Nomah Retires

If there are two more frustrating words in sports than "unrealized potential" when talking about a player, they don't immediately come to mind. To see rare ability somehow fall short in achieving its full flower can drive a fan .. .a coach ... a team to exasperation. Even when some of it is out of the player's control.

When Nomar Garciaparra broke in with the Red Sox full-time in 1997, he won the Rookie of the Year award in a walk, finished eighth in the MVP voting and made the All-Star team. He hit .306 with an .875 OPS while cracking 30 homers and ringing up 98 RBI. He was a vacuum cleaner at short, making impossible plays seem simple. With Derek Jeter and Miguel Tejada, Garciaparra helped to redefine the shortstop position in the late 90s.

Through the 2000 season, Nomar just improved each year. The fanbase embraced him, worshiped him and yes, loved him. In 2000 he hit .372, the best single-season average for the Sox since 1957 when Williams hit .388.* He put up a 1.033 OPS and continued to make remarkable plays in the field. He won consecutive batting titles in 1999 and 2000, the first right-handed batter to do so since Joe DiMaggio. He was an icon, a legend in the making. People talked about him getting into the Hall of Fame when he retired and no one thought that talk was premature.

The first dent in the armor came in 2001 when he came to spring training with a serious wrist injury. The season was essentially lost. When he came back in 2002, he could still stroke the ball (24 homers and 120 RBI). But his on-base percentage plummeted relative to 2001 (.434 to .352) and his defense began to slip. His decline continued in 2003, albeit at a much slower pace. But now the talk of being a legend, a Hall of Fame lock, of having his number retired...you really didn't hear that anymore.

And then came the 2003 off-season, when Theo Epstein looked into trading for A-Rod and moving Nomar to the White Sox. The details of that aren't for this post, except to say that Nomar was less than pleased with that decision. And his disenchantment became abundantly apparent during the first half of the 2004 season. What many saw as the point where Nomar's time in Boston ran out was the three-game set in New York at the end of June. In the last game, Derek Jeter dove into the stands in the top of the 12th inning to make an amazing catch and propel the Yanks to a three-game sweep. Meanwhile, Nomar sat on the Boston bench, asking out of the game to nurse a tendon injury.

We know what happened from there. Nomar was part of a massive trade that brought Boston it's first title in forever. Nomar went to the Cubs, played decently there in his limited playing time as injuries continued to plague him. In 2006 he signed a three-year deal with the Dodgers and was good his first two years, averaging roughly 120 games per season and making the All-Star game in 2006. But then injuries hounded him again in 2008. In 2009 he signed a one-year deal with the A's. And now today, Nomar signs a one-day contract with the Sox as he announces his retirement.

He retires as one of the best shortstops in Boston's history, but also as a player who should have been...more. Granted, injuries played a major role in limiting Nomar. But he also got a little tired of Boston in his last couple of seasons and I think that also impacted his playing. I don't think he'd ever admit it, but the trade action in 2003 affected him mentally and that affected his playing through the rest of his career. In the end, he was a good player that could have been a great player, someone with Hall of Fame talent that got derailed on that ride to Cooperstown.

But he is still, still, one of the most beloved players to ever wear a Boston uniform. And he always will be. I consider myself lucky to have seen Nomar play numerous times at Fenway Park. And he is still a huge part of Boston's history. He is fourth in team history with a .323 career average, fifth in slugging (.553), sixth in OPS (.923) and ninth in doubles (279).

Thanks for the memories, Nomar. And good luck to you.

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* It's still the best single-season average since 1957. No one has come close to it.

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Is J.D. Drew Worth All That Money?

That was the big question in the Sunday Boston Globe. Amalie Benjamin put forward the question about whether or not J.D. Drew was as good (or as bad) as fans of the Sox make him out to be.

