 ERA | 195 IP | 192 K | 43 BB | 1.128 WHIP
<br/><br/>
Even that basic projection would have made Price the best pitcher on Boston's staff in 2015. Personally I think he is more likely to grab between 16-20 wins thanks to Boston's run production and improving defense. And that kind of anchor in Boston's rotation will make the rest of their staff better. Especially Porcello, who I think is due for at least a .500 season this year.
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<strong>3. Who will be the starting catcher?</strong>
<br/><br/>
This is going to be the most interesting position to observe during Spring Training <em>and</em> in the regular season. The Sox have two young starting catchers in Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart. Vazquez has the better arm and defense but Swihart likely has the better bat. Of course, with Vazquez making his return from Tommy John surgery and missing the 2014 season, he won't start the season in Boston. But his talent is undeniable.
<br/><br/>
If Vazquez is okay and plays well in AAA, then the Sox face an interesting question. They have Ryan Hanigan on contract through this year with a 2017 option. They won't carry three catchers on the main roster. Could the Sox possibly consider trading Vazquez or Swihart during the season to fill a need? Or would they rather have two young, talented, controllable catchers on the roster heading into 2017 and beyond?
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It's a tough question. But I think Swihart will be your starting catcher and if Vazquez gets back into form, Dombrowski may use him as a blue-chip trading piece to fill a vital need. Even though most Boston fans would hate to see that happen.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-72804656949418582042016-01-12T10:32:00.000-05:002016-01-12T10:32:53.515-05:00Voting For the Hall of FameSo the votes are in and we'll have two new members to the Hall of Fame this year. It's not surprising that Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey Jr. made the cut. Piazza was the best offensive catcher since Carter and Fisk hung up their cleats. And Junior is the best position player I have ever seen in my life. A defining moment of all the times I have been to Fenway Park will be when I saw Junior, on a dead run, make an over the shoulder catch at the Triangle in center field.
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I was surprised others did not make it in. If I were a voter for the Hall (and I'm not), my ballot would have looked like this:
<Br/><br />
<ul>
<li>Mike Piazza </li>
<li>Ken Griffey Jr. </li>
<li>Jeff Bagwell</li>
<li>Trevor Hoffman</li>
<li>Curt Schilling</li>
<li>Mike Mussina</li>
<li>Larry Walker</li>
</ul>
<Br/><br />
To me the other two no-brainers on that list are Jeff Bagwell and Trevor Hoffman. Bagwell was a monster at first base. Rookie of the Year in 1991. He won the MVP, albeit in the 1994 strike-shortened season. Of course, that same year he pulled off an amazing feat by averaging more than one RBI per game (116 in 110 games). His lifetime JAWS of 63.9 ranks 6th all-time for first basemen. Bagwell is 64th all-time in total WAR. Hoffman is one of only two closers to have 600+ saves (the other being Mariano Rivera). No one else even has 500 saves. A lifetime ERA of 2.87. Eighth all-time in WHIP (1.058). And you could make a strong argument that he should have won the 1998 NL Cy Young Award.
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Then you have the ones that you have to argue for. Curt Schilling never won the Cy Young. But he came in second three times. He had two dominant years back-to-back in 2001-02. In both those years he was the Sporting News NL Pitcher of the Year. From 2001-04 his average was 18-7 with a 3.11 ERA (ERA+ 150)and 252 strikeouts. But his true value came in the post-season. In 12 series his record was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP. In the World Series those numbers were 4-1 | 2.06 ERA | 0.896 WHIP. His 80.7 WAR is 26th all-time for pitchers. His career WHIP of 1.127 is in the top 50 all-time. Most impressively, his K/BB ratio of 4.383 is second all-time, trailing only Tommy Bond, who pitched before there were airplanes.
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Mike Mussina was in the top 6 of Cy Young voting in 9 of his 18 years. He registered 11+ wins per year for 17 straight years, only missing out in his rookie season. That alone is an amazing feat. He won seven Gold Gloves as a pitcher. 24th all-time in WAR for pitchers (82.7). 33rd all-time in wins with 270. 19th in strikeouts. One of only 12 pitchers to have a WAR higher than 80 with 270+ wins and 2800+ strikeouts. His consistency was probably why he wasn't appreciated more.
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Larry Walker in his hey-day was a monster. If you look at his prime three years (1997-99) you see a dominant batter at the height of his powers. His average over those three years: .369 BA | 36 HR | 104 RBI | .451 OBP | 1.141 OPS. Throw in a MVP award in 1997 while you're at it. Seven Gold Gloves. .313 lifetime batting average. 15th all-time in OPS. His fielding percentage in right field (.986) is 30th all-time. He contributed at the plate and in the field.
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So yeah, I am one of those guys who doesn't vote for Tim Raines because while he was good at a lot of things he was only great at stealing bases. I can't vote for Bonds or Clemens because of the PED issue, although I think they will get in before their 10 years are up. I feel bad for Alan Trammel; had he played 10 years later or if sabermetrics came along 10 years earlier I think he'd be in.
<Br/><br />
But I think this would be a ballot you could look at and defend. No glaring absences. None of that "No one should be a unanimous 1st year inductee" crap.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-18064540869499999262015-12-08T14:49:00.002-05:002015-12-08T14:49:26.794-05:00Sox Trade Wade Miley and Aro to Seattle for Carson Smith and Roenas EliasLet's play a quick game. I am going to put down two projection lines for two pitchers in the AL for 2016. The stats are from Baseball Reference.
<br /><br />
<strong>Pitcher A</strong>
<br /><br />
9-10 | 4.27 ERA | 177 IP | 145 K | 1.362 WHIP | 7.4 K/9
<br /><br />
<strong>Pitcher B</strong>
<br /><br />
7-9 | 4.02 ERA | 132 IP | 115 K | 1.303 WHIP | 7.8 K/9
<br /><br />
Pitcher A is Wade Miley. Pitcher B is Roenas Elias. And this is why yesterday's deal may have been a steal for Boston.
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I am not going to deny that I was hoping Miley would stay in Boston. He was the only free agent Boston signed last year to give the Sox exactly what they expected. He was a solid back-end starter who ate up innings. The only reason Boston's bullpen didn't completely burn out last year was that Miley averaged six innings a start.
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But that also made Miley a valuable trade chip. He's cheap money for the next two years, reliable and under 30. So to flip Miley to Seattle for Carson Smith made a lot of sense.
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Carson Smith has the potential to give Boston a 1-2 punch for the next three years like the Yankees had with Betances and Miller. Last year Smith posted a 2.31 ERA, 13 saves, 22 holds and a 1.01 WHIP while striking out 90 batters over 70 innings. And while that may not be how Boston starts the year (I can't see them kicking Uehara back as a 6th/7th inning guy yet) don't be surprised if it happens by mid-season.
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<br /><br />
But Elias as a throw-in makes this deal a possible steal for Boston. A lefty like Miley, he is two years younger and gives you similar production. So what has Boston really lost in this deal? Jonathan Aro? I don't think we'll miss him. In essence, Seattle pretty much just gave Boston Carson Smith.
<br /><br />
Never mind that Smith is controllable for five years and Elias for four. That's the icing on the cake. But now Boston has one of the strongest bullpens in the majors to go along with a new ace. Pitching was <em>the</em> weak spot for Boston last year. Their defense was league average and offensively they ended fourth in the AL in runs scored. Now with an upgraded pen and strengthened rotation, Boston becomes a very dangerous team.
<br /><br />
Dombrowski may not be done yet. It's not inconceivable that Boston trades for a second starter, though the cost would likely be prohibitive. But even in this is where he stops the wheeling and dealing, no one can deny that Dombrowski has made the Sox stronger heading into 2016 at a relatively low cost.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-10916411870519188102015-12-02T08:56:00.001-05:002015-12-02T09:19:11.683-05:00David Price Joins the Red Sox - Breaking it DownThe bombshell in the sporting world last night was the news that the Red Sox signed free-agent pitcher David Price to <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14268105/david-price-agrees-7-year-217-million-deal-boston-red-sox" target=blank>a seven-year, $217M dollar contract</a>. The premier free-agent pitcher on the market this off-season, Price gives the Sox the top-flight pitcher they were lacking last year. Between this and the trade for Craig Kimbrel, Sox GM Dave Dombrowski has solidified Boston's pitching to a large degree.
<br /><br />
The details of the deal are pretty straight-forward. Price can opt out after three years (end of 2018 season). He makes $30M each year for the first three years, $31M in the fourth and $32M each of the last three years. So you can also look at this as a three-year deal, which changes some things we can talk about in a moment.
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Lifetime, Price is 104-56 with a 3.09 ERA. He won the Cy Young in 2012 and finished second in 2010 and 2015. He has thrown 200+ innings in five of the last six years. He is without argument one of the best pitchers in baseball and gives Boston their first Cy Young winner in the rotation since Pedro Martinez left at the end of the 2004 season.
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Lifetime at Fenway, Price is 6-1 in 11 starts with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.946 WHIP. He is 16-2 lifetime against the Blue Jays, 13-7 against the Yankees. Being a lefty in Fenway has not presented Price with many problems over his career and I don't think it will now, any more than it did Jon Lester. And he is solid against the big teams in the AL East.
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Oh, and Price doesn't cost the Red Sox their first-round draft pick.
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So based off of the above, this sounds like a great signing. And for the most part, it is. But there is one rather large red flag.
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<a name='more'></a>
In the post-season, Price is 2-7 lifetime with a 5.12 ERA in 14 starts. It's a rather large mark on an otherwise stellar career. And since the goal of any team is to make the post-season and win the World Series, can Boston do that with Price leading the rotation?
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If your problem is how your pitcher performs in the post-season, that means you have to <em>get</em> to the post-season first. So of all the problems your pitcher could have, there are worse ones for a fanbase to face.
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As for the money...yes, a $31M per year average is steep for any pitcher, let alone one whom has just hit 30. But the Sox had a need and Price was the best pitcher to fill that need. Plus, the third-year opt-out is interesting.
<br /><br />
Baseball is swimming in money. A recent TV contract deal increased MLB television revenue by 100%. So the Sox can afford this deal. But say Price just kills it the next three years. He wins a Cy Young, the Sox win another title. Odds are in 2018, baring a national economic collapse, that Price will opt-out and try for more money.
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But he will also be 33. Dombrowski and Boston may look at that and gamble that Price won't be able to replicate his recent performance. And maybe by that time, Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens have established themselves as a great young duo in the rotation. In which case they shed a big contract without losing too much.
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Or the other scenario occurs: Price is a bust and Boston is saddled with another large deal they can't shed. But there is nothing in Price's career to date that suggests this is likely to happen.
<br /><br />
The bottom line is that Boston addressed their key need by signing the premier free-agent pitcher on the market. They took on some risk with the per-year value of the contract but there is a third-year opt-out that could negate that risk entirely. It's a good move by Boston and puts the rest of the league on notice that the Sox mean business in 2016.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-83475200411520454622015-11-18T08:19:00.001-05:002015-12-04T08:20:22.015-05:00What will David Ortiz's Last Season Look Like?The big news in New England today is that <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14153965/boston-red-sox-slugger-david-ortiz-retire-2016-season-report" target=blank>David Ortiz will be retiring after the 2016 season</a>.
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Ortiz will retire as the most beloved Sox slugger since Yaz hung up his cleats after the 1983 season. But if the first thought in Boston's fan is to be sad about his retirement, the second one is most likely "What kind of season will Papi have in 2016?"
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Ortiz turns 40 today (Happy Birthday, Papi!). Not too many players have a career that goes into their 40s <em>and</em> stay productive when they get there. His last three seasons have been remarkably consistent, all with 30+ home runs, 100+ RBI and 500+ AB. He has stayed healthy and has contributed. But 40...things change when you hit 40.
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Baseball Reference has this projection for Ortiz in 2016:
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<strong>567 Plate Appearances | 130 H | 30 2B | 30 HR | 91 RBI | .863 OPS</strong>
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That would represent his lowest OPS since 2009 and the first time he went under 600 plate appearances in a 100+ game season since 2008. That said, it would still be a pretty remarkable season for a hitter in his 40s. In fact, you could argue that it would be the best season ever for a 40+ hitter with 500 or more homers not named Ted Williams. Which either speaks to Ortiz's longevity or Baseball Reference being too optimistic.
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If those stats held, here would be Ortiz's final career numbers:
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<strong>10032 Plate Appearances | 2433 H | 614 2B | 533 HR | 1732 RBI</strong>
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And for his career, here is where he would place all-time:
<br /><br />
Plate Appearances: 82nd
<br /><br />
Hits: 117th
<br /><br />
Doubles: 11th
<br /><br />
Home Runs: 19th
<br /><br />
RBI: 21st (tied with Honus Wagner)
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It is also worth noting that Ortiz would be one of only three players in MLB history to retire with 500+ HR, 600+ 2B and 1600+ RBI. The other two players are Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron. Which I think will make for some very interesting and volatile HOF arguments once Ortiz retires.
<br /><br />
My gut says that BR is being slightly optimistic. The past couple of seasons Ortiz has started cold and needed a scorching second half of a season to get his numbers up. Can he do that again at age 40? I think it will be a little harder to do. But I do think he will still reach 600+ doubles. So get those HOF arguments ready.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-79292897426982495562015-11-14T10:34:00.000-05:002015-12-04T08:20:40.553-05:00Kimbrel Deal Shows Dombrowski Means BusinessIt was just yesterday morning when I posted a piece talking about <a href="http://soxvsstripes.blogspot.com/2015/11/who-will-red-sox-trade-this-off-season.html" target=blank>whom the Sox were most likely to move in any deal</a>. Two of the three names in the minor league system were Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra.
<br /><br />
Less than twelve hours after that, the Sox included Margot and Guerra in <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14124091/boston-red-sox-acquire-craig-kimbrel-san-diego-padres" target=blank>a four-player swap for Padres closer Craig Kimbrel</a>. Also included in the deal were lefty Logan Allen and infielder Carlos Asuaje.
<br /><br />
There is no sugar-coating that the Sox paid a heavy price for Kimbrel. Margot, Guerra and Allen were all top-20 prospects in the Boston system, Margot and Guerra top-10. But Dombrowski made clear that there were no sacred cows in the minor-league system. He drafted none of these kids, which makes him quite capable of moving them on for what he sees as a good deal.
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And you can't argue against Kimbrel being a great pickup. Only 27 years of age, he already has 225 saves. A four-time All-Star and former Rookie of the Year, he led the NL in saves four out of his five seasons and is a two-time Sporting News Pitcher of the Year. His fastball velocity has remained constant or improved his entire career. He is also under Boston's control for the next three years. Most importantly, he instantly improves a bullpen in Boston that was a disaster last year.
<br /><br />
But I'd be lying if I said that moving some of these guys doesn't hurt. Margot especially; I watched him in Portland and you can tell he is going to be a good big leaguer. But the old saw that "You have to give talent to get talent" exists for a reason; because it's true.
<br /><br />
Now, was it too <em>high</em> of a price? That depends on who you ask. Some people <a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2015/11/lauber_red_sox_quickly_improve_in_adding_craig_kimbrel" target=blank>think it barely hurts at all</a>. Others <a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2015/11/14/here-hoping-the-red-sox-deal-for-kimbrel-all-dombrowski-meant-painful/HIpSlE0EN5EN227RMi8beO/story.html" target=blank>feel the pain is a little more palpable</a>. Which I think reflects how Boston fans have viewed their minor-league system over recent years.
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<br /><br />
We <em>love</em> our prospects around here. We think Boston's minor-leaguers are the best in baseball. And it doesn't hurt that year-in and year-out that their system is consistently ranked among the best in baseball. We think they are worth their weight in gold and can't conceive moving any of them for less that the best possible players in the game today. And when you consider players like Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Jose Iglesias, Anthony Rizzo, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart and others, you can understand why.
