tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post9029087523332901859..comments2024-01-15T06:32:44.835-05:00Comments on Sox vs. Stripes: Time To Adjust The Joba PlanUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-19580954205822077182009-08-27T07:46:01.056-04:002009-08-27T07:46:01.056-04:00Jason, I'm shocked you're actually trying ...Jason, I'm shocked you're actually trying to use the pitches per inning argument. I just doesn't fly.<br /><br />For those who don't know, SI writer Tom Verducci did a study a number of years ago and found that when the workload of a pitcher 25 or younger is increased by more than 30 innings from the previous season, the following year he tends to be less effective and more susceptible to injury. It's <i>not</i> an absolute, but the data has shown Verducci's theories to be accurate. <br /><br />And every year, Verducci puts out a list during spring training of young pitchers at risk. This year's candidates were Cole Hamel, Jon Lester, Mike Pelfrey, Chad Billingsley, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Dana Eveland, John Danks, Jair Jurrjens and Jon Niese.<br /><br />http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tom_verducci/04/07/yearafter.effect/index.html<br /><br />But the reason the pitches/inning don't matter is because of pitch counts. All young pitchers now have pitch counts of around 100 per game. The only issue is whether a pitcher uses up those 100 pitches in 5 innings or 7 or 9. That means the number of pitches a pitcher is going to throw is a known and a constant. If a pitcher makes 35 stars, he'll throw around 3,500 pitches. The variable, then, is whether he'll throw 175 innings or 220+. <br /><br />In the case of Joba, he's thrown around 100 pitches in 23 of his 24 starts (one was cut short in the first inning after being hit by a line drive). He's thrown 130-2/3 innings so far, for an average of about 5.4 per start. That means his typical inning is somewhere between 17-20 pitches. He just hasn't had many 10-pitch, stress-free innings.<br /><br />All that leaves the Yankees in a quandry. Last season, Joba had his profession high in innings and it was only 100 pitches. Yes, the 160 innings the Yanks are capping Joba at isn't enough to get through a season, but how much further can they reasonably push him? That's already a jump of 60 innings, so just trotting him out there straight through and into the playoffs is a poor, poor option.<br /><br />Meanwhile, this spacingout of his starts absolutely is messing with his head, resulting in starts that are no better and possibly worse than what Gaudin and Sergio Mitre can offer ... and there's no gurantee that Joba will be able to switch the switch and simply turn it around in the playoffs.<br /><br />The only other option that then makes sense is the one I'm suggesting that moves him to the pen for the rest of this season. It would be the last time that would have to happen because starting next year, Joba should be able to go enough innings to complete the season.<br /><br />I do think the Yankees did have a plan for Joba when the season started, but it got scrapped when Chien-Ming Wang was injured and Phil Hughes solidified the bullpen.<br /><br />Of course, the Yankees will have to go through this again with Hughes next year, when he's moved back into the rotation. ... Yes, Cashman, Girardi and the organization still view Hughes as a starter in the future.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054517091231408114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6454948283116207589.post-39599291960622238532009-08-26T15:52:19.355-04:002009-08-26T15:52:19.355-04:00Hmmm..... I agree that this isn't working, bu...Hmmm..... I agree that this isn't working, but I prefer having 4 solid starters in the playoffs as opposed to 3. Seriously, 150 innings??? That's a joke of a limit. But moving him to the bullpen at the end of the year is not the answer. More than the fragile arms that the Yanks brass is trying to protect, they should be more concerned with messing with a young guy's head, which is the more likely scenario here. <br /><br />An innings limit isn't the best gauge of stress on an arm anyway. It doesn't tell the story - was it a 10 pitch inning or a 40 pitch inning (like last night)? Was it a clean inning or were there guys on base? Throw it all out the window. It's the end of August. He's gotten his spaced out starts. Now let him go and get it! How they didn't plan better for this is beyond me!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03653147122491473484noreply@blogger.com