In comparing him to other outfielders signed at the same time, Amalie says:

According to the value estimations on fangraphs.com, in the three years since those deals were signed, Soriano has earned $33.4 million (8.0 wins above replacement player), while being paid $41 million. Lee has earned $40 million (9.2 WAR), while being paid $43 million. Matthews has earned -$5.2 million (-1.1 WAR), while being paid $26.2 million. Pierre has earned $15.4 million (3.6 WAR), while being paid $25.5 million.

And Drew? Even with a rough 2007 in which he "earned" just $5.6 million (1.4 WAR), Drew has earned $45.4 million (10.3 WAR) in Boston, while being paid $42 million. So, in the warped world of baseball finances, the argument could be made that Drew is underpaid. Or, perhaps, that he is compensated equally to his value.

Now, my argument is not with what Amalie has said here. It's factually accurate; this is what fangraphs.com says. Just as it is also true that Drew has one of the best OBP and OPS number sets for outfielders over the past three years.

My argument about Drew has always been that he is not worth the money he has been paid because he is not on the field enough. I think that it is hard to justify a $14M per year deal when you struggle to even play 130 games a year. Regardless of whether or not people like Soriano or Juan Pierre got ridiculous deals relative to their output, that doesn't justify Drew's deal.

Let me put it this way; in three seasons of 100+ games player, Drew has earned $45.4M and is 10.3 WAR while getting $42M. Those are the fangraphs.com numbers. Here are three more seasons of 100+ games played:

2002: WAR - 2.9 | $$ - 7.5 | Salary - $2.7

2003: WAR - 4.9 | $$ - 13.8 | Salary - $4.0

2005: WAR - 3.5 | $$ - 12.0 | Salary - $7.5

Those are Trot Nixon's numbers (in 2004 he only played 40 games due to injury) over a three-year span where he played 144, 129 and 118 games, or an average of 130 games per season. Drew has averaged roughly 128 games per season, so we are dealing with an equal amount of games played more or less. As stated, over that span Drew has accounted for 10.3 WAR while earning $45.4M and making $42M, putting him $3.4M to the good.

Over a similar three-year span, Nixon accounted for 11.3 WAR and earned $33.3M while making $14.2M. This is the same Nixon that Drew's supporters rag on as being far inferior to Drew. And yet he was +1 WAR over Drew in a similar three-year span.

Drew is a good player and I am almost sure I have never said different. My contention has always been he is not worth the $14M per season that Boston pays him. And this column does nothing to change my opinion. J.D. Drew is one of the most talented players in the game, but he hasn't impacted Boston's win total any more than Trot Nixon did over a similar period of time.

J.D. Drew is a talented right fielder. He is a solid player. But he is not worth $14M per season. Period.

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Truck Day!

In what is an uniquely Boston (and therefore New England) tradition*, today is Truck Day. That is the day that the Sox load up all their equipment from Fenway and head on down to Fort Myers to start Spring Training. Or as we like to call it, Life Returning To Normal.

How seriously do we take Truck Day? Very.

The truck arrived at Fenway Park this morning just after 6:30 a.m. and the packing began at around 7:00 a.m. with a crew of seven workers. The temperature was in the mid-20s, but it's bright and sunny, just like the place the truck is headed.

The truck will depart from Fenway around noon.

Yes, we get a schedule for the truck so we can watch it when it leaves. And you can peruse the photo gallery as well. Because nothing says "baseball" like 20 different pictures of a stationary moving truck.

But more importantly, now we know that pitchers and catchers report in less than a week. And that the first full-squad workout is in less than two weeks.

I missed you, baseball. Welcome back.

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* Fairfield County in CT is excluded from this tradition. That whole bunch of New York wannabees can go cram it with walnuts.

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Solving The Development Gap?

Tony Mazz brought up this possibility for the Sox a couple of days ago: a gap in the development of their minor-league talent. Specifically, between now and 2012. And it's a view shared by others, including the Sox's owner.

...maybe we’re all reading into things too much, most recently when Henry told the Herald’s Michael Silverman last weekend that this offseason presented the Sox with a challenge because their next wave of prospects is two years away. Henry is being completely honest with that assessment, which is a credit to him and to his organization. He’s not just feeding you what you want to hear. But a statement like that also ignores the fact that the Red Sox got themselves into this predicament and that there are multiple ways to build a team.