<br /><br />
But we tend to forget or gloss over the misses. Names like Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront. All those guys were top prospects who were so hyped in the minors they could have been dealt for major-league talent. Instead, they came into the majors and kind of fell apart.
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So it could be that Margot, Guerra and the rest turn out to be amazing players. Or they could be busts; only Margot has played at AA level or higher. I think Margot could be a very good player, but who knows?
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Boston <em>may</em> have overpaid in this deal. Or maybe they underpaid. That won't be known for a few years. What we do know today for sure is that Boston now has one of the best closers in baseball for at least the next three years. That their bullpen is a lot better than it was 24 hours ago. And that Dombrowski is serious about turning the Red Sox around in 2016.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-13159289730959480782015-11-13T09:23:00.002-05:002015-11-13T09:23:20.459-05:00Who Will the Red Sox Trade This Off-Season?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVnZTS_HZCg0yccEwElKEnm0lMXzDjWfQ-vV-Fe-IkHk_H6TcB6IBXpoz70B8vy-VEeDr54_lfuhh1e7lxl85lHlCPvyX9b0xXLiSx7chQ3NwqZUidHzI_vpEHMi-yWztfgQ6F4jXeZ1U/s1600/buchholz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVnZTS_HZCg0yccEwElKEnm0lMXzDjWfQ-vV-Fe-IkHk_H6TcB6IBXpoz70B8vy-VEeDr54_lfuhh1e7lxl85lHlCPvyX9b0xXLiSx7chQ3NwqZUidHzI_vpEHMi-yWztfgQ6F4jXeZ1U/s400/buchholz.jpg" /></a></div>
So the 2015 season is over and all eyes in Boston turn to one man: Dave Dombrowski. The man who is known for wheeling and dealing will undoubtedly continue that tradition as the top man in Fenway Park. Heaven knows <a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2015/11/04/red-sox-fans-are-about-find-out-what-the-deal-with-dave-dombrowski/Hi6ssaVBvqZ1vFf3JFH7kO/story.html" target=blank>enough stories</a> <a href="http://nesn.com/2015/11/dave-dombrowski-red-sox-open-to-free-agency-or-trades-in-quest-for-ace/" target=blank>have been written</a> <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/boston-red-sox-hot-stove-trades-free-agency-dave-dombrowski-ramirez-price-chapman-kimbrel-110415" target=blank>about it</a> over the past few weeks.
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But <em>whom</em> exactly could Dombrowski be open to trading? Which young talent will be going out the door to fill a need? Or could it be a more established player? Let's look broadly at the major league level and then at the minors. We won't look at every single player; just the bigger names that could or couldn't be moving this off-season.
<br /><br />
<strong>Major League Roster</strong>
<br /><br />
<strong><u>Going Nowhere</u></strong>
<br /><br />
Xander Bogaerts
<br /><br />
Mookie Betts
<br /><br />
David Ortiz
<br /><br />
Dustin Pedroia
<br /><br />
Rusney Castillo
<br /><br />
Hanley Ramirez
<br /><br />
Eduardo Rodriguez
<br /><br />
Rick Porcello
<br /><br />
Bogaerts and Betts are going nowhere. That is as close to a sure thing as you will find in your life.* David Ortiz is the heart and soul of this team and it would be career suicide for Dombrowski to cut him loose as one of his first acts, even if an argument could be made for it. Pedroia could be interesting trade bait but he is too popular and is a 10/5 guy this year. Castillo has shown flashes of the talent that brought him here which makes you want to see if he can build on that in 2016. Also, his $11M a year deal makes him a little hard to move. Hanley Ramirez is on this list because his contract is too big, almost as big as the disappointment we all felt watching him play last year. To move Ramirez would require Boston eating almost all of his contract <em>AND</em> finding a team stupid enough to take him in. Getting both of those things done is very unlikely.
<br /><br />
E-Rod is going nowhere; he is the best arm Boston has in the majors right now. Porcello is going nowhere because he has the same combination of cost and poor performance that makes Ramirez unmovable. Although Porcello's performance at the end of the year was encouraging.
<br /><br />
<strong><u>Unlikely to Move</u></strong>
<br /><br />
Wade Miley
<br /><br />
Pablo Sandoval
<br /><br />
Jackie Bradley, Jr.
<br /><br />
Blake Swihart
<br /><br />
Brock Holt
<br /><br />
Wade Miley was exactly the pitcher Boston thought they would be getting; an innings-eater who keeps you in games. You need guys like Miley in the back of your rotation and with an affordable two years left on his deal, Boston will want to hold on to him unless their off-season dealings leave them with no room for Miley.
<br /><br />
Sandoval performed poorly and has a big contract. But he didn't play <em>as</em> poorly as Ramirez and is paid less. He is also younger and there is a legitimate chance that Sandoval will play better in 2016. He is also a very likable player and that gives Sandoval some value. It is unlikely that Boston will be able to move him but a team looking for a third base presence that is marketable (like San Diego) may be at least willing to talk.
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I want to go on record as saying that I really hope that Boston keeps Bradley. He showed what he is capable of in the last two months of the season. His batting improved and he is already one of the best outfielders defensively in the game today. But those same two things, along with his age, make him an asset. In the end I think they don't trade him because Boston's outfield is so dynamic with him in it. But you cannot ignore what he gives Boston in trade value.
<br /><br />
Swihart is in the same boat as Bradley. He came on strong, showed his talent and value and is young. The difference here is that Christian Vazquez, who would have been the 2015 starter before Tommy John surgery, will likely start in Pawtucket to make sure his arm is 100%. That should ensure Swihart begins the season in Boston. But if/when Vazquez returns to Fenway, some decisions will have to be made.
<br /><br />
Brock Holt is a super-sub and a newly-minted All-Star. That gives him value, both as a player and an asset. He is so good at what he does I can't see Boston moving him on but he could be a piece of a lucrative deal.
<br /><br />
<strong><u>Don't Get Comfortable</u></strong>
<br /><br />
Travis Shaw
<br /><br />
Deven Marerro
<br /><br />
Clay Buchholz
<br /><br />
Joe Kelly
<br /><br />
<a name='more'></a>
I think Travis Shaw should go into Spring Training 2016 as the starting first baseman in Boston and it should be his job to lose. He did enough to earn that chance. But it looks like the Sox are going to persist in trying to make Hanley Ramirez a first baseman. Which should end in a spectacular flame-out. That sadly makes Shaw somewhat redundant and, since he is young and controllable, valuable as a piece in a trade.
<br /><br />
Marerro has the unfortunate circumstance of being a natural shortstop, despite putting in time at second and third last year. With that position locked down by Bogaerts, and a slew of younger infielders in-system for the Sox who could fill his position as a utility man, Marerro is a top-10 Boston prospect that they can afford to move.
<br /><br />
Buchholz is either a transcendent pitcher or a disappointing one. There is no in-between with Clay, no extended period of consistency. Boston picked up his $13M option, making him a very tempting piece in a deal. He has talent to spare, and that should entice more than one team to make a run for him.
<br /><br />
Kelly...he should be so much better than he is. The kid can hit triple digits with his fastball and has obvious talent. But he is less than the sum of his parts. But he did one very valuable thing for Boston; he finished the season with eight wins in nine starts. I am not going to blow smoke up your ass and say they were impressive wins. Not one had a Game Score of 65 or higher. But it was still eight wins in nine games. That, and the fact that he is 24, should allow Boston to use him in a deal.
<br /><br />
<strong>Minor League System</strong>
<br /><br />
<strong><u>Going Nowhere</u></strong>
<br /><br />
Yoan Moncada
<br /><br />
Rafael Devers
<br /><br />
Anderson Espinoza
<br /><br />
These are the three top prospects in the Boston system and it would take a special player to even see one of these guys considered as possible trade material.
<br /><br />
Moncada is the $31.5M Dollar Man who has a rare talent and could be a perpetual All-Star in the majors. The Red Sox will not trade him. Period.
<br /><br />
Rafael Devers is the future third baseman for Boston. He has performed well at every level, has a good arm and insane bat power for a third baseman. I would be shocked if he doesn't get a call up to AA Portland next year, which would put him there at the tender age of 19.
<br /><br />
Anderson Espinoza is the name you are least likely to recognize, but he may be the best prospect out of the three. He was good enough to play at Single A Greenville last year. He has an electric arm, with a fastball hitting 99 already. The buzz around Espinoza is getting louder and I would be shocked to see Dombrowski trade him.
<br /><br />
<strong><u>Unlikely to Move</u></strong>
<br /><br />
Brian Johnson
<br /><br />
Sam Travis
<br /><br />
Trey Ball
<br /><br />
Andrew Benintendi
<br /><br />
Brian Johnson is a smart pitcher and busts his butt. But he is a back-end starter at best and at age 24, I don't know how much value he presents in a trade. Maybe as a final piece but I think that it limits the chances of him being moved.
<br /><br />
Sam Travis is the best first baseman in the Boston system and that gives him some value to Boston. Whether that translates as value to other teams is questionable. His bat is what will likely determine his future and until that happens I think he just doesn't bring enough as a trade piece.
<br /><br />
Trey Ball is one of three top-20 prospects in Boston whom also happen to be lefty starting pitchers. A young kid with a raw talent, he could be a 2 or 3 in the majors but that is at least two years away. Again, he could be a final trade piece but I don't see a team willing to roll the trade dice on him this early in his career.
<br /><br />
Benintendi came out of nowhere in his sophomore year at Arkansas and parlayed an amazing year there into a $3.5M signing bonus and being Boston's first round pick in 2015. He has power and speed. But he plays center field so that does make his future in Boston a little more clouded, as outfielders is one thing the Sox have plenty of at the moment. I think it unlikely he could be traded but not impossible. The buzz surrounding him on draft day will have him in the minds of other teams if Boston comes to make a deal.
<br /><br />
<strong><u>Don't Get Comfortable</u></strong>
<br /><br />
Manuel Margot
<br /><br />
Henry Owens
<br /><br />
Javier Guerra
<br /><br />
Margot is an exciting young player. Good bat with some pop, fast on the bases (38 steals in Portland last year) and a very good defensive outfielder.
<br /><br />
It's the last word in that previous paragraph that makes him a valuable trade chip. With Betts, Castillo, Bradley, Cecchini, Benintendi and others, the outfield is very crowded now and in the future. Margot is, to be blunt, expendable. I do recognize that you could swap Margot and Benintendi. They are that close in the minds of a lot of people. But Margot could be the linchpin in any deal.
<br /><br />
Henry Owens is a potential 2-3 starter in an organization full of 2s and 3s. And I don't mean that as an insult. But Boston needs a front-line starter and Owens is the best pitching prospect they have to offer in a deal. He held his own in the majors last year and is only 23. That will make him a very attractive trading chip.
<br /><br />
Javier Guerra is a name most people probably don't recognize. He is down in single-A right now and is the best SS prospect in Boston's system. He is definitely a defense-first shortstop, but that defense is very good. He would be a piece of a larger deal, but that would be much more likely if Dombrowski decides to hold onto Marrero.
<br /><br />
So in looking at these two groups, here is the list of Boston players I feel are most likely to move in any deals this off-season:
<br /><br />
Travis Shaw
<br /><br />
Deven Marerro
<br /><br />
Clay Buchholz
<br /><br />
Joe Kelly
<br /><br />
Manuel Margot
<br /><br />
Henry Owens
<br /><br />
Javier Guerra
<br /><br />
And Jackie Bradley, Jr. should be a conditional member of this group since the temptation to cash in on his excellent finish in 2015 must be great. But as is, that group includes three of Boston's top 10 prospects. If Boston made the core of any deal for a top starter a grouping of Margot, Marrero and Owens/Kelly/Buchholz I think they'd be on to something. They could also try to pair some of these players with Sandoval if Boston is intent on moving him along with free agent Alex Gordon being a possible target.
<br /><br />
Regardless, it is going to be a very interesting, exciting and controversial off-season for Boston and their fans.
<br /><br />
--------------------------------
<br /><br />
* After writing this I read a post where someone made a convincing argument that Betts was expendable because of Bradley's emergence and the sheer value that he has on the trade market. I am not sure I agree with that as a reason to move someone who gave you 6.0 WAR last year, but you have to acknowledge the possibility.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-26560314238041617902015-10-15T14:29:00.003-04:002015-10-15T14:34:50.488-04:00Yankees: Heroes and Zeros<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRbVLRMMrw166nYkVm5V4xTiO8skmR7xw-44jMzvMRh5QdHn0buqyrEXHpRogiLr6U9GVtgMCp5UG5EO0f-aVzNpT8JxEcv5YbNnQ-B3RWX_bos1dBGwAfSpIS0z-bciOjNKgYfQhfZZc/s1600/chaseheadley.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRbVLRMMrw166nYkVm5V4xTiO8skmR7xw-44jMzvMRh5QdHn0buqyrEXHpRogiLr6U9GVtgMCp5UG5EO0f-aVzNpT8JxEcv5YbNnQ-B3RWX_bos1dBGwAfSpIS0z-bciOjNKgYfQhfZZc/s400/chaseheadley.jpg" /></a></div><br /><br />I did this earlier <a href="http://soxvsstripes.blogspot.com/2015/10/heroes-and-zeros-red-sox.html" target="blank">for the Red Sox</a>. In that case, it was about finding the bright spots in a season that resulted in yet-another last place finish. In this case, with the Yankees, it's more about digging for the disappointments.
<br /><br />
Make no mistake; this Yankee team over-performed relative to just about everybody's expectations. There were plenty of die-hard Yankee fans who looked at this team and thought third place would be doing well. But on the back of their most devastating late-game pitching duo since the late 90s and some productive years from aging veterans, the Yankees made it into the wild-card playoff game. And that is after leading the AL East for the majority of the season. All stats are courtesy of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/" target=blank>Fangraphs</a>.
<br /><br />
<strong>Heroes:</strong>
<br /><br />
<strong>Didi Gregorius</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 495 Plate Appearances | 132 H | 9 HR | 48 RBI | 35 BB | 95 K | .251 BA | .307 OBP | .369 SLG | .676 OPS | 1.8 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 578 Plate Appearances | 139 H | 9 HR | 56 RBI | 33 BB | 85 K | .265 BA | .318 OBP | .370 SLG | .688 OPS | 3.1 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<strong>Mark Teixeira</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 377 Plate Appearances | 77 H | 17 HR | 65 RBI | 41 BB | 73 K | .236 BA | .326 OBP | .433 SLG | .759 OPS | 1.5 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 462 Plate Appearances | 100 H | 31 HR | 79 RBI | 59 BB | 85 K | .255 BA | .357 OBP | .548 SLG | .906 OPS | 2.9 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<strong>Alex Rodriguez</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 407 Plate Appearances | 82 H | 15 HR | 57 RBI | 40 BB | 99 K | .229 BA | .312 OBP | .399 SLG | .711 OPS | 1.3 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 620 Plate Appearances | 131 H | 33 HR | 86 RBI | 84 BB | 145 K | .250 BA | .356 OBP | .486 SLG | .842 OPS | 2.7 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<strong>Dellin Betances</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 4-1 | 2.39 ERA | 66 Game Appearances | 82.7 IP | 116 K | 33 W | 1.10 WHIP | 1.5 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 6-4 | 1.50 ERA | 74 Game Appearances | 84.0 IP | 131 K | 40 W | 1.01 WHIP | 2.4 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<strong>Andrew Miller</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 5-2 | 2.59 ERA | 58 Game Appearances | 48.7 IP | 76 K | 21 W | 1.11 WHIP | 0.7 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 3-2 | 1.90 ERA | 60 Game Appearances | 61.2 IP | 100 K | 20 W | 0.86 WHIP | 36 SV | 2.0 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<strong>Nathan Eovaldi</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 8-9 | 4.51 ERA | 28 Games Started | 159.7 IP | 121 K | 48 W | 1.37 WHIP | 1.6 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 14-3 | 4.20 ERA | 27 Game Started | 154.1 IP | 121 K | 49 W | 1.45 WHIP | 3.2 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
As big a surprise as A-Rod was this year, I was blown away by what Didi Gregorius did for the Yankees. Viewed as placefiller for the retired Jeter, nobody was expecting much from Didi. The idea was his glove would be a little better but his bat would be worse. It would, in essence, be a wash.