Now, I don't think that Henry was saying the Sox wouldn't be a title-caliber team until 2012. But Mazz is also right when he says there are other ways to build a team. However, I think this frank assessment of the team's system by Henry makes something I said in my last post more likely.

I hypothesized that 2010 would be Jonathan Papelbon's last year in a Boston uniform. In part that's because he has already stated he wants to hit the open market after 2011. But another piece of that is the fact that he is a rare commodity; an elite closer. And elite closers get a big return on the market.

Now, with an acknowledged gap in the farm system, the Sox would want to fill that so that 2011 didn't consist of Boston overpaying for free agents or rushing young prospects into the majors*. And what better way to do that than trading Papelbon?

This is all contingent on one thing: Daniel Bard making the next step and not regressing in his sophmore season. If he does that, then the Sox would have the opportunity to bring in some young, cheap talent to bridge the gap and build the team for the future. If not...then the Sox would have to spend to cover the gap, and that is the kind of thing that can hamstring a franchise for years. Who knows, maybe they'd roll the dice on Bard no matter what happens. But Papelbon represents the fastest, easiest way for the Sox to get young talent to cover 2011.

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* Like they did with Craig Hansen. Hansen had all the talent in the world but the Sox crippled him by rushing him right into the majors in a blind panic in 2006.

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Five Predictions For Boston's Pitching

With pitchers and catchers on the cusp of reporting to sunny Florida, it's time to start thinking about 2010. In particular, about what will happen with the Sox this year. Ideally, it ends with Boston hoisting their third title in seven years with their foot firmly planted on New York's collective trachea.

That remains to be seen. But here are five things I think will happen with Boston's pitching staff this year.

1. Jon Lester emerges as the staff ace. Some people would argue this happened last year. But what made 2009 a great year for Lester is that he avoided "The Verducci Effect." SI's premier baseball writer, as most of you know, compiled a ton of data that showed the following (from BaseballProspectus.com):

...pitchers under the age of 25 who have 30-inning increases year over year tend to underperform. Will Carroll independently found that pitchers who break the "Rule of 30" tend to get injured. Carroll renamed this 'rule' the Verducci Effect in honor of the man who initially found the evidence.

Lester threw 63 innings in 2007 and 210.1 innings in 2008. According to the Verducci Effect, Lester should have fallen off noticeably in 2009.

Here are Lester's 2008 numbers: 16-6 | 210.1 IP | 3.21 ERA | 152 K | 66 BB | 202 H | 1.27 WHIP

Here are Lester's 2009 numbers: 15-8 | 203.1 IP | 3.41 ERA | 225 K | 64 BB | 186 H | 1.23 WHIP

In short, Lester essentially maintained his level of production and improved in one critical area: strikeouts. He threw seven less innings and registered 73 more strikeouts, which speaks to improved control and strength even in the later innings of his outings. You could argue Lester is the best left-handed starter in the majors under the age of 28, and one of the top 5 overall. This is the year he establishes himself as Boston's premier starter.

2. Clay Buchholz breaks double-digit wins. This isn't exactly a risky prediction. After spending the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009 in the minors, Clay apparently figured out how to pitch again. He went 7-4 in 16 starts with a 4.21 ERA (ERA+ 111) and pitched well in his post-season appearance. There is a big question about whether he will ever be a front-of-the-rotation pitcher or if a #4 is where he settles. But considering Buchholz feasted on the AL East (sans New York) and AL Central, there is no reason he can't get at least 10 wins in 2010.

3. Matsuzaka returns to his 2008 form. Honor and "face" are a big deal in Japanese culture. And in every respect, Daisuke Matsuzaka embarrassed himself in the first half of 2009. Quarrelsome, out-of-shape and pitching like Carlos Silva after a four-day bender, Matsuzaka looked like he wanted out of Boston. And management looked ready to help him along.

Then cooler heads prevailed, Daisuke realized he was acting like a class-A jerk and started to straighten himself out. The result was a solid September where he went 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA. His only loss was a 3-0 defeat in the Bronx, and he pitched well in it (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H)

So yes, Daisuke will always be a pitcher who walks a ton of batters and puts runners on base. He's also a pitcher who can get out of those jams. Deride that 2008 season all you want. The bottom line is that you don't run up an 18-3 record with a 2.90 ERA on blind luck. And while that won't happen in 2010, with Boston's superior defense the idea of Daisuke going 16-9 with a 3.50 ERA is not out of line.

4. Papelbon pitches his last year in Boston. Papelbon is one of the best relievers in the majors. He has gone to four straight All-Star games. Last year he posted a 1.85 ERA and saved 38 games, becoming the first pitcher to ever record 35+ saves in his first four years in the majors*.

Papelbon also posted a career high in WHIP (1.147), walks (24 - three times as many as he had in 2008) and homers (5). His strikeouts declined for the third straight year and he collapsed in the post-season.

It is undeniable that Paps is one of the best closers in the game and the best one the Sox have ever had. It is also undeniable that Boston's brass considers signing Papelbon to a long-term deal slightly less palatable than catching the Ebola virus. He becomes a free agent after the 2011 season. And Boston has his successor in young fireballer Daniel Bard. So when is Papelbon's value the highest? After the 2010 season.

Papelbon will not sign a long-term deal. So holding him into the 2011 season results in diminishing returns for the Sox. But trading him between the 2010 and 2011 seasons, giving their potential partner a full year of his services, maximizes Papelbon's value. And a top-flight closer is worth their weight in gold on the trade block. This also gives the Sox another year to let Bard settle down and prove he can close big games in the majors.

I'm not saying I want this to happen. But Theo isn't one to let a valuable player simple walk without getting anything back. Yes, there would be draft picks if Paps made it to market after 2011. But wouldn't you rather have some proven prospects/players instead of unknown picks, if you could get them? So would Theo.

5. Boston has three starters with 15+ wins. If this happened, it would be the first time for Boston since 2007. That year Beckett went 20-7, Wakes was 17-12, Daisuke posted a 15-12 record and the Sox won the World Series. The time before that was 1998. That year Pedro went 19-7, Saberhagen found his youth with a 15-8 record and Wakefield rolled to a 17-8 season.** So it isn't easy. But in Lester, Beckett and Lackey the Sox have three #1 pitchers who can definitely put up 15+ wins. If Daisuke returns to form, the Sox could possibly have four pitchers with 15+ wins. The last time that happened in Boston? 1916:

Babe Ruth: 23-12
Dutch Leonard: 18-12
Carl Mays: 18-13
Ernie Shore: 16-10

This is also the answer to the question "Can you name four guys Harry Frazee handed to the Yankees for next-to-nothing?"*** And in case you were curious, in 1915 the Sox had all five starters post 15+ wins. But post-1920s, the closest the Sox have come to four starters with 15+ wins was 1975. Rick Wise, Bill Lee and Luis Tiant all had 17+ wins while Roger Moret went 14-3.

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* Aviv, please don't start this argument up again. Let's just acknowledge this is the case and move on. I didn't even mention The Goose. Until now.

** How awesome is it that Wakefield was on both staffs? This is why he is one of my all-time favorites: longevity combined with solid contributions.

*** Little-known fact: Frazee was un-officially limited to dealing Ruth to either the Yankees or the White Sox (he was butting heads with the Commissioner at the time). The White Sox offered Boston 60K and Shoeless Joe Jackson. Of course, Frazee took the hundred grand from the Yankees. And while Jackson would have still been banned after the 1920 season, the Sox would have gotten one hellacious season out of him (12 HR, 121 RBI, .382 BA, 1.033 OPS). Instead, Boston's third outfielder (after Harry Hooper and Ruth) was the immortal Braggo Roth. How many wins would Jackson have been worth? Would he have been suspended for life if he was on a different team in 1920? Who knows, but I'd take that one assured season of greatness over an extra 40K if I was the owner.