<br /><br />
So here's a stat to tell you what actually happened: Didi's 3.1 WAR is the highest for a Yankee starting shortstop since 2009. He performed so far above and beyond expectations that he is, to me, the MVP of the team. He is only 25 years old and all he cost the Yankees in trade is Shane Greene. Without a doubt, this is one of Brian Cashman's best deals in his career.
<br /><br />
At the other end of the "unexpected production" scale are Teixeira and A-Rod. Both aging veterans, both with declining numbers, one injury-prone and the other coming off a year-long suspension...the expectation was that they would be average at best, being paid way too much for their production.
<br /><br />
And while they may still be overpaid, they also both pretty much doubled their expected WAR. Even playing only 111 games, Teixeira gave the Yankees a year's worth of production. And Rodriguez may have unintentionally shown all of baseball that giving an aging superstar a year off to rest could be beneficial. All his PED baggage aside, he was solid this year and is one of the big reasons the Yankees even had a chance to make it into the ALDS.
<br /><br />
But the main reason the Yankees made it that far was their 1-2 pitching punch at the end of the game. Betances and Miller reminded me a lot of the '96 Yankees with Mariano Rivera setting up John Wetteland. If the Yankees carried a lead into the eighth inning, or were even tied or just a run behind, they knew they had a good chance of winning with Betances and Miller pitching. That kind of support on the mound makes a good team better. And while they faded late in the season, there is no reason to doubt if they can do it again next year.
<a name='more'></a>
<br /><br />
As far as starters go, the big surprise was Nathan Eovaldi. Now, his supporting numbers are decidedly average. His WHIP is not impressive, his ERA meh. His BABIP is actually the highest of his career (.337). But yet he goes 14-3 and posts a 3.2 WAR, double his projection. Which is the difference between playing for the Marlins and playing for the Yankees.
<br /><br />
His support numbers are not far from what he during his 6-14 season with the Marlins in 2014. So, is Eovaldi better than his Marlin stats or does the better team disguise his flaws? Next year will tell us more about that but for now, doubling his projected WAR makes him a hero for the Yankees in 2015.
<br /><br />
And now, for the more disappointing Yankees of 2015.
<br /><br />
<strong>Chase Headley</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 570 Plate Appearances | 127 H | 20 HR | 73 RBI | 59 BB | 145 K | .253 BA | .340 OBP | .427 SLG | .767 OPS | 4.1 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 642 Plate Appearances | 150 H | 11 HR | 62 RBI | 51 BB | 135 K | .259 BA | .324 OBP | .369 SLG | .693 OPS | 1.5 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<strong>Jacoby Ellsbury</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 592 Plate Appearances | 152 H | 14 HR | 62 RBI | 43 BB | 86 K | .281 BA | .337 OBP | .424 SLG | .761 OPS | 4.0 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 501 Plate Appearances | 116 H | 7 HR | 33 RBI | 51 BB | 135 K | .257 BA | .318 OBP | .345 SLG | .663 OPS | 0.9 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<strong>CC Sabathia</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 7-8 | 4.35 ERA | 18 Games Started | 118.0 IP | 106 K | 30 W | 1.27 WHIP | 1.4 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 6-10 | 4.73 ERA | 29 Game Started | 167.1 IP | 137 K | 50 W | 1.42 WHIP | 1.2 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<strong>Ivan Nova</strong>
<br /><br />
Projected: 7-7 | 4.08 ERA | 18 Games Started | 121.3 IP | 103 K | 38 W | 1.33 WHIP | 1.2 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 6-11 | 5.07 ERA | 17 Game Started | 94.0 IP | 63 K | 33 W | 1.40 WHIP | 0.5 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
Chase Headley was a big free-agent signing for the Yankees in 2014. Expected to be the full-time third baseman in 2015 and beyond (he has three years and 39M left on his deal), the Yankees needed Headley to be productive.
<br /><br />
He was anything but. Despite almost 650 plate appearances, he under-performed his projections across the board. His fielding was worse than league average. His 23 errors at third lead the AL for the position. Chase Headley was a disappointment and the Yankees have to be thinking about what to do if he plays this way in 2016.
<br /><br />
Projecting near 600 plate appearances for Jacoby Ellsbury was adorable. There is a reason Boston fans weren't <em>that</em> torn up about Ellsbury leaving the cozy confines of Fenway Park. Hitting that mark two years in a row (2013-14) was an anomaly, not a new standard. He is fragile. When Ellsbury is healthy, he is a very good player. But he is not going to replicate that 2011 monster season, and New York paid him like he would. Now that he is 32, the very real possibility is that this is close to the new normal for Ellsbury, and that should frighten a lot of people. On the upside, they are only stuck with him through the next two Presidential elections.
<br /><br />
Putting CC here kind of makes me feel bad. With his alcohol problems and rehab, it explains some of his performance. Nevertheless the Yankees needed Sabathia to hit a certain level of performance. And he somehow pitched 11 more games than projected yet gave the Yankees less WAR. His control was poor and that is what hurt him the most. Can CC ever reach his old form? Being 35 and rehab makes it questionable. The Yanks owe CC 25M next year and another 25M in 2017 unless CC blows his left shoulder out in 2016. Then it's just a 5M buyout.
<br /><br />
Ivan Nova is a Yankee prospect. In his first three full seasons he went a combined 37-18 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.366 WHIP. Then he got hurt in 2014, starting only four games. The expectation was that Nova would return to form. Instead, he seriously dented the Yankee rotation.
<br /><br />
17 starts, a 1.40 WHIP and 0.5 WAR. That is the full extent of Nova's contributions. He lost 11 games in half of a season, which is impressive in a way.
<br /><br />
The truth is that the Yankees were in a weird spot in 2015. With a lot of veterans over-performing and an unexpected 1-2 combo in the 'pen, the Yanks were in playoff contention. And at the deadline, Cashman had a real Sophie's Choice: either stay the course, keep his youngsters and hope the over-performance held through the post-season or trade some young talent for reinforcements and try to win that 2015 title.
<br /><br />
He made the right call. Truth is, even with some trades I don't think the Yankees were close to deep enough to win a title. But in Judge, Bird and Severino (among others) the Yankees have some really good young talent to build a competitive team for years to come. And they would have lost some of those players in a deadline deal.
<br /><br />
Viewing the 2015 Yankee season as anything less than a success is being shortsighted. And while 2016 may see a drop off (A-Rod and Tex really over-performed), this is going to be a good team going into the latter half of the 2010s.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-2480476748411302332015-10-07T14:41:00.001-04:002015-10-07T14:42:36.175-04:00Heroes and Zeros: Red Sox<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixcwqOiXCFjVZ7ABjNhA1A0-YQTRI_cYtyK-_AWqNt9VCNwcRbEp8K_TJNpT3bdOfo7w5MfhMUTeKYXB4sEi3BRHzLLHCo-ewPqiEpsLsa1uGuZiqqnXPRJdqrFUVKz3XHzBJPSE6dFCE/s1600/hanleywall.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixcwqOiXCFjVZ7ABjNhA1A0-YQTRI_cYtyK-_AWqNt9VCNwcRbEp8K_TJNpT3bdOfo7w5MfhMUTeKYXB4sEi3BRHzLLHCo-ewPqiEpsLsa1uGuZiqqnXPRJdqrFUVKz3XHzBJPSE6dFCE/s400/hanleywall.jpg" /></a></div>
<Br /><br />For finishing in last for the 3rd out of four years, there is a lot of positive momentum in the Boston franchise going into the off-season. With a young outfield clicking on all cylinders, a start shortstop in the making, a young catcher breaking out and a couple of bright spots on the mound, there is reason to believe that Boston can be a contender in 2016 with a couple of key moves.
<br /><br />
But Boston being in last this year is also the function of a horrendous start and the failure of some key free agents. So let's look at projections from April and where some of the players ended up (all stats courtesy of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/" target=blank>Fangraphs</a>) at season's end.
<br /><br />
<strong>Heroes:</strong>
<br /><br />
<b>Mookie Betts</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 582 Plate Appearances | 148 H | 13 HR | 80 RBI | 50 BB | 73 K | .289 BA | .350 OBP | .428 SLG | .779 OPS | 3.6 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 654 Plate Appearances | 174 H | 18 HR | 77 RBI | 46 BB | 82 K | .291 BA | .341 OBP | .479 SLG | .820 OPS | 4.8 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>Jackie Bradley, Jr.</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 116 Plate Appearances | 24 H | 2 HR | 11 RBI | 9 BB | 28 K | .234 BA | .302 OBP | .349 SLG | .650 OPS | 0.4 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 255 Plate Appearances | 55 H | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 27 BB | 69 K | .249 BA | .335 OBP | .498 SLG | .833 OPS | 2.5 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>Xander Bogaerts</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 552 Plate Appearances | 130 H | 16 HR | 63 RBI | 41 BB | 114 K | .260 BA | .320 OBP | .416 SLG | .736 OPS | 2.3 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 654 Plate Appearances | 196 H | 7 HR | 84 RBI | 32 BB | 101 K | .320 BA | .355 OBP | .421 SLG | .776 OPS | 4.3 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>Blake Swihart</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 92 Plate Appearances | 21 H | 2 HR | 10 RBI | 5 BB | 17 K | .245 BA | .288 OBP | .365 SLG | .653 OPS | 0.3 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 309 Plate Appearances | 79 H | 5 HR | 31 RBI | 18 BB | 77 K | .274 BA | .319 OBP | .392 SLG | .711 OPS | 1.5 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>David Ortiz</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 526 Plate Appearances | 126 H | 23 HR | 78 RBI | 62 BB | 88 K | .277 BA | .364 OBP | .492 SLG | .856 OPS | 1.8 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 614 Plate Appearances | 79 H | 37 HR | 108 RBI | 77 BB | 95 K | .273 BA | .360 OBP | .553 SLG | .913 OPS | 2.8 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>Wade Miley</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 11-10 | 4.16 ERA | 29 Games Started | 176 IP | 137 K | 59 W | 1.35 WHIP | 1.3 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 11-11 | 4.46 ERA | 32 Games Started | 193.2 IP | 147 K | 64 W | 1.37 WHIP | 2.6 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>Eduardo Rodriguez</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 1-1 | 4.41 ERA | 3 Games Started | 18 IP | 13 K | 7 W | 1.40 WHIP | 0.1 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 10-6 | 3.85 ERA | 21 Games Started | 121.2 IP | 98 K | 37 W | 1.29 WHIP | 1.7 WAR
<br /><br />
If you were alive in the mid to late 70s and a Sox fan, then you know who the "Gold Dust Twins" were. Fred Lynn and Jim Rice came into the majors at the same time in 1975. Lynn won the MVP and Rookie of the Year award that year while Rice was RoY runner-up. From 1975-1980 they were one of the most potent 1-2 outfield combos in the game. Then the Sox traded Lynn to the Angels for Jim Dorsey, Joe Rudi and Frank Tanana rather than pay him what he was worth (and screwing up his contract extension going into free agency). And the Gold Dust Twins were no more.
<br /><br />
Betts and Bradley, Jr. are not the Gold Dust Twins, even though I think Betts definitely has it in him to reach Fred Lynn numbers on a yearly basis. But this a young duo that gives the Sox some of the best outfield defense in the majors. And with Bradley now hitting major league pitching successfully, the expectation is going to be seeing these two gentlemen make more than a few All-Star games, with Betts even pushing for MVP a couple of years down the line. Yeah, he's that good.
<br /><br />
One guy who might keep Betts from winning an MVP is his teammate at shortstop. In 2015 Xander Bogaerts finally grew into the expectations everyone had set for him. He saw a quantum leap in his offensive numbers in 2015 and was arguably the best overall shortstop in the AL this year. His line this year might even garner him a few goodwill votes for MVP seeing as he kept Boston from completely sucking this year and as a makeup for keeping him off the All-Star team.
<a name='more'></a>
<br /><br />
Blake Swihart never should have been in the majors in 2015. But when Vazquez went down in the pre-season and Ryan Hannigan broke his hand, Boston was forced to bring him up. And Swihart <em>struggled</em> in the beginning. But he worked <em>hard</em> and completely turned it around by season's end. He gave Boston slightly above league average defense and hit better than anyone expected from him. With Vazquez coming back in 2016 Boston could keep Swihart as his backup, or they may be tempted to use him as a very valuable trading chip. Personally I think that is risky until you know what you have with Vazquez.
<br /><br />
Then you have the seemingly immortal David Ortiz (cue the naysayers about the 2003 test). Nevertheless, he blew his pre-season projections out of the water. He finally broke through the 500 lifetime homerun barrier and is on the verge of 600 2B for his career. He registered 100+ RBI for the third season in a row. And while people debate (and will continue to debate) about his HoF voting future, there is no denying that he gave Boston everything they should have expected (and more) over the second-half of 2015.
<br /><br />
I suppose it can be seen as damning with faint praise to laud a pitcher who did...what you expected of him. But considering what a train wreck Boston's starting pitching was in 2015 I think you have to note that Wade Miley did exactly what Boston brought him here to do. He ate innings, kept the Sox in games and provided a relatively steady presence in the rotation. His 2.6 WAR was also double his original projection. With reasonable salaries over the next two years ($6.1M in 2016, $8.9M in 2017), Boston should keep Miley right where he is.
<br /><br />
If there was one bright presence in the rotation this year, it was the emergence of Eduardo Rodriguez as a major league starting pitcher. the 22-year-old rookie went 10-6 with a sub-four ERA. While his K/BB ratio was a little low (2.65) his 1.29 WHIP was average. But at only 22, he has a ton of potential.
<br /><br />
And now...the more disappointing members of the 2015 Boston Red Sox
<br /><br />
<b>Rick Porcello</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 13-10 | 3.72 ERA | 29 Games Started | 183.7 IP | 131 K | 42 W | 1.24 WHIP | 2.4 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 9-15 | 4.92 ERA | 28 Games Started | 172.0 IP | 149 K | 38 W | 1.36 WHIP | 1.6 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>Justin Masterson</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 9-10 | 4.28 ERA | 26 Games Started | 157.7 IP | 134 K | 71 W | 1.40 WHIP | 0.9 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 4-2 | 5.61 ERA | 9 Games Started | 59.1 IP | 49 K | 27 W | 1.60 WHIP | -0.2 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>Pablo Sandoval</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 588 Plate Appearances | 150 H | 19 HR | 83 RBI | 39 BB | 85 K | .279 BA | .328 OBP | .454 SLG | .782 OPS | 3.1 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 505 Plate Appearances | 115 H | 10 HR | 47 RBI | 25 BB | 73 K | .245 BA | .292 OBP | .366 SLG | .658 OPS | -2.0 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
<b>Hanley Ramirez</b>
<br /><br />
Projected: 495 Plate Appearances | 120 H | 16 HR | 70 RBI | 46 BB | 95 K | .271 BA | .345 OBP | .455 SLG | .800 OPS | 3.0 WAR
<br /><br />
Actual: 430 Plate Appearances | 100 H | 19 HR | 53 RBI | 21 BB | 71 K | .249 BA | .291 OBP | .426 SLG | .717 OPS | -1.8 WAR
<br /><br /><br /><br />
When you bring in free agents to make your team better, you are addressing needs. What killed the Red Sox more than anything in 2015 was that their free agents, almost to a man, were horrible. And the four listed above were the worst of the bunch.