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Best Sox Players of the Decade: 2005-2009 And Overall

So it's closing in on mid-January and I've taken longer to finish this than a full viewing of Berlin Alexanderplatz. So I am going to cut to the chase and just list who I feel were the three best players for the Sox from 2005 through 2009 and then the overall top three for the decade.

To figure the overall top three, it's simply a matter of assigning three point for a third-place score, two for second and one for third. Really easy stuff. So here we go:

2005: 3. Jason Varitek 2. Manny Ramirez 1. David Ortiz

2006: 3. Jonathan Papelbon 2. Manny Ramirez 1. David Ortiz

2007: 3. Mike Lowell 2. Jonathan Papelbon 1. Josh Beckett

2008: 3. Jon Lester 2. Kevin Youkilis 1. Dustin Pedroia

2009: 3. Jacoby Ellsbury 2. Jon Lester 1. Jason Bay

There may be some controversy here. No Manny or Ortiz after 2006 could be debated. But I think that these choices are definitely defensible.

Going with these choices, that would make the following players the three best players for the Sox between 2000-2009:

3. David Ortiz: In his seven years in Boston, Big Papi has hit 259 home runs and is hitting .288 with a .967 OPS (OPS+ 145). He has 830 RBI and 1065 hits. He currently ranks sixth in homers, fourth in OPS and seventh in RBI all-time in Boston history. He is widely considered one of the most clutch hitters in Red Sox history and was a key to Boston winning their first title since 1918. Despite his off-season in 2009, over the last seven years in Boston Ortiz has become one of the most feared designated hitters in the AL.

2. Pedro Martinez: In the first half of the decade, Pedro led the AL in win percentage twice, ERA three times, WHIP three times (including the lowest mark of the modern era with .737 in 2000), and strikeouts twice. He was The Sporting News Pitcher of the Year in 2000, won the Cy Young in 2000 and finished in the Top Four 2002-04. He is one of the best pitchers in Boston's history and was the most feared pitcher in the AL during his time with the Sox. If you were fortunate enough to see him pitch in person, you saw greatness.

1. Manny Ramirez: You could easily make the argument that Manny Ramirez is the best right-handed hitter in Boston's history*. A combination of power and average, Manny was a constant threat every single time he stepped to the plate. And he did it all with such ease that he almost looked lazy as he did it.

In eight years in Boston, Manny hit .312 with a .999 OPS (OPS+ 155). He had 274 homers, 868 RBI and 1232 hits. He went to seven straight All-Star games and was the World Series MVP in 2004. Between 2001 and 2006, Manny never had less that 33 homers, 100 RBI and 140 hits. He was the one constant in a lineup that saw massive change over his eight years in Boston; Manny was the only player still in the starting lineup in 2008 that was there in 2001. But will he be remembered for all this, or for the "Manny being Manny" stories? The PED suspension that came after his tenure in Boston? That's the question.

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* The only other real choice here is Jimmy Foxx. That's not a dig on Dewey, Doerr or Rice. It's just the reality; from the right side of the plate it's Manny, Jimmy and everyone else.

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Best Sox Players of the Decade: 2004

Ah...2004. What a fine year. What a grand year. What a wonderful, wonderful year. Not only did the Sox saddle the Yankees with the "honor" of the only baseball team to ever blow a 3-0 series lead, but they finally broke the 80+ year "curse"* and won a title. The mental relief this provided...you can't understand unless you lived and died with the Sox. We all lived with the fear we'd die without Boston winning another World Series. To know that wasn't the case...

Best Players For Boston: 2004

3. Manny Ramirez: Manny just kept mashing the ball in 2004. He hit .308 with a 1.009 OPS. He hit 43 homers and collected 130 RBI. Manny led the AL in homers, slugging percentage and OPS. Manny went to his seventh All-Star game in a row (fourth with the Sox), finished third in the MVP voting that year and won the AL Hank Aaron Award. His fielding was...well, "below-average" would be a kind and diplomatic way of putting things. But as usual, his bat more than compensated for his fielding issues. And Manny was an absolute monster in the post-season. He hit .300 or better in all three playoff series, including a mind-blowing .412 against the Cardinals with a 1.088 OPS. That performance earned him the World Series MVP.

2. David Ortiz: Papi exploded in 2004. He finished second on the team in homers (41) and led the Sox in RBI (139). He had a .983 OPS (OPS+ 145). Ortiz went to his first All-Star Game and finished fourth in the MVP voting. So why is he ahead of Manny? Two words: "clutch hitting"

In 2004, David Ortiz showed the world what being a clutch hitter was all about. Papi closed out the ALDS against the Angels with a walk-off homer in the bottom of the tenth in Game Three. And then Ortiz brought the Sox back from the brink of elimination against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS with two of the biggest hits in Boston history. Papi's walk-off homer in the twelfth inning of Game Four and his walk-off single in the bottom of the fourteenth inning in Game Five revived the Sox and helped them become the first team in MLB history to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. He was voted the MVP of the ALCS.

1. Curt Schilling: And then there is clutch pitching. Schilling was famously courted by Theo Epstein during Thanksgiving of 2003 before coming to Boston in a deal with the Diamondbacks. All that effort paid off as Schilling went 21-6 with a .778 winning percentage, both of which led the AL. He put up a 3.26 ERA (ERA+ 150) over 226.2 innings and struck out 203 batters while walking just 35 for an AL-leading K/BB ratio of 5.80. Curt went to the All-Star Game in 2004 and finished second in the Cy Young voting to Johan Santana. He was the only Boston starter to win 20+ games, pitch 220+ innings or have a WHIP under 1.100 in 2004.

But like Ortiz, Schilling made his lasting mark in the post-season in the ALCS. In Game Six, Schilling took the mound with a torn tendon sheath in his right ankle. With the tendon sutured to the connective tissue in a then-unheard of procedure, Schilling went seven innings and allowed just one run on four hits for the win. He then did it again in the World Series, allowing one run on four hits in six innings of work in Game Two. Both times the sutures tore, leading to visible bleeding through his sock. Without his gutsy performance in Game Six, there may never have been a championship parade in Boston in November of 2004.

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* The "curse" was a crock of shit, created to give book deals to sports reporters (Shaughnessy made a mint exploiting this) and to ignore that Boston's failures had more to do with bad trades and the lasting impact of the racism that permeated the upper echelons of Sox management/ownership until the late 1950s. Curses are for suckers.

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Best Sox Players of the Decade: 2003

2003 was a year of heartbreak, a year the Sox should have made it to the World Series but didn't because of Grady's inexplicable decision to leave Pedro in during Game Seven. But it was also the year that, after that GD homer and the hated Yankees began to celebrate, I said (and my wife can back this up) "The Sox are winning it all next year."* Because the Yankees didn't win that game as much as the Sox let it go. And that was a sea change in how those two teams interacted. 2003 was also the year you could see the Sox becoming a genuine contender, a pretender no longer.

Best Players For Boston: 2003

3. Trot Nixon: I said it before and I'll say it again; Trot doesn't get enough credit for what he brought to the table when healthy. In 2003 Trot had the single best season of his career. He hit .306 with a .975 OPS (OPS+ 149: best among right fielders in the AL) and tallied 28 homers to go with 87 RBI. He also led all AL right fielders with an ISO of .272** and was routinely among the top five in most other offensive categories. His glove was a little off; his fielding percentage was slightly lower than the league average. But Trot was a huge part of Boston's success in 2003. The highlight was his 11th-inning pinch-hit homer to win Game Three of the ALDS against the A's, staving off elimination and setting the stage for a three-win comeback.