<br /><br />
Hundreds of years from now, baseball scholars will still be asking this question: "Why did Boston give Porcello an extension before he pitched in 2015?" It was an extension based on past performance and how Porcello looked to be projecting based on his age. Which wasn't completely stupid. Porcello's top two comparables coming into this season at age 25 were Jon Garland and Greg Maddux. The problem is the extension pays Porcello like he is Maddux and he couldn't even pitch like Jon Garland. I don't want to rip too much on Porcello because at least his WAR was positive and he is still young enough to turn it around. Plus, his work in August and September was light-years better that the rest of the season. That may be whistling past the graveyard. But no one is taking Porcello on at 20M+ per year for the next four years. So the hope in Boston has to be that Porcello carries that second-half improvement into 2016.
<br /><br />
The Sox don't have to worry about Masterson in 2016, which may be the best element of the contract he signed. Boston needed Masterson to give them a Wade Miley season and he couldn't get it done. That winning 4-2 record disguises a pretty abysmal year, one that went off the rails so much that Boston sent him to the minors and then cut him loose in August. Which sucked because he was originally a homegrown player and it was great to have him back. He just couldn't get it done.
<br /><br />
But as disappointing as those two were, by far the most disappointing players in Boston this year were their two marquee free agent signings. If you think of Betts and Bradley as the Gold Dust Twins, Sandoval and Ramirez are the Lead Twins. They're boring to watch and spending too much time around them is likely a health hazard.
<br /><br />
Sandoval was a massive disappointment at third. Pablo had his worst season since 2012. His batting was weak and his defense was hard to watch. And Boston got all that for the low price of $17.6M this year and another $70M+ over the next four. Good times!! Do you know who Sandoval projects as right now as a hitter? Richie Hebner. And if you just asked "Who is Richie Hebner?" then you see the problem here.
<br /><br />
But at least the Sandoval move made some kind of sense. Third base was a black hole in 2014, Boston had no one in the system to fill the space and Sandoval has proven he can hit in the post-season. Here is another player Boston can't likely move. So they have to hope Sandoval commits himself to getting better in the off-season and drops some weight. Because his second half of 2015 absolutely sucked (.210 BA | .602 OPS | 3 HR | 17 RBI).
<br /><br />
And then you come to Hanley Ramirez, the one player Boston absolutely <em>must</em> move. As in "Eat as much of the $90M he has left in his deal as you need to" move.
<br /><br />
Pablo may have been atrocious. Porcello may have been painful to watch. But I never felt like either player quit in the field. Ramirez made quitting on balls in left field into an art form. Those 19 home runs of his mean nothing because his defense was such absolute crap that it cost Boston more runs than he ever could have provided with his bat (look it up). And it is no coincidence that as soon as Ramirez was out of the lineup that Boston's all-around play improved. He brings nothing to this team except an unwillingness to work hard and putrid glove work. This is what I said back before the season started when talking about Ramirez.
<br /><br />
<blockquote>
<em>"Ramirez may have a higher ceiling on his possible 2015 impact...but he has a lower floor as well. Risk is a part of any business, true. But $20-$22M a year is a lot of risk."</em>
</blockquote>
<br /><br />
Ramirez found that floor like a fat kid looking for cake. And then fell right through it into the basement.
<br /><br />
I truly believe that Boston can survive with Pablo and Porcello. Especially if the Sox sign one or two pitching free agents this off-season and/or trade for a hot young arm.
<br /><br />
But Ramirez on the team means your outfield, which was your best part of the team in the second half in 2015, gets messed up. Or God forbid, you put him at first. He is the one player that absolutely cannot return in 2016 if Boston is to make it back to the post-season any time soon.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-47345295118350674652015-09-16T11:28:00.000-04:002015-09-16T11:28:04.258-04:00Should David Ortiz Be In The Hall of Fame?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY-2nl3rC0eC_6pVf7tdYtcCMQ1PbMXP2cIljDQHTmPTaqAaejLcpZ2dqwxDmTrI_zAqYQW_zCzAr0dMaYgLFzR35-wlDJ_2QQcr4aqqoTqZP7nMDMrwbAYM2sa72bBi31K9idW6ZSei8/s1600/ortizwistful.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY-2nl3rC0eC_6pVf7tdYtcCMQ1PbMXP2cIljDQHTmPTaqAaejLcpZ2dqwxDmTrI_zAqYQW_zCzAr0dMaYgLFzR35-wlDJ_2QQcr4aqqoTqZP7nMDMrwbAYM2sa72bBi31K9idW6ZSei8/s400/ortizwistful.jpg" /></a></div>The other day I noted on our FB page that Ortiz is likely to end his baseball career with the following numbers, should he play next year:
<blockquote>
500+ HR<br />
1600+ RBI<br />
600+ 2B
</blockquote>
You can also throw in the following two lines:
<blockquote>
1100+ Extra base hits<br />
1250+ BB
</blockquote>
Should that come to pass, David Ortiz would be only the third player in Major League history to have those numbers. The other two are Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. Which, in its own way, is supremely fitting. One man did it clean and was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The other used PEDs and may never get in.
<br /><br />
So should David Ortiz retire with the above numbers, should he get in the Hall of Fame?
<br /><br />
First, let's remove the "No DH" argument from this discussion. The DH is here. It is a recognized position. And punishing a player for that is like not voting for a pitcher in the MVP race. Which is to say, it's stupid. So, forget he is a DH.
<br /><br />
On the numbers alone, does David Ortiz have the resume?
<br /><br />
To the above stats, add in nine All-Star Games, the 2004 ALCS MVP, the 2013 World Series MVP and three World Series rings. Also add in the 2005 AL Hank Aaron award for best hitter and six Silver Slugger awards. Never mind the clutch hits year-in and year-out.
<br /><br />
I would say that, on the numbers <em>alone</em>, that David Ortiz should make the Hall of Fame.
<br /><br />
But it is never that easy, is it?
<br /><br />
David Ortiz was also named as being on the infamous 2003 list of MLB players who tested positive for one (or more) of a number of substances in the "Survey Test" that ultimately forced the MLBPA to agree to drug-testing in Major League Baseball. And in a time where players like Bonds and Roger Clemens may very well never be voted into the Hall of Fame, a time where a current player like A-Rod will also likely never be in the Hall of Fame because of his admitted PED use, why would it be any different for David Ortiz?
<br /><br />
Allow me to be the Devil's Advocate for a moment.
<br /><br />
The 2003 list of substances...no one knows exactly what was on that list of substances beyond the fact that it was <em>more</em> than just steroids or what we commonly refer to as PEDs nowadays. Widely thought to be on that list as well as steroids were recreational drugs and amphetamines.
<br /><br />
Amphetamines should be of particular note because they have been pervasive in baseball for decades. The infamous "greenies" in Jim Bouton's book <em>Ball Four</em> were taken by countless players, including many Hall of Famers.
<br /><br />
So could David Ortiz have been using steroids or another PED? Yes, that is possible. But it is also equally possible he took a stimulant that was accepted as a part of baseball culture or a substance that was added to a supplement without his knowledge.
<a name='more'></a>
<br /><br />
And it should be noted that, at the time of the test, some drugs that are considered PEDs now <em>were perfectly legal</em> to purchase and use in major league baseball. For example, Mike Piazza <a href="http://www.metstoday.com/8374/12-13-offseason/mike-piazza-admits-peds-use/" target=_blank>admitted to buying and using Androstenedione</a> at a time when it wasn't against the rules to do so. Whether that keeps him out of the Hall of Fame is questionable, as his vote total keeps increasing since he was first eligible three years ago.
<br /><br />
But we don't know. Neither does David Ortiz if you take him at his word. And it is true that he cannot look at the list to find out <em>why</em> he tested positive. The list has been sealed by the court. Which means that Ortiz is accused of testing positive but he can't find out why.
<br /><br />
All in all, I think that puts Ortiz more in the Mike Piazza category than the A-Rod category. Whether you, or the HoF voters for that matter, feel the same is up to you.
<br /><br />
If anything, the more damning piece of evidence against Ortiz making the Hall of Fame is this: 50.0. That is David Ortiz's WAR over the course of his career. Which ranks him 189th All-Time.
<br /><br />
And if you look at his <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/jaws.shtml" target=blank>JAWS numbers</a> they are 50.0 / 33.7 / 41.6. That is Ortiz's WAR, his seven-year peak WAR (not necessarily consecutive) and then the two numbers are averaged for the JAWS number. So this says that Ortiz has earned 50.0 WAR over his career, his best seven years total 33.7 WAR and his JAWS number is 41.6.
<br /><br />
The average for a 1B is 65.9 / 42.4 / 54.2. Ortiz ranks 33rd. And of all first-basemen in the Hall, only four rank lower than Ortiz. They all played before World War 2, two of them before 1900.
<br /><br />
It is true that being a DH negatively affects your WAR because you don't get any defensive WAR. But Ortiz ranks higher than plenty of first basemen who played the field all the time, like Don Mattingly and Gil Hodges.
<br /><br />
The upshot of all that is that even with Ortiz's huge numbers, he has not had an overwhelming effect on Boston's regular season. By comparison, Albert Pujols has a collective WAR of 99.3. Frank Thomas had one of 73.7. Even Mark Teixeira, whom I would never argue for inclusion into the HoF, has a collective WAR of 52.4 and a JAWS of 45.2.
<br /><br />
The counter-point to those stats? Ortiz's <em>post-season</em> numbers are insane.
<br /><br />
In three World Series, here is Ortiz's stat line:
<br /><br />
14 G | .455 BA | .576 OBP | 1.372 OPS | 3 HR | 14 RBI | 14 Runs Scored
<br /><br />
In 17 post-season series (8 ALDS, 6 ALCS, 3 WS) here are Ortiz's collective stats:
<br /><br />
82 G | .295 BA | .409 OBP | .962 OPS | 17 HR | 60 RBI | 51 Runs scored
<br /><br />
Those are crazy numbers, and his World Series numbers are on a level that boggles the mind. They are better than Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Hank Greenberg and most other Hall of Famers. And that has to count when considering a player for the Hall. The totality of their work includes the post-season.
<br /><br />
So considering all of the above...does David Ortiz belong in the Hall of Fame?
<br /><br />
By the numbers? Yes I think he does. Between his post-season dominance and (likely) being only the third player to record 500+ HR, 1600+ RBI and 600+ doubles in his career, I think it's enough. Not first-ballot, but it's enough.
<br /><br />
But the positive 2003 test is going to hang over Ortiz. Even though the Players Association and MLB have said that <A href="http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=li-novitzkylist090809" target=blank>13 results were inconclusive</a>. Ortiz's test was one of those 13. Remember, there was controversy over that list total.
<br /><br />
But here is how I see that.
<br /><br />
Ortiz has never tested positive in any test since then. And may not have tested positive in that 2003 test. Which he (and we) can never find out because the court sealed the records.
<br /><br />
Ortiz has never been linked to a scandal like BALCO (like Bonds)
<br /><br />
Ortiz has never been linked to a scandal like Biogensis (like A-Rod)
<br /><br />
Ortiz has never had anyone testify in court that they injected him with steroids (like Clemens)
<br /><br />
Ortiz has never had anyone claim they saw him buy or use any PEDs
<br /><br />
Ortiz has never admitted to using steroids or an illegal PED (like A-Rod, or McGwire, or Pettitte)
<br /><br />
No one can definitively claim that Ortiz has used steroids or an illegal PED.
<br /><br />
Now, if this changes, if evidence comes forward that shows that Ortiz used steroids or an illegal PED, I will change my tune 100% and say he shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame ever.
<br /><br />
But until that day comes, using that 2003 test to tar David Ortiz with the same brush used on A-Rod, Bonds and the rest isn't fair.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-72177215466203225872015-08-19T10:26:00.002-04:002015-08-19T10:26:33.218-04:00Dombrowski In, Cherington Out<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH05FuvUZUUzOqdlblV6iAKuuETe9cLWGoKXKmRUFh2WzKo8QtyEq8we-Lj9aM4XwJx3wSbOGAhYX3BNg5bZqKSUupUMLJV3zY7VIMsL_6iq-13xK8G1OiYH75ZMxCO-ZoigMwAKbloyE/s1600/dombrowski.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH05FuvUZUUzOqdlblV6iAKuuETe9cLWGoKXKmRUFh2WzKo8QtyEq8we-Lj9aM4XwJx3wSbOGAhYX3BNg5bZqKSUupUMLJV3zY7VIMsL_6iq-13xK8G1OiYH75ZMxCO-ZoigMwAKbloyE/s400/dombrowski.jpg" /></a></div>Less than two weeks after saying they weren't going to pursue hiring David Dombrowski, the Red Sox <a href="http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/13465358/boston-red-sox-hire-dave-dombrowski-president-baseball-operations" target="_blank">have hired Dombrowski as their new president of baseball operations</a>.
<br /><br />
The immediate impact of this hiring is that Ben Cherington is going to step down as general manager of the Sox. He was offered the chance to stay in the GM position by Dombrowski. But Cherington was never likely going to stay in what he (rightly) saw as a diminished role with Dombrowski coming on board.
<br /><br />
This is the biggest front-office shake-up since Tito Francona and Theo Epstein left at the end of 2011. And with Cherington's eventual departure (he is staying to help in the transitional period) this marks the end of the Lucchino - Epstein Era in Boston (Cherington was heavily promoted by Lucchino and Epstein through the Boston ranks). With Dombrowski taking over, the possibility exists for massive change in the Boston organization.
<br /><br />
Dombrowksi and John Henry have a history together. Dombrowski was GM of the Florida Marlins for a four-year period when Henry owned that franchise. So perhaps this signing isn't that surprising.
<br /><br />
Dombrowski also has a reputation for making bold trades. He's the man who traded for Miguel Cabrera, David Price and Max Scherzer in Detroit. More recently, he's the guy who fleeced the Red Sox in the Rick Porcello trade. So the odds are likely that things will not remain the same in the Boston clubhouse over the next few months.
<br /><br />
That likely will not extend to John Farrell. Despite back-to-back last place finishes (if things remain the same the rest of 2015), it would be bad form (and bad press) to can a manager who just started chemo for his cancer. You could also make the argument that Farrell has not been given the right players to have this team in contention. Health issues aside, I would guess that Farrell would still be given a season to prove he can win with Dombrowski running the show. I would guess that goes for his staff as well.
<br /><br />
And just what will the Red Sox look like in 2016?
<br /><br />
Here's the thing; <em>everything</em> is on the table. Dombrowski has no allegiance to any of these players. He didn't draft them or watch them come up through the ranks. He didn't trade for any of them. And that means that some players Red Sox fans consider untouchable may not actually be so.
<a name='more'></a>
<br /><br />
That said, there is a core of young talent here that Dombrowski wouldn't trade unless a mind-blowing deal came along. Eduardo Rodriguez, Bogaerts, Betts and possibly Bradley are on that list. Brock Holt keeps proving he belongs here. Travis Shaw has done nothing to deny him a chance to be the every-day first baseman. There is talent on this team, the kind of talent you can build on to make a competitive squad.
<br /><br />
There are also the under-performing pieces of Porcello, Sandoval and Ramirez. Those three signings - and their sub-par performances - are what likely did Cherington in. They are also <em>expensive</em> under-performing pieces. Which means that Boston is likely stuck with them unless Dombrowski can find a sucker to take them in deals without having to eat too much salary. My guess is that won't happen so Boston is going to have to work around these players being on their roster.
<br /><br />
Then there are the veterans that you could trade and possibly get something worthwhile in return. The problem for Boston is that those two players are named "Ortiz" and "Pedroia". Both also have no-trade rights. And are insanely popular in Boston.
<br /><br />
So that is a challenge for Dombrowski. The veterans he could trade for actual value he can't trade. And most of veterans he <em>can</em> trade are overpaid and playing like hot garbage.
<br /><br />
The only real pieces he could trade and possibly get value for are Clay Buchholz (if Boston activates his $13M option for 2016) and Junichi Tazawa. The problem there is that Buchholz - even with his uneven performance - is your most talented pitcher and Tazawa has pretty much been the only bright spot in an over-worked bullpen. Of the two, I think Buchholz is more likely to go. If Henry Owens continues to pitch well and the Sox sign a good free-agent arm (hi there Jordan Zimmermann!) then Buchholz becomes expendable.
<br /><br />
Dombrowski could also try to move some prospects for established players. If there is one area that Cherington excelled in it was building Boston's farm system. Ben may have been a lousy evaluator of major-league players but he knew how to bring in solid prospects.
<br /><br />
Dombrowski has no connection to these prospects, which would make it easier for him to contemplate trading them if needed. The one that stands out to me is Manuel Margot. Whom I like <em>a lot</em>. But with Betts, Castillo and Bradley in Boston, he is a young talented outfielder that Dombrowski could use as a major piece of any deal.
<br /><br />
2015 has been a bust. And Boston's ownership has taken steps to try and ensure that doesn't happen again in 2016. For that, Boston's fanbase should be grateful. But Dombrowski has his work cut out for him. Even with the young talent on the team, the poor play and over-sized salaries of many veteran players will make a winning record, let alone a playoff spot, a challenge to achieve in 2016.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-18982709643087159742015-07-30T11:07:00.001-04:002015-07-30T11:27:22.713-04:00Game Review: Out of the Park Baseball 16I took control of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2015, kicking Ruben Amaro, Jr. to the curb. The mandate from management? "Try to not suck."
<br /><br />
By the spring of 2019, the Phillies had just finished winning back-to-back titles. Mission accomplished.
<br /><br />
I took control of the San Diego Padres, kicking A.J. Preller to the curb. The mandate from management. "Try to not suck."
<br /><br />
By the spring of 2022, the Padres had run off a string of five straight NL West titles and captured three World Series trophies. Mission accomplished.
<br /><br />
Have you ever heard of the living legend Larry Townsend? He plays in the Four Counties League in Ireland for the Ennis Music. From Port Alfred Bagotville in Quebec, Canada, Townsend has won seven MVP awards in his 12-year career. The Music have brought home the championship eight times in the last 10 years.
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This may be news to you since I created the Four Counties League and the Music, along with 15 other teams. I set up the rules and parameters, including how often foreign players became available through scouting, which is how L.T. came to be.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwfomQUDA5hVxet1Y26rwc6bsPqkfnbVIue80KZowYIzqkw0u9Us4HQnk0TIAGrsV8Ju_9M1smPFzZCaWPlJVB1SxqozOukm6p1Gx8wPKBo-YU2NfrrUJ8NqeV-7yV19k4B6-kL54G1NA/s1600/LT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwfomQUDA5hVxet1Y26rwc6bsPqkfnbVIue80KZowYIzqkw0u9Us4HQnk0TIAGrsV8Ju_9M1smPFzZCaWPlJVB1SxqozOukm6p1Gx8wPKBo-YU2NfrrUJ8NqeV-7yV19k4B6-kL54G1NA/s400/LT.jpg" /></a></div>
<br /><br >
Three examples of what you can do with Out of the Park 16, the latest baseball management sim from Out of the Park Developments. This game is both deep and wide in what it brings to the table.
<br /><br />
I am a big fan of sports management sims. To now my favorite has been Football Manager. But I think, for me, OOTP 16 surpasses it. Not only because it is a baseball sim, but because the versatility of the game allows you to indulge almost any baseball fantasy.
<br /><br >
Want to take control of a franchise from it's inception to the modern day? You can do that. Want to do the same thing but allow for non-historical trades and signings so Babe Ruth stays on the Yankees? Or maybe have Ruth...and Ty Cobb...and Rogers Hornsby on the same team. Ladies and Gentlemen, your 1921 World Series Champion Boston Braves.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwXvApslRwziWTysnrwdM2JNvTLbXdM-e0qnyd0tNG3Ry1ACsAtw4GuRw8AD4Q89LzBzKkneg98XrLYMpDdVsAGqlI2df4Pr0lNjk8QFJC47xNnszgKf43IGCG-W-3hev5rSHaCsLN6oI/s1600/Braves1921.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwXvApslRwziWTysnrwdM2JNvTLbXdM-e0qnyd0tNG3Ry1ACsAtw4GuRw8AD4Q89LzBzKkneg98XrLYMpDdVsAGqlI2df4Pr0lNjk8QFJC47xNnszgKf43IGCG-W-3hev5rSHaCsLN6oI/s400/Braves1921.jpg" /></a></div>
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Or maybe you want to run a parallel league to the majors? You can do that. A small independent league situated only in Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas? You can do that. A massive international league that covers all of Europe? You can do that too.
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OOTP 16 allows you to indulge almost any idea you want, small or large. You can do it as the general manager, controlling the high-level decisions, drafts and trades. Or you can be the manager, handling every in-game detail from lineups to whether you want your batter to bunt or swing away.
<br /><br />
If there is one drawback it is that the learning curve can be a little steep. They have a good online manual you can access from the program but it still takes some trial-and-error to get comfortable. I also personally had problems with keeping a historical team from moving in a historical league, or replacing them with a different team. OOTP 16 would inevitably replace my custom team with the historical franchise when it moved. But that could have been me missing the how-to on avoiding that problem.
<br /><br />
If you do play a historical league and allow for non-historical trades and player development, you can compare the player's career in your league to their actual historical performance.
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For example, in my Boston Braves game, I signed a young man in 1914 by the name of Guy Morton from Vernon, CT. In real life he played for Cleveland. He had an average career, going 99-88 over 11 seasons.
<br /><br />
In my game he is a monster. In 10 years he has a record of 204-126, a career WAR of 58.9 and looks like he isn't going to stop any time soon. It's just one more cool piece to a very fun game.
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It is also customizable. I downloaded a mod that had MLB quality logos and uniforms for over 1000 potential teams. There are others that modify teams, rosters...anything you can think of. OOTP 16 allows you to alter existing ballparks or build new ones. You can fire and hire managers and staff for not only your team, but your minor league system. Jack up ticket prices, rename end-of-season award, give each player a nickname...if I listed every thing you could do to with this game I would be here for weeks.
<br /><br />
In the end, OOTP 16 is just a lot of fun. Controlling a franchise, watching the seasons unfold, celebrating a division title and then crying as your star pitcher blows out his elbow before the World Series (it happens). You can download it for purchase <a href="http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/out-of-the-park-baseball/" target=blank>directly from OOTP</a> or on Steam. If you do download it on Steam, it will let you know how may hours you have played the game.
<br /><br />
I am currently on hour 165.
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I love this game.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-65558755893334964682015-07-13T12:59:00.000-04:002015-07-13T12:59:38.242-04:00Boston Needs to Ask Just One QuestionCan the Red Sox leap over four other teams?
<br /><br />
That is what this all boils down to as we approach the All-Star break. It's not about being 6.5 games out. It's about being in last.
<br /><br />
If the Sox were in second place and 6.5 games out the calculus changes. You are only focused on one team. You have to outplay that one team and if you do, you are in good shape for the post-season.
<br /><br />
But the Sox have to outplay the rest of the entire A.L. East. It's not about hoping the Yanks play .450 ball the rest of the year. It's that not only do the Yanks have to play .450 ball, but so do Tampa, Baltimore and Toronto. And the Sox can't play .500 ball. They have to, at a minimum, play .560 or better.
<br /><br />
Does anyone believe that is possible with this team? True, over their last 15 games they are 10-5. But that is a statistical outlier over the course of this season. Boston has been a mediocre team at best in 2015 and nothing has happened to really change that.
<br /><br />
I waited a long time before writing this because it was, frankly, becoming a chore to write the same story over and over and over again. Of untapped potential and short-circuited comebacks. The truth is this; the way this team is built is not conducive to Boston being competitive this year. And I would <em><strong>love</strong></em> to be wrong about this but I don't think I am.
<br /><br />
There are some good things about this team. Bogaerts has broken out this year; he is arguably the best SS in the American League right now. His exclusion from the All-Star game is a joke. Mookie Betts has a WAR of 4.2 and is one of the best CF in the AL right now. Eduardo Rodriguez? One of the best rookie pitchers in the AL this year (5-2, 1.3 WAR). And don't forget Brock Holt, the super-utility player who has broken out this year and rightfully earned his first trip to the All-Star game.
<br /><br />
It doesn't take a genius to recognize that one thing all these guys have in common is that they are young. The oldest is Holt at 27. And maybe that is where Boston's focus should be going into the second-half of 2015.
<br /><br />
This isn't to say that the Sox should jettison every last veteran. Any 2016 team needs veteran leadership. Pedroia is going nowhere. Holt could be a good, young leader. But Boston has to start asking some tough questions with clear eyes.
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<br /><br />
Should Clay Buchholz be around for 2016?
<br /><br />
Is there a market for Mike Napoli or do you just release him outright?
<br /><br />
Is David Ortiz your 2016 DH? Or do you make the change and install Ramirez as your DH and get a real glove in left field?
<br /><br />
That last question is the most relevant one of all. Here is the hard truth. Ramirez has an offensive WAR of 1.7 with an .816 OPS. His defensive WAR is -2.2, which is amazing in the worst sense of the word.
<br /><br />
Ramirez is <em>killing</em> this team with his fielding. It makes anything he gives Boston with his bat worthless. Meanwhile, Ortiz has an OPS of .762 and a 0.5 WAR. He is 39 years old and yes we finally have to have this conversation.
<br /><br />
No team wants to say farewell to their iconic players. And Ortiz has been, and is, an icon in Boston. But he is 39 and not hitting like he used to. Unlike A-Rod, he didn't get a year off to heal up.
<br /><br />
Maybe Ortiz shouldn't be the everyday DH anymore. Maybe he plays every other day, or every third day. Because this current setup simply isn't working.
<br /><br />
But I don't know if the front office has the vision or the fortitude to make that call.
<br /><br />
The Buchholz call should be easier. They dodged a huge bullet with this last injury as <a href="http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/13240185/clay-buchholz-boston-red-sox-dl-strained-forearm-muscle" target=blank>Clay's UCL is intact</a>.
<br /><br />
Which means the Sox can offer teams a pitcher who has talent with a decent stat-line and a team-friendly contract through 2017. That should get the Sox more than Andrew Miller did last year. If you recall, the haul in that case was the previously-mentioned Eduardo Rodriguez.
<br /><br />
Clay has talent, but he is too inconsistent and is not the top-guy that this team needs in the rotation. The free-agent market for starting pitchers is going to be thick this off-season with Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto leading that group. And while the Sox are risk-averse to giving big deals to pitchers over 30, the truth is that this rotation needs a reliable veteran presence to anchor it while younger pitchers like E-Rod and Brian Johnson come along.
<br /><br />
Whether Boston management will see it that way...who can say? But one would hope they can look at 2015 and see that their plan simply failed to work.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-74491453727348756272015-06-22T11:19:00.004-04:002015-06-22T11:20:16.589-04:00Thoughts on the Sox and Yanks<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf4Me6A1tx6VTnJNIh7MC_FfceloqFPDB9LF0Wu_9w05EbRF2VW49snDH1sd8ByK6LqRftceUaetH6oYOt-YGnl3Iixw5RTnQP2qvC8l0fX78v90MpGBsFU26FDCFn-meQjhxwxSvuDz4/s1600/pineda1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf4Me6A1tx6VTnJNIh7MC_FfceloqFPDB9LF0Wu_9w05EbRF2VW49snDH1sd8ByK6LqRftceUaetH6oYOt-YGnl3Iixw5RTnQP2qvC8l0fX78v90MpGBsFU26FDCFn-meQjhxwxSvuDz4/s400/pineda1.jpg" /></a></div>
I've decided I have no idea on what to make about Boston's rotation at this point.
<br /><br />
I looked at Porcello in mid-May. He was 4-2 and had thrown four straight quality starts. I thought - and said - that he had turned a corner.
<br /><br />
Well, he sure did. He just went in the wrong direction. He has since lost six straight starts and given up four or more runs in five of them. For the month of June he is 0-4 with a 6.20 ERA. Ugh.
<br /><br />
Wade Miley looked cooked after giving up five earned runs against the Rangers at the end of May. But, aside from his debacle in Baltimore, he has won three of four starts in June. His ERA is a respectable 3.42 for the month of June and he currently has a winning record for the first time this year (7-6).
<br /><br />
The cold, simple, truth is that there is no consistency to this rotation. Trying to guess what a pitcher will do from one start to the next is almost impossible. You'd have as much luck reading tea leaves or chicken bones as you would using statistics to determine what will happen over the next couple of months. Did you know Clay Buchholz hasn't given up more than four earned runs in a game since May 4th and has a 2.81 ERA for the month of June? I didn't, and it may not even matter since he could easily go out and stink it up for the next three or four games.
<br /><br />
Consistency matters and right now Boston doesn't have it on the mound.
<br /><br />
Batting, however, is a place where Boston may actually be finding their footing.
<br /><br />
All year, Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts have produced for Boston despite what talk-radio may tell you. Bogaerts in particular; he has the best WAR for a shortstop in the AL as of this morning. The negativity sent his way on the radio baffles me, to be honest.
<br /><br />
But now Mookie Betts is stepping up as well. His June splits are phenomenal (.375 BA / .412 OBP / 1.068 OPS). His monthly totals have improved each month, which is an encouraging sign as well. His 2.8 WAR is fourth for center fielders in the AL.
<br /><br />
Betts is demonstrating growth at the plate, which is a good sign that his career arc at this point in his development is extremely positive. Many first and second-year players have a lot of trouble hitting in the majors but Betts is working through it.
<br /><br />
Having a legit third producer in the lineup makes Boston's hitting better all-around. Add to it Brock Holt hitting the cover off the ball* and we may see a resurgence in Boston's production.
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That hasn't been a problem in New York, where the Yankees continue to exceed pre-season expectations. And they got to celebrate A-Rod's 3,000th hit as well.
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Rodriguez has had a Hall of Fame level career, something that his 3,000th hit made quite clear. But, like Clemens and Bonds, the specter of his use of PEDs may well keep him from ever entering Cooperstown. Especially since the rumors of his use have followed him since early in his career, unlike Bonds and Clemens.
<br /><br />
It's a tragedy because, like the other two, his talent is so immense and obvious that he would have likely had a HOF career without the PEDs.
<br /><br />
But for now, in 2015, he is producing. He, along with Brett Gardner and Mark Texeira, are the three New York batters with WARs of 2.0 or better. Add in the reanimated corpse of Brian McCann and you have the engine of a lineup that has kept New York in or near first place in the AL East for most of the season.
<br /><br />
Michael Pineda continues to impress as the unarguably best pitcher in New York's rotation. Even though June has been his rockiest month to date (2-1, 4.24 ERA) he always gives New York the chance to win. This is the talent New York traded for back in 2012. And, if you look at Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi since the deal, it looks like New York came out ahead. Even if his WAR (1.6) doesn't match the levels of other 8-3 pitchers like Sonny Grey and Dallas Keuchel he has been impressive in 2015.
<br /><br />
But, as always, the strength of the Yankees is their insanely talented and productive bullpen. Specifically the 1-2 punch of Betances and Miller. Fun fact: there is one reliever in the top 10 AL pitchers by WAR and his name is Dellin Betances. His WAR is 2.2, which is impressive enough for a starter. For a reliever it is insane; Betances has a higher WAR right now than Felix Hernandez.