2. Pedro Martinez : This wasn't Pedro's best year. He didn't go to the All-Star game or win 20 games. All he did was go 14-4 in 29 starts with a 2.22 ERA. He led the AL in win percentage, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, H/9 and K/9. Yup, this was an off year for Pedro. He was one of four starters for the Sox to win 11+ games in 2003 (Lowe led the team with 17 wins). Pedro, however, led the team in tossing insane bald men who have no business being in a brawl during the post-season.***

1. Manny Ramirez: After an injury-riddled 2002 (where he still hit like a monster), Manny kept up the pace in 2003. He hit .325 (2nd best in the AL behind teammate Bill Mueller) with 37 homers and 104 RBI. He had a 1.014 OPS (OPS+ 160) and led the AL with a .427 OBP. He racked up 185 hits (a career high) and 117 runs scored (also a career high). His glove that year wasn't atrocious, just a little beneath the league average for left field. But he more than made up for that with his bat. And this was the first year we saw the Ramirez/Ortiz tandem in action. They combined for 68 homers and 205 RBI that year. It would have been more but Papi was platooning at DH at the beginning of the season until management realized this was incredibly stupid.

This was also the year that "Manny being Manny" kicked into gear. Remember how he was "sick" but spotted in a bar with Enrique Wilson? The result was Theo putting Ramirez on irrevocable waivers after the ALCS. And no one took the deal. In retrospect, not a smart move on the part of the 29 other teams as far as keeping the Sox from winning titles. But the drama factor ratcheted up 1000% over the next few years in Boston.

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*This is the greatest prediction I ever made in my life and I still brag about it whenever the opportunity comes up. Of course, nailing something this huge rarely happens for me. I'm also the guy who said earlier that year that no one would want to watch a movie made on the Pirates of the Caribbean ride at Disney World. So there you go.

** Isolated Power, abbreviated as ISO, is a measure of a hitter's raw power, in terms of extra bases per AB. Trot had some pop.

*** That is still the craziest post-season game I have ever seen. Not only did you have the brawl and Zimmer getting planted like a deranged garden gnome, but you had Jeff Nelson and Karim Garcia attacking a Sox groundskeeper for having the audacity to cheer for the Red Sox. And please don't say they didn't do it. One year later Garcia and Shane Spencer (then both with the Mets) were in an altercation with a pizzy delivery guy. As Pedro famously said, "Who are you, Karim Garcia?" The answer is "a guy with major control issues".

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Best Sox Players of the Decade: 2002

2002 will be remembered not for what happened on the field (a very respectable 93-69 second-place finish) but for what happened off the field. The Harrington Trust sold the Sox to the ownership group headed by John Henry and Dan Duquette was fired as GM. That set the stage for the most successful period in Boston Red Sox history since the First World War. And although the Sox missed out on the playoffs again in 2002, they had some strong contributors on the team.

Best Players For Boston: 2002

3. Derek Lowe: This was the year Lowe transitioned back into a starting role. To say it was a success would be an understatement. Lowe went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA over 32 starts. He pitched 219.2 innings and had a WHIP of 0.974. His ERA+ was 177, good for second in the AL behind Pedro. Lowe made his second All-Star game that year and finished third in the Cy Young voting behind Pedro and the 2002 winner...Barry Zito.*

2. Manny Ramirez: Manny's name will appear often on these lists for the simple reason that he is one of the greatest hitters in the history of the sport. He makes batting look like anyone could do it and that is how you know he is one of the greats. In 2002 Manny put up decent numbers for Manny...the kind of numbers any other hitter would kill for. Manny hit .349 with 33 homers and 107 RBI and lead the AL in batting average. He had an OPS of 1.097 and an OPS+ of 184. And he did all this despite playing in just 120 games that year; Manny injured his hammy and missed most of May and all of June. He still made his 6th All-Star game that year and finished ninth in the MVP voting.