<br /><br />
Miller is no slouch either, sitting in the top 25 in WAR for AL pitchers. Those two right there are why New York has been able to survive having a rotation with fewer quality starts than Boston and a middling 3.95 ERA. Well, that and the second most productive lineup in the AL.
<br /><br />
But the caveat to all this is one I have mentioned before: things even out. Boston has had some historically bad luck and production. New York has had some phenomenally good luck and production. This is really more about the Yankees and their chances for the post-season. Boston is nine games out on the edge of July, which means they'd have to play at a level they haven't reached all season long to even sniff the post-season.
<br /><br />
New York is firing on all cylinders, but they can't afford to stumble or lose anyone for a long period of time. If Betances goes down with an injury, or Teixeira or Pineda, the Yanks are razor-thin when it comes to depth. Look at the loss of Miller. His last game was June 9. Since then the Yankees have gone 5-6. Two of those losses were one-run defeats (2-1 to Washington on 6/10 and 2-1 to Miami on 6/15).
<br /><br />
Now, what if Teixiera goes down and Garrett Jones starts playing every day? Teixeira hasn't played more than 123 games in a season since 2012. McCann is having his best year since 2011. What if he reverts to form?
<br /><br />
None of this is meant to disparage what New York has done. You have to be impressed with how they have defied the experts and the odds to this point in 2015. But you can do that and recognize that they are doing this with a very, <em>very</em> thin margin for error.
<br /><br />
As we head into July and the halfway point of 2015 it will be interesting to see where both these teams are headed. But if the first-half is any indication, New York may want to get ready for October baseball while Boston breaks out the golf clubs.
<br /><br />
------------------
<br /><br />
*Brock Holt needs to be a starter for the Sox, not a sub for injured players. He has earned it with his play over the past month.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-44828171176366315922015-06-12T08:24:00.000-04:002015-06-12T08:24:04.459-04:00I Was Wrong...NOW the Red Sox Have Hit Their Low Point<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH70OotuTIHNmSeqo4PG9lyCvtGfznOepegOffYw4FhCzMACwia2z2npC1tkw_7IEt2hALm4uoc0cYBoqV2t8zE4gbz2HS-HWl5bc_3xCRU78VsAqjqmZhGqKu9-85NIfwEAmD5xJowzs/s1600/farrell-miley.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH70OotuTIHNmSeqo4PG9lyCvtGfznOepegOffYw4FhCzMACwia2z2npC1tkw_7IEt2hALm4uoc0cYBoqV2t8zE4gbz2HS-HWl5bc_3xCRU78VsAqjqmZhGqKu9-85NIfwEAmD5xJowzs/s400/farrell-miley.png" /></a></div>
<br /><br />
At least until tonight. Because if the Sox have excelled at anything this year, it's finding new and exciting ways to disappoint their fans.
<Br /><br />
I have been saying since late April that Boston had a limited window to get their act together. That they needed to get firing on all cylinders because relying on the mediocrity of the rest of the AL East had a limited shelf life. Well, that window closed last night.
<Br /><br />
After losing 6-5 to Baltimore and getting swept by the Orioles, the Red Sox are seven games out of first. They have a run differential of -48 and show zero signs of getting their act together.
<Br /><br />
When they pitch well, they can't score runs. And when they score runs, they can't pitch well. The result this time is losing three to Baltimore and undoing all the good work they did before leaving on this road trip.
<Br /><br />
And this time, we had the added benefit of <a href="http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/13062552/wade-miley-john-farrell-boston-red-sox-downplay-dugout-argument">Wade Miley and John Farrell jaw-jacking at one another</a> after Miley was pulled in the fifth.
<Br /><br />
I don't know which was more surprising; Miley having the audacity to argue about anything after stinking on the mound or Farrell seeming to just sit back and take it for the most part. This wasn't a situation where Miley had pitched great and didn't want the ball taken out of his hands. Miley looked horrible out there. Farrell was doing him a favor.
<Br /><br />
My hope is that post-game Farrell ripped the unholy Hell out of Miley for that outburst. Because if he didn't, then Farrell is going to lose whatever control he has in the locker room. When a team is losing, the last thing it needs is a passive manager that doesn't hold players accountable for their bullshit.
<Br /><br />
Because right now, this season has 2012 written ALL over it. Except with even more un-movable contracts.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-31453647446376266212015-06-10T10:13:00.001-04:002015-06-10T10:13:39.168-04:00Time to Fire Chili Davis<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwrVNWnTRYklxhl2JB2KGi4Iu2mKPrViUkqXpRH6fvlypC3zcM6jp6fbh1yOkSsOTVoInLQKYro5omvRFtmIpXUvVN-eoRn56w2veX4i0Dzl7hxhCGHAgT503QwN3MxL7whmAy89Y1UxU/s1600/davis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwrVNWnTRYklxhl2JB2KGi4Iu2mKPrViUkqXpRH6fvlypC3zcM6jp6fbh1yOkSsOTVoInLQKYro5omvRFtmIpXUvVN-eoRn56w2veX4i0Dzl7hxhCGHAgT503QwN3MxL7whmAy89Y1UxU/s400/davis.jpg" /></a></div>In the depths of Boston's pitching woes, back in early May, pitching coach Juan Nieves was fired. The reason was simple; Boston's pitching sucked at that point. Over the past month you could argue that Boston's pitching has improved overall, even if there are occasional hiccups in the starting rotation and bullpen. Wade Miley is a much better pitcher now than he was before Nieves was fired. Clay Buchholz is a much better pitcher now than he was before Nieves was fired. Even Joe Kelly is pitching better. Throw in the scintillating start to Eduardo Rodriguez's career (3 GS / 2-0 / 0.44 ERA / 0.73 WHIP) and you can see Boston's pitching turning a corner of sorts.
<br /><br />
So why, in the name of all that is holy, does Boston management continue to tolerate the abysmal hitting and run production of this team?? Here's a fun fact: in 25% of Boston's games this year, they have scored one run or less. Which is why they are near the AL basement in runs this year (currently 12th). If you aren't scoring runs, you aren't winning games. As evidenced by Boston wasting a sterling performance from Eduardo Rodriguez last night in a 1-0 loss in Baltimore.
<br /><br />
What makes it even worse is that hitting was supposed to be the strength of the 2015 Red Sox. Ben Cherington was right in identifying offense as being hard to find. What you can question is whether the 200M or so Boston spent on solving this problem was spent well. I was all on board with Sandoval, and I still am. I think he can play better and will do so. Ramirez...I was always shaky on him. His attitude was the red flag and I think his play in left (or lack thereof) justifies that concern. If he can't play left, and you aren't going to sit Ortiz, then what do you do with him?
<br /><br />
But that is secondary to the fact that Boston's hitting has just sucked. There are only two starters right now who I think are pulling their weight at the plate. That would be Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts. Pedroia is third in WAR at his position in the AL (2.2 WAR) while Bogaerts (1.7 WAR) trails only one-time Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias at their position. If Brock Holt keeps playing he'll qualify with enough at-bats and you can throw him in there as well. Frankly, they should be making room for him to be a regular now based on his performance to-date.
<br /><br />
But besides those three guys? It's been damned disappointing. Rookies like Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo aren't hitting at all. Pablo Sandoval has a .651 OPS. Mike Napoli and David Ortiz both have batting averages approaching the Mendoza Line. And any hitting Hanley Ramirez has given Boston is more than cancelled out by his horrible fielding.
<br /><br />
So why is Chili Davis getting a pass? I have nothing against the guy. But if Boston brass is going to fire Nieves a month into the season, Davis should be getting the boot based on Boston's offensive performance to date. Because make no mistakes, <em>this</em> is why Boston's season is going down the drain. If you cannot score more than one run in 1/4th of your games, you are going to suck.
<br /><br />
If John Henry was thinking straight, he'd be giving Cherington a stern talking-to as well. Because while Ben has been good at identifying problems and weaknesses, his track record in addressing said problems and weaknesses has been hit-and-miss.
<br /><br />
John Farrell shouldn't get off without mention in this debacle either. Yes, he guided Boston to a World Series title in 2013 and that should not be ignored. But since then, Boston's record is 98-123. That's not good in any sense of the word.
<br /><br />
But Cherington isn't going anywhere right now and neither is Farrell. And hitting is the glaring, obvious weakness right now. That falls on Davis' shoulders. And it's time for him to go.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-5652127686686450862015-06-08T10:54:00.001-04:002015-06-08T10:56:10.932-04:00Turning a Corner / Watching Out For Bats<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPJyfARn57gOgnoxkYmEMjuVRLv5VNzksqzgDExz2cr92L8IBbav7-yKJB2y2CNRpWuv9QKPZo6omGaCFFNF0BpxB8z-RyO9XMDvuUxIkxanj-SUXKOWTiEHZARhnTYAQF2Vsyuu8KMqs/s1600/castillo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPJyfARn57gOgnoxkYmEMjuVRLv5VNzksqzgDExz2cr92L8IBbav7-yKJB2y2CNRpWuv9QKPZo6omGaCFFNF0BpxB8z-RyO9XMDvuUxIkxanj-SUXKOWTiEHZARhnTYAQF2Vsyuu8KMqs/s400/castillo.jpg" /></a></div>The standings don't show it. At 27-31, the Red Sox sit 5.5 games out of first. But Boston has won five of their last seven games, including a sweep of the Oakland A's as they wrap up a seven-game homestand. What is most encouraging is that in yesterday's game, the Sox actually rallied to win a game.
<br /><br />
Down 4-0 in the eighth inning is usually where Boston goes down meekly and fans rub their heads in frustration. Yesterday it was where the Sox erupted for seven runs, sending 11 batters to the plate. By game's end, every Boston starter except for Ortiz had at least one hit.
<br /><br />
The comeback covered for Clay Buchholz, who had a bad outing (4.2 innings, four runs on 10 hits). But this is his first non-quality start since May 4. So I think he has earned the benefit of the doubt and we should not freak out quite yet.
<br /><br />
This series definitely washed away the bad taste that the Minnesota series left behind. Despite splitting the series the Sox should have won at least three games. That 8-4 loss in their last game, with three errors and horrendous base running compounded by allowing four runs in the top of the ninth, felt like the nadir of Boston's season. To then come back and sweep Oakland was desperately needed.
<br /><br />
The temptation now is to read too much into this sweep. While yesterday's comeback was thrilling, it was made possible because Boston could do nothing against Oakland starter Kendall Graveman. He held Boston to one run on six hits over seven innings. And he is not an ace; he is 3-2 with a WHIP of 1.59 and a 4.83 ERA. A lineup with Boston's talent should be tagging a pitcher like that. Instead, they were mostly useless until Castillo hammered a 380 foot homer off him to start Boston's eighth-inning run. The hope is that this offensive explosion kick-starts a more regular offensive output. The reality is that that may happen...or it may not.
<br /><br />
The last time Boston posted seven or more runs was May 23. Before that it was April 24. By contrast, the Yankees have scored 7+ runs four times in their last 13 games. Toronto has scored 7+ runs four times in their last five games. The teams ahead of Boston in the AL East are operating on a different offensive level right now. Until the Sox can replicate yesterday's scoring on a regular basis, they will struggle to make up that 5.5 game gap their are facing.
<br /><br />
I feel like something needs to be said about the bat incident on Friday night. By all accounts, it was a gruesome injury (I refuse to watch the video). And the blame is focusing in two directions; the maple bat Brett Lawrie was using and the netting behind home plate.
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I have sat behind home plate a couple of times at Fenway, courtesy of a generous brother-in-law who treats me way better than I deserve. The netting stops right where it lines up with the on-deck circle. I have had a couple of fouls balls come back at me off the bat, thankfully where the netting is.
<br /><br />
Things happen <em>fast</em> behind home plate. It's not like being down the lines, where you have a second or two to process what is happening. The ball would come back off the bat and hit the netting in a split-second. Now imagine there is no net and it's razor-sharp shards of maple.
<br /><br />
The players blame the lack of netting. Popular opinion is focusing more on the bat. Truth is, both sides are right.
<br /><br />
Maple bats came into favor thanks to Barry Bonds PEDing his way to the home run title. It's a strong wood like ash. But it's not as flexible and more prone to shattering. And when a maple bats shatters, it sends some big, jagged fragments flying everywhere. The Cubs' Tyler Colvin <A href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v12243779/chcfla-colvin-hit-by-splintered-bat-exits-game" target=blank>got pole-axed by a broken maple bat in 2010</a> that collapsed his lung. It was only a matter of time before a fan suffered a similar fate.
<br /><br />
But the netting behind home plate could easily be extended further. A logical extension would be to run it from home plate out both ways to the beginning of the dugouts on either side. And while that may remove some thrilling foul-ball catching attempts, it will make things a lot safer. The netting absolutely <em>does not</em> ruin the viewing of the game. If it did, no one would sit behind home plate.
<br /><br />
The NHL already had to face this issue with the tragic death of Brittanie Cecil in 2002. The resulting mandatory netting at both ends of the rink have helped to prevent a similar tragedy and have not impacted fan enjoyment of the game.
<br /><br />
Major League Baseball is fortunate that this recent event did not result in a fatality as well; it very easily could have. Expanding the netting is a no-brainer in my opinion. As is either altering the way maple bats are made or getting rid of them. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-88477829004658397472015-06-02T15:27:00.000-04:002015-06-02T15:27:04.464-04:00Freefall<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4RzvSmq2Y2tpNCp1WOcIFaxnQFIv4WbwjMY8CcHd8z__g_0C8hLZ5rjUgXaKF6g3Ukwky-pH4T9jAb3FjWPBX2gp-EHkvVyhjXvmgFybcHepnQlFzaoSH1KIYDYFiWUOUzUDhRycTFmU/s1600/hanleywall.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4RzvSmq2Y2tpNCp1WOcIFaxnQFIv4WbwjMY8CcHd8z__g_0C8hLZ5rjUgXaKF6g3Ukwky-pH4T9jAb3FjWPBX2gp-EHkvVyhjXvmgFybcHepnQlFzaoSH1KIYDYFiWUOUzUDhRycTFmU/s400/hanleywall.jpg" /></a></div>
<br /><br />
So the Sox had their game rained out against the Twins yesterday. Which was the second-best result they saw all week.
<br /><br />
I have advocated all year against blind panic. Against knee-jerk moves. Against declaring the whole season a bust based on a small amount of time.
<br /><br />
But now we are in June. And Boston is in last place. They are 22-29 with a run differential of -48 (almost a run per game). Yes, they are only 4.5 games out of first. But that has everything to do with the relative mediocrity of the AL East and nothing to do with Boston's quality of play.
<br /><br />
In a mostly-disappointing season, the only constant was Boston's defense. It was always in the top third league-wide. Today it is firmly in the middle of the pack. That downturn has added to the misery in Boston. Now, in all facets, Boston as a team is at best middling. At worst (as with their pitching) they are near the bottom. As of today, this team is on pace to be worse than the 2012 Red Sox. That team was the worst Boston put on the field since the mid-1960s.
<br /><br />
The defense that was their strength? As of today there are exactly two Boston starters who rank in the top half for their position defensively (among qualified starters). That would be Mookie Betts in center and Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. Everyone else is dragging near the bottom.
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And yes, that includes Dustin Pedroia. Boston's perennial Gold Glove second baseman is have a very bad year so far in the field. His fielding percentage is well below the league average. While that is due in part to his ability to get to more baseballs (his Range Factor is 4th at his position in the AL) he isn't making the plays he used to make on those balls. His five errors are the worst for a second baseman in the AL. He had two in all of 2014, five total in both 2012 and 2013. While his bat is still producing, his glove has now tailed off a little.
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That is still leagues above Hanley Ramirez, who hasn't seen a fly ball yet that he won't pull up on. His Range Factor is 1.54, dead last for qualifying left fielders in the AL. That means he isn't reaching balls hit his way. His fielding percentage of .968 is also dead last. Which means that when he reaches a ball, he still isn't all that good on defense. His defensive WAR? -1.4, which is really, really bad. And negates anything positive he has done at the plate.
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Pablo Sandoval? Only Manny Machado and Chase Headley are worse at third by fielding percentage. Sandoval's Range Factor of 2.30 is second-worst in the AL at third, beating out only David Freese on the Angels. Sandoval has never been a Gold Glove at third, but 2015 is rivaling some of his worst numbers ever.
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Meanwhile the bats have gone cold and the pitching is failing again. Both Porcello and Miley looked on the verge of becoming solid pitchers...and then dealt up some of their worst work of 2015. Meanwhile, Buchholz has pitched well in his last two outings but was saddled with a loss each time thanks to Boston's ice-cold bats.
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The only bright moment in the past week-plus was Eduardo Rodriguez's debut. After that comes yesterday's rainout. The rest has been an un-remitting parade of suck.
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And one has to question whether the front-office knows how to turn it around. A lot of fingers are being pointed at Cherington and Company over the airwaves. And not entirely without merit. While I firmly believe that trading John Lackey was the right move in 2014, it is fair and proper to say that St. Louis fleeced Boston in that deal. That deal is Exhibit A in questioning whether the front office has the skill needed to evaluate the talent on other teams. Allen Craig and Joe Kelly have been useless. Exhibit B will be the Cespedes-for-Porcello deal unless Porcello starts getting better on a consistent basis.
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Free agents are a question as well. Sandoval and Ramirez were signed primarily for their bats. But Cherington apparently thought their gloves didn't matter. Well, they do. To the point that Ramirez's lack of effort in left is costing Boston more wins than his bat is providing for the team.
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So can the front office actually turn this team around? Or are they lacking in talent evaluation to the point that their trades and acquisitions would make this bad situation even worse? Either choice is a lousy one for Boston fans.
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It is hard to believe that Boston has reverted in many ways to that 2012 team that imploded. But it's June now and I am hard-pressed to see how this turns around. Unless the players buckle down and actually play to their potential. Which, if we go by what has happened thus far, doesn't look likely.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-29217816160970504222015-05-29T09:19:00.000-04:002015-05-29T09:19:02.345-04:00Eduardo Rodriguez Makes His Debut <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBUcz5QsV1ZFdwcKy-pbHJsHPJMV9cG3jcfZ0Xt5ldSPhlcOob447T4dqwxXT6-r3A32e6FtEONxErju3bkTbJp8oaqcsfkL06QcHwRwE3safCHkjU_ytqSIMZ-LOHova244oJdkuAB9g/s1600/eduardo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBUcz5QsV1ZFdwcKy-pbHJsHPJMV9cG3jcfZ0Xt5ldSPhlcOob447T4dqwxXT6-r3A32e6FtEONxErju3bkTbJp8oaqcsfkL06QcHwRwE3safCHkjU_ytqSIMZ-LOHova244oJdkuAB9g/s400/eduardo.jpg" /></a></div>During last year's debacle, the Sox traded Andrew Miller to Baltimore for an (at the time) unknown left-handed pitcher in Double A named Eduardo Rodriguez. The book on him was that he was very talented but his control wasn't the best. At the time he hadn't been able to get his K/BB ratio above 3.00 and his WHIP hovered between 1.207 and 1.440.
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Since that trade Baltimore lost Miller to free agency and the Yankees (where he has excelled). And Boston debuted their newest pitcher last night. Rodriguez gave Boston one of the best first outings in team history, a 7.2 inning shutout with three hits, seven strikeouts and just two walks. Boston beat Texas 5-1 and all of a sudden people are a lot more positive in Red Sox country.
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The temptation after a debut like this is to believe that everything has changed and this new savior will lead the team to the promised land. Which is a pretty crazy way to look at this, but it does happen. What is fair to think is that Rodriguez may well be better than Joe Kelly and should take over his slot in the rotation. Because I am pretty sure that if the Sox brass send Rodriguez back down to Pawtucket, Boston fans will collectively lose their minds.
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And I have to admit I was wrong about whom the Sox would call up. I really thought Brian Johnson would get the nod since he was older and arguably pitching better than Rodriguez down in Pawtucket. But if this is what happens when I am wrong, then I hope to be wrong more often.
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It also helped that Boston provided Rodriguez with actual run support. Three of the five runs came with two outs, a situation in which Boston has struggled all year long. Hanley Ramirez launched his 11th homer of 2015 as the DH, with Ortiz taking a breather. Really, the only negative from the plate were the five double-plays Boston hit into.
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We also have to mention the Ortiz "situation". I use the quotes because we don't really know what the heck is going on there beyond that <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/05/28/red-sox-sit-david-ortiz-few-games/yArMz5HB3Pm1vWn2yZBKhN/story.html" target=blank>he has been in a brutal slump</a>. It could be an injury. It could be a flaw in his swing. It could be that, at age 39, Father Time has finally caught up with Big Papi. What we do know is that Ortiz has a .679 OPS, a batting average approaching the Mendoza Line and a negative WAR. And in a season where the Sox are still in the race only because the rest of the AL East has also been exceedingly mediocre, you can't let anyone hitting like that stay in the lineup indefinitely. Hopefully it is nothing more than a flaw in his swing that he can identify and fix.
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Tonight the knuckleballer Steven Wright takes the mound. It is supposed to be humid down in Arlington tonight with a possible passing thunderstorm. That should mean a bit of wind as well. Both those factors should help Wright's knuckleball move around and hopefully give Boston back-to-back wins.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-185498307118523172015-05-26T12:08:00.002-04:002015-05-26T12:08:44.639-04:00Red Sox Rollercoaster<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgucr7v4uJe5Tw7sJ0jIsxllP-A15QjcJ8teiSuTSFT3skPQ3iU2rsoqHrtGfftHCju6cwBYZLoazW-IBR2UQ7h0uvds7avtCQkfjscD0k8qUYxiDYFBD0RVoVrLj20mp7VFGf9QoUw5QM/s1600/kelly.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgucr7v4uJe5Tw7sJ0jIsxllP-A15QjcJ8teiSuTSFT3skPQ3iU2rsoqHrtGfftHCju6cwBYZLoazW-IBR2UQ7h0uvds7avtCQkfjscD0k8qUYxiDYFBD0RVoVrLj20mp7VFGf9QoUw5QM/s400/kelly.jpg" /></a></div>
The one thing Boston has been consistent about in 2015 is being consistently good on defense. The Red Sox have hovered between 8th and 10th for team fielding across all 30 teams all season. That, and a bizarrely weak AL East, are the two reasons that Boston sits in fourth place and yet just 2.5 games out of first.
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Other than that, it's been impossible to guess which Boston team will show up. Is it the team that pounded the Angels and took two of three games? Is it the team that pitched well but couldn't score any runs, like the one that dropped two games to the Rangers? Or is it the team that couldn't do anything well, like the one that lost to the Twins 7-2 on Memorial Day?
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What is most disappointing about yesterday's defeat is not that it derailed what looked like a bit of momentum for Boston, but that it sent Joe Kelly back to Square One. In his last two starts he had gone six innings or longer and surrendered two runs or less in each. It looked like he had found his groove.
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Then yesterday he gives up seven runs in less than two innings and the game is over before it begins. It was his worst outing of the season. And it is becoming painfully clear that this is closer to the Joe Kelly we can expect than that guy from the previous two starts.
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The question isn't "How do you fix Joe Kelly?" It is "How much longer do you wait on sending him to Pawtucket?" Brian Johnson and Eduardo Rodriguez are waiting in the wings. Rodriguez is the better player, but at 22 you may not want to rush him in yet. Johnson is older (24) and even if his upside isn't as high, he is probably more prepared for Boston than his younger battery mate.
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I would personally pull the trigger on this now, rather than ride out one more Kelly start. Especially since other pitchers in Boston seem to have figured things out. Like Wade Miley.
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In his last three starts Miley has given up a total of three earned runs. He has gone six innings or more in all three starts. He has allowed no home runs. His ERA is now 4.47, the lowest it has been since April 10. He has figured something out, and now we are seeing the Miley that Cherington expected when he traded for him last year. Hopefully he can continue on this path and provide the rotation with some added stability.
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Meanwhile, Boston's bats continue to have trouble generating consistent power. As of right now, no Boston starter has an OPS of .800 or higher. Only one starter has an OBP of .350 or higher (Pedroia at .360). In Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC27) Pedroia has the highest number for Boston at 5.39, which is good for 32nd in the AL East. He is the only Boston player in the AL Top 40. Boston is one of only two AL teams to have a single representative in that list. Seattle is the other, but their guy is Nelson Cruz, who leads the list at 10.30 and basically counts as two players.
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Until Boston's hitters get out of their funk, it really doesn't matter how well Miley pitches or how lousy Kelly pitches. If you aren't putting runs on the board, you are going to lose a lot more than you win.
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But Kelly sure isn't helping.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-31345566205504886332015-05-20T09:03:00.002-04:002015-05-20T09:03:10.511-04:00Slowly Climbing...Slowly FallingI have been saying for most of this season that the Red Sox and Yankees are both performing at unexpected levels, just at opposite ends of the spectrum. I have also said that the only silver lining for Boston was that they had a lot of room to improve. And that the danger for the Yankees is that they were already hitting close to their ceiling.
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As of today, the Yankees have lost seven of their last 10 games while Boston have won six of their last 10. The Yankees are tied for first with Tampa Bay while Boston sits just 2.5 games back in third. The Yankees <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12915966/jacoby-ellsbury-new-york-yankees-leaves-game-injured-knee">just lost Jacoby Ellsbury to a knee injury</a>. Boston changed their pitching coach and Wade Miley looks competent on the mound.
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The latest turn of bad luck for the Yankees - besides the Ellsbury injury - was Andrew Miller giving up the game-winning homer to Washington in their 8-6 defeat of New York last night. One of the keys to New York's unexpected good start was the combo of Betances and Miller holding opposing teams to doing little more than getting outs. That has since been undone to some degree. Overall, they are still one of the best 1-2 punches late in a close game. But tiny cracks in their armor are starting to show. That will make it harder for New
to regain the form they had early in the season.
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Injuries will also make that job harder. Ellsbury getting injured kind of goes with the territory; it's one of the reasons Boston fans weren't that upset when he jumped ship. And he has definitely been one of the better bats in New York's lineup. He currently leads New York in Offensive WAR at 1.6 and that means New York is going to miss him. Chris Young may be an adequate replacement but he'll be a step back. <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/05/20/with-jacoby-ellsbury-on-the-dl-slade-heathcott-gets-the-call/">Slade Heathcott is an interesting call-up</a>. A 2009 first-round pick whose career appeared to be derailed by alcohol, Heathcott has turned things around and now could be starting in New York's outfield. Whether his numbers in AAA will carry over into the MLB is, as always, the big question. At the least, things will be interesting in New York.
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The Red Sox fired pitching coach Juan Nieves on May 7. They hired pitching coach Carl Willis two days later and he officially joined the team on May 10. From that day on the Sox have gone 6-3. Wade Miley has cut his ERA by almost two whole runs. Joe Kelly's outing on May 14th was his best since April 11. And Clay Buchholz threw a masterpiece against the Mariners five days ago that was wasted thanks to Boston's bats going cold.
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Now, correlation doesn't mean causation. And perhaps it is too simplistic to tie Boston's improved pitching to the hiring of a new pitching coach just 10 days ago. But sometimes a single change can make a big improvement. No one can deny that Wade Miley pitched last night like you'd want a Number 3 to pitch. Two earned runs over seven innings. Seven strikeouts and one walk. Two straight quality starts. That is <em>not</em> the Wade Miley we saw earlier in the year.
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Of course, now Boston's hitting has dropped off. No regular starter has a batting average over .280. Only one starter (Hanley Ramirez) has an OPS over .800. The Red Sox now sit 24th in the majors for team OPS and 17th in on-base percentage. Run production? They have fallen to 19th.
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This was a common frustration last year; the inability of the Red Sox to get all facets of their team performing well at the same time. What is helping them stay in games right now besides the improved pitching is their defense. It ranks sixth in the majors and doesn't look to drop off any time soon. The hope is that they can maintain that quality in the field while their bats start to wake up.
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This could all change in a moment's notice. Boston's pitching could go south again and Heathcott could be the best Yankee call-up since Gehrig pushed out Pipp. But right now the Yankees and Red Sox are slowly switching positions.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-24804366885287878052015-05-15T09:43:00.000-04:002015-05-15T09:43:29.566-04:00A Lot Can Change in Three Days<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLY5gUl3kc21EZDluv9Y92ZtkpHwid3yTgVbA7aPK5fN9NBuMc4747uKpS5E8-XHDBr7DbNIQiUa5BLpCOwCe0zYAtARFV0kM0JXblf-WmTaGP05ldHbbs3G44txfYFxaEvZEk-58CVq4/s1600/redsox.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLY5gUl3kc21EZDluv9Y92ZtkpHwid3yTgVbA7aPK5fN9NBuMc4747uKpS5E8-XHDBr7DbNIQiUa5BLpCOwCe0zYAtARFV0kM0JXblf-WmTaGP05ldHbbs3G44txfYFxaEvZEk-58CVq4/s400/redsox.jpg" /></a></div><br />
In the last three days, the Sox have won two of three while the Yankees dropped three straight to the Rays. Boston's first win was thanks to a gritty, surprisingly decent performance from Wade Miley. New York's first loss was due in part to a surprisingly poor appearance from Dellin Betances, who allowed two inherited runners to score.
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Yes, a lot can change in three days.
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Boston won again last night with another gritty outing, this time courtesy of Joe Kelly. And while it would be a stretch to say he pitched well (more walks than strikeouts is never a good thing) it would be fair to say he pitched <em>well enough</em>. One run on five hits over 6.1 innings gave Kelly just his second quality start of the 2015 season. That was enough to keep the Sox in the game. Matt Barnes worked around two hits in the eighth and, thanks to some quality at-bats from the Sox in the top of the ninth, got his second win of the young season. Uehara worked a perfect ninth for his eighth save of the season.
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Wade Miley's win on Wednesday afternoon was, in many ways, even more surprising. It was his first win since April 21. And although he had the same walk/strikeout problem that Kelly had yesterday, he was able to keep the A's off-balance while Boston's hitters were able to scratch Sonny Grey <em>just enough</em> for the 2-0 win.
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In watching that game, I can see where Miley can be an effective pitcher. Miley works <em>fast</em>, to the point that the cameramen sometimes seemed to hurriedly cut back to the game. When Miley is pitching poorly that speed can be a detriment, because it reinforces bad habits. But if he is pitching well, then it keeps the batters from getting settled. They have no time to guess at what Miley may be throwing.
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More than once the Oakland batters got their bats on a pitch and hit it well...but to fielders directly or near enough for the fielder to make the play. And that, in part, comes from being hurried a bit and not settling in properly. Miley is only 2-4, but he has gone 6 innings or more in his last three outings. That is something Boston must get from Miley going forward.
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Meanwhile, the shine has come off of the Yankees' start somewhat. Losing three in a row to the Rays is hardly what New York was looking to accomplish.
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The first loss by a score of 4-2 was the most painful because it showed that Dellin Betances is, in fact, human.
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Entering the eighth inning of a 2-2 game, Betances inherited runners on third and first. The first batter hit a sac fly to get the runner on third across. So now it is 3-2 Rays. Then the runner at first steals second. The batter is then intentionally walked. At which point Betances uncorks two wild pitches in the next at-bat, which gets the Rays' fourth run across the plate. And at that point, the game is pretty much over.
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Girardi chalked it up to Betances being too tired. But that isn't really true in my eyes. Betances has been working a back-to-back/day-off schedule since late April. In fact, Betances got another day of rest before this appearance he normally wouldn't have had. Betances just had a bad outing.
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That's normal...but his relative excellence to that point is something the Yankees have been relying on to win games.
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The other two losses were more a function of the lack of depth that the Yankees have in their rotation. Adam Warren is not your ideal starter And while Chase Whitley can have good games (his outing in a 3-1 loss to Toronto in early May was impressive), it doesn't matter because he hurt his elbow in the second inning and had to leave the game. And the likely replacement for Whitley is Chris Capuano. The Red Sox jettisoned him last year because he wasn't good enough for them in one of their worst seasons in recent memory. So you do the math about how this is likely to go for New York.
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But Yankee fans shouldn't be too nervous yet, nor should Boston fans start relaxing. Three games is a very, very small sample size.
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But within that sample, you can see a way forward for the Sox. And backwards for the Yankees.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-75483506818768580122015-05-12T10:05:00.000-04:002015-05-12T10:05:08.068-04:00Sox Start to Turn Around, Yanks Continue to Win<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFugKXMFxBZLYSnBhUSOZJtqHh5DhDfHztMNzr1U_welSn39G4vQE4G3Ng_nIGL8xEi5fuplMBKwFyN3Au413QYXaJpE6HiieMVPbqd98tkiXZWXCuks07ss5ZniJXPMyOSuauFG2qfX8/s1600/mattbarnes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFugKXMFxBZLYSnBhUSOZJtqHh5DhDfHztMNzr1U_welSn39G4vQE4G3Ng_nIGL8xEi5fuplMBKwFyN3Au413QYXaJpE6HiieMVPbqd98tkiXZWXCuks07ss5ZniJXPMyOSuauFG2qfX8/s400/mattbarnes.jpg" /></a></div>
Boston beat Oakland last night 5-4 in eleven innings to register their first back-to-back wins since April 20-21. It definitely wasn't easy. Once again, the Boston starter (Porcello this time) failed to make it at least six innings. The bullpen was heavily leaned upon. But this time, the Sox had a fresh arm in Matt Barnes.
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Barnes made a handful of appearances last year in September call-ups and this was just his third appearance in 2015. But he has impressed, with just one earned run in 5.1 innings of work. Last night, his two scoreless innings of relief gave Boston the space they needed to manufacture that fifth run and get the win.
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As a Boston fan, the Barnes outing is encouraging as he is the first of the highly touted young arms in the system to make an appearance in 2015. I also think he isn't going back; as of right now he is one of the most effective relief pitchers Boston has had in 2015.
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Pablo Sandoval continues to prove that his signing was a good move. He only got one hit last night but it was a solo homer that gave Boston their 5-4 lead. For the year he has an .820 OPS, trailing only Hanley Ramirez on the Boston roster.
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Porcello had a tough outing; his five innings of work marked his shortest appearance in almost a month. The notable difference, however, is that in that April game he gave up eight runs on 12 hits. Last night he only gave up three runs on nine hits. Not great, but even while Porcello struggled on the mound he left Boston in a position where they could still win the game. That's an important difference.
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Over these past two games, the Sox seem to be scrapping more, fighting to win. That's a good quality and hopefully these two wins will keep that attitude going.
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Then you have the Yankees. As a Boston fan, I want them to go 0-162 every year. But as a <em>baseball</em> fan, I am fascinated to see how long they can keep this going.
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We are over a month into the 2015 season and the dynamic duo of Betances and Miller have yet to allow a run. They both have WHIPs under 0.90, which is crazy. I believe that Miller is projected to have about 100 saves this year as of today*.
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Teixeira and A-Rod are continuing to crush the ball and Ellsbury is reminding everyone that he can play well when he isn't hurt. Sabathia even got his first win in a year last night! They are 7-3 in their last 10 games and, defying most pre-season predictions, continue to win.
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The big question for the Yankees - and I have stated this before - is can they keep this up? They are performing at a very high level right now. They can't get much better except on defense. As well as they are playing right now, one serious injury puts all that in jeopardy.
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The Yankees are essentially walking a high-wire, but right now they are doing it like a Cirque du Soleil professional.
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It will be very interesting to see how the rest of May unfolds. The Sox have to prove they can keep winning. The Yankees have to stay healthy and stay at this level of performance. Neither job is an easy one.
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* Miller is actually projected for 64 saves as of today. But if you told me 100 I wouldn't immediately dismiss the notion.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-53196477203336432272015-05-04T08:30:00.001-04:002015-05-04T08:30:57.068-04:00Rough Weekend, Rough Rotation<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRi1IxAURzzpTYl6hhME2-ZR_7X58mNQ9MIRrDt2HF3stLiRcOm9MxRKClTnfIw_T_nBNE7XhNFutBRw2pK9yZFWee8LVuGYP7LddqrmA8n0ax-v9-DIdYWw88IJr1vZVHTIsGyQNgneI/s1600/kelly.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRi1IxAURzzpTYl6hhME2-ZR_7X58mNQ9MIRrDt2HF3stLiRcOm9MxRKClTnfIw_T_nBNE7XhNFutBRw2pK9yZFWee8LVuGYP7LddqrmA8n0ax-v9-DIdYWw88IJr1vZVHTIsGyQNgneI/s400/kelly.jpg" /></a></div>
For the first time since 2006, the Yankees swept the Red Sox in a series. Boston is now 12-13, four games out of first. They have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games.
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As a whole, Boston's pitching staff is 28th out of 30, one of three teams with a collective ERA over five. The starting rotation is dead last, with a collective 5.70 ERA.
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Meanwhile, Boston's defense is solidly in the top third of the league. So is their offense overall. So it is obvious that to turn things around, Boston has to figure out their pitching situation sooner than later.
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The relative weakness of the AL East this year has allowed Boston to survive despite their poor pitching. But if New York's bullpen keeps performing as it has been and the rest of their team maintains their productivity, the window for Boston to turn it around in 2015 will close and close soon.
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The Boston bullpen has not given the Sox nearly enough, though part of that can be explained by their overuse due to the starters not getting deep enough into games. Some of the big bullpen signings people thought would strengthen the pen (Robbie Ross, Alexi Ogando) have been disappointing. If management thought this bullpen was strong enough to cover for an average rotation (as New York has done quite successfully with Betances and Miller leading the way), they miscalculated and in grand fashion.
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But as stated before, Boston's true problems lie in their rotation. Rick Porcello is 2-2 with a 5.34 ERA. In his defense, however, his last two starts have been solid and he almost cut his ERA by almost 1.5 runs in the process. If any pitcher looks to be turning a corner, it's Porcello.
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And a nod must be given to Justin Masterson as well. Over his last three starts he has lowered his ERA by almost three runs. He should have gotten a win on Friday but Boston's offense failed to exploit a run-down CC Sabathia. He needs to be consistent as well going forward, not being dominant but good enough to give the Sox a chance to win in his games. If Porcello and Masterson can continue their performance, then Boston will have something of a foundation to build upon.
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But it will be a shaky foundation thanks to the other three starters. Buchholz's inconsistency has been well-documented here. His last outing against the Blue Jays was atrocious. Wade Miley has gotten past the sixth inning exactly once, though to be fair he did pitch decently against the Yankees on Saturday. And Joe Kelly...for a guy who can hit 100 on the radar gun, he doesn't seem to know how to <em>pitch</em>. His ERA has risen in each of his five starts, from 1.29 to his current 5.72. He has surrendered five earned runs in each of his last three starts. But he has great stuff which makes him all the more frustrating. In my fever dreams I like to pretend that Kelly is like Nolan Ryan; great stuff, mediocre at first but after a few seasons somehow puts it all together.
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All that said, there is also just some bad luck going on here. Boston's starters are not this historically bad over their careers. Sooner or later it evens out. And in a note for Yankee fans, that goes for you as well. Betances and Miller can't keep this up forever and neither can your offense. Regression to the mean, my friends. Math is a cruel mistress.
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There is one other area to note: management. John Farrell has a reputation as a pitching guru. Ben Cherington went out and signed pitchers who have talent but haven't been able to harness it on a regular basis. Was the expectation that these pitchers would just improve this year, or was it that Farrell would somehow unlock their potential? Either way, it hasn't worked so far.
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This is usually where people make suggestions on how the team could do better. But frankly, I don't know what Boston should do. I don't think a Cole Hamels trade is the tonic some suggest, especially when combined with the likely cost in talent. If you are going to surrender young talent, the best move is to look for slightly older talent on a similarly struggling team. Maybe someone like Jose Quintana on the White Sox. Because at least he knows what it is like to pitch in the AL.
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I do know one thing, however; don't listen to sports radio today. I already had to listen to Glenn Ordway on WEEI tell me that Boston's rotation is all 4th and 5th starters. Which is bunk and the kind of hysteria that is all-too-common on the airwaves.
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But Boston does need to find a solution and find it soon. Keep an eye out for Eduardo Rodriguez. He tore it up at Portland last year and is killing it in Pawtucket this year (3-0, 1.82 ERA, 11.00 K/BB ratio, 0.851 WHIP). If Miley continues to crash and burn or Kelly keeps seeing his ERA climb, Rodriguez could be the first high-end minor league starter to get a shot in Boston.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-10072529251041803012015-05-01T08:15:00.000-04:002015-05-01T08:15:14.333-04:00The Top Five Red Sox Players to Wear Number 11Turns out the last one of these I did was about a year ago (<a href="http://soxvsstripes.blogspot.com/2014/05/the-top-five-red-sox-players-to-wear.html">The Top Five Red Sox Players to Wear Number 10</a>). So at this rate I should finish around 2040 and then have to start again. But since the Sox didn't play yesterday I thought it would be fun to trot out another one of these. We may start doing a Yankee one as well.
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The '11' has been worn by 36 players in Red Sox history, from Billy Connolly, Sr. in 1931 through Royce Clayton's "Cup of Coffee and Championship Ring Tour" in 2007 to the current wearer, Clay Buchholz . It doesn't exactly have the pedigree of some of the other numbers, but two of the better third-baseman in franchise history have worn it as well as a legend at the end of his career
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7XUHYZIKcunm2hoTDd1RjCoZvmTUifeZcpJ3M0YMxw5YwLO6yh86J2yRHNfsqT6nUG4cFv5kd_jwLoYB6fzfIPZFt3VKG2PN7HA9JrcLfN2Cen0P2I2Idou4hV4KwyTDQaCQk1I5ezgc/s1600/nomo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7XUHYZIKcunm2hoTDd1RjCoZvmTUifeZcpJ3M0YMxw5YwLO6yh86J2yRHNfsqT6nUG4cFv5kd_jwLoYB6fzfIPZFt3VKG2PN7HA9JrcLfN2Cen0P2I2Idou4hV4KwyTDQaCQk1I5ezgc/s400/nomo.jpg" /></a></div><b>Honorable Mention: Hideo Nomo (2001)</b> - He played only one season in Boston, but it wasn't a bad one by any stretch. He went 13-10, pitched 198 innings and struck out 220 batters. And he threw that no-hitter to start his season. He ended up leading the AL in strikeouts and K/9 IP that year, as well as giving up the fewest walks (96). Yet he didn't make the All-Star team.
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The problem in 2001 was that the staff ace (Pedro) had injury issues and only threw in 18 games. After that you had to depend on 38-year old David Cone and Frank Castillo. The only other pitcher besides Nomo who cracked 150 innings was Tim Wakefield. The Sox ended up at 82-79. Nomo had issues adapting to Boston and that off-season he went back to LA.
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<b>5. Dave Stapelton (1980-86)</b> - Dave split most of his time between first and second base during his career in Boston. He was second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 1980, losing out to Cleveland's Joe Charboneau. That year he also finished in the Top 10 for doubles. After that he was more of a "super-sub", especially in 1986 when he would replace Buckner at first for defensive purposes....
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GOOD GOD, MCNAMARA!! WHY DIDN'T YOU REPLACE BUCKNER IN GAME 6?!!?
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Sorry, but it still sticks in my craw. Anyway, here's a interesting note: the only major league player to have played for a minimum of seven years and have their batting average drop each season is one David Stapelton. So the question is obvious: how does he beat out Nomo? Well, I take service time into account. And Stapes was here a hell of a lot longer. He also had the ROY voting as well. But mostly it is because he signed my program when I was a kid and so I am making an editor's choice.
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<b>4. Clay Buchholz (2010-Current)</b> - Clay had a breakout season in 2010, going 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA and making his first All-Star squad. Clay also finished sixth in the AL Cy Young voting. This was all especially impressive considering how many people were calling for him to be traded prior to the start of 2010. Kind of like...now. He is transcendent talent mixed with frustrating indifference. His 2013 season was poised to be one for the ages. This season is poised to be disappointing as hell.
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<b>3. Bill Mueller (2003-05)</b> - Mueller was only here for three seasons but he exemplified everything we want in our players. He played tough, left it all on the field and cared about the team. His first year in Boston was amazing; he batted .326 to lead the AL, he was Top 10 in OPS and OBP, he was Top 5 in doubles, won the AL Silver Slugger Award for third base and finished 12th in the AL MVP voting. And while he never recaptured that form his last two years, he was a solid cornerman and a vital part of the 2004 World Series winners (he batted an obscene .429 against the Cards.) Just a class act all around and by all accounts one of the great guys in baseball. We were lucky to have him.
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<b>2. Luis Aparicio (1971-73)</b> - I was too young to ever see him play, but my dad still talks about him. Aparicio was already a legend by the time he came to the Sox in 1971. He was also 37 years old. But he would play short for the Sox the next three years and do a damn good job of it, earning two All-Star trips in the process (1971-72). He also finished in the Top 20 for AL MVP in 1972. Not bad for a guy pushing 40.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUHAudLFEA-vPYkGr2LuoyvLDUAXRFhk9fkDw53hXZg0p93l_51zY9dyoDgnHRW3OC2lmg4lPZ8wjRYQq0XxC47uUAgwICNYHrjkvu3wqLl4SImJkcMCUOVyMBbLjtQ_YJWQgIVqa2EGk/s1600/malzone.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUHAudLFEA-vPYkGr2LuoyvLDUAXRFhk9fkDw53hXZg0p93l_51zY9dyoDgnHRW3OC2lmg4lPZ8wjRYQq0XxC47uUAgwICNYHrjkvu3wqLl4SImJkcMCUOVyMBbLjtQ_YJWQgIVqa2EGk/s400/malzone.jpg" /></a></div><b>1. Frank Malzone (1956-65)</b> - My grandfather was a huge fan of Malzone, another Sox lifer (I don't count those 82 games with the Angels in 1966 and neither should you.) He manned the hot corner for the Sox his entire career and was probably the best third baseman Boston ever had. Malzone was a six-time All-Star for the Sox (1957-60, 63-64) and a three-time Gold Glove winner (1957-59). He was second in Rookie of the Year voting in 1957, losing to Tony Kubek of the Yankees even though Malzone had more hits, more home runs and a better OPS. In other words, he got robbed. Malzone also finished seventh in the AL MVP voting in 1957 and in the Top 25 two other times (1958-59).
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Malzone was Top 10 in batting average twice (1957, 63), in hits five times (1957-60, 63), doubles four times (1957-60) and in RBIs four times (1957-59, 62). He was inducted into the Red Sox Hall of Fame in 1995. He still has ties with the team, acting as a consultant. Of course, there was the even-larger tie of his son. John Malzone was in the Sox minor-league system for four years as a catcher.
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The real shame here is that Frank Malzone is somewhat forgotten these days. If you ask an average Sox fan about the best third basemen, you'll likely hear three names: Boggs, Mueller and Lowell. Maybe a Butch Hobson here and there. But how many people will say "Frank Malzone," even though he had a much better glove than Boggs and had a much longer tenure than Mueller? Sometimes the greats just don't get the respect they deserve.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0