In a lot of ways, I think of this as Manny's most impressive year. He put up a full season's worth of hitting in 3/4 of a season. He was a pain in the ass and I do think he had to move on, but that shouldn't stop us from recognizing his massive talent or what he did for the team.

1. Pedro Martinez: I cannot emphasize enough what a unique experience it was to watch Pedro Martinez in his prime. Rarely do you ever get to see someone so dominant in his profession play for your team. Pedro had another amazing year in 2002 after an injury-plagued 2001. He went 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA. He struck out 239 batters and walked just 40 for a K/BB ratio of 5.98. His K/9 ratio was 10.8 and he had a WHIP of 0.923. His ERA+ was 202, the third time in four years that his ERA+ was over 200. And all those stats I just mentioned – except for wins – led all pitchers in the AL. He went to his sixth All-Star game in seven years and finished second in the Cy voting behind Barry Zito.** It was also the last time Pedro would win 20 games in a season.

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*That's not a misprint, folks. Has a pitcher from the AL ever gone to the NL and gotten worse?

** For the record, Pedro got screwed. Everyone looked at Zito's 23 wins and 200+ innings and ignored the fact that Pedro led the AL in WHIP, ERA, winning percentage and strikeouts. He was the first pitcher to lead a league in all four categories and not win the Cy Young. And Zito was racking up those wins against weak sisters like Texas, Tampa, KC and Seattle. Meanwhile, Pedro beat the Yankees twice, Cleveland twice and Anaheim twice.

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Best Sox Players of the Decade: 2001

Ah, 2001...what a crap year for the Sox. They took second-place in the AL East with a pathetic 82-79 record, which still stands as their worst finish since 1997. Jimy Williams wore out his welcome before the season was over and Joe Kerrigan led the team to a 17-26 finish. No pitcher finished with more than 13 wins and no batter hit better than .306. Nevertheless, there were some decent performances that year.

Best Players For Boston: 2001

3. Brian Daubach: Referred to at the time by my wife as "the ugliest man in baseball"*, Daubach had a solid year for the Sox at first base. He hit .263 but had an OPS of .859, which translated into a OPS+ of 122, a better number than Tino Martinez put up in New York that year. He hit 22 homers and racked up 71 RBI, both third-best on the team. And he had a good glove at first, along with that "Dirt Dog" mentality that made him a crowd favorite during his time in Boston.

2. Trot Nixon: Speaking of "Dirt Dogs"...Nixon could still walk into any bar in Boston and not pay for a single drink. He gave 100% on the field all the time, which was why he found it so hard to stay healthy in his last few years in Boston (he never played more than 152 games in any season and averaged 105 games played over his last four years in Boston). But 2001 was one of Trot's two best years in Boston. He played 148 games and hit .280 with and .881 OPS. His OPS+ of 128 was fifth-best among outfielders in the AL that year.** Trot's 27 homers and 88 RBI were both second-best on the team and he set career-highs for himself in hits (150), runs scored (100), walks (79) and total bases (270). Was his glove the best? No...but you'll never get me to say a bad word about Nixon. If everyone played the game with his level of dedication, it would transform the sport.

1. Manny Ramirez: The inaugural year of Manny-mania. After spending the off-season watching Duquette prostate himself on ESPN in a desperate bid to bring Manny to Boston, we all found out his effort was worthwhile. Manny stepped in primarily as a DH in 2001*** and promptly began beating the hell out of the ball. His 41 homers and 125 RBI were the most by any Boston batter since Mo Vaughn put up 44 and 143 in 1996. He hit .306 and posted a 1.014 OPS (OPS+ 161), best among all DHs that year. Manny did play 55 games in left in 2001, and he had a fielding percentage of 1.000...yes, Manny was perfect in left.

What was stunning about Manny for fans in that first year (at least for me) was how he made hitting look easy. When Mo was crushing the ball in the 90s, there was visible effort. When Manny smacked one over the Monster, it looked like he was barely trying. All his other foibles aside (and they are legion), he is one of the greatest hitters the game has ever seen.

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*I don't know if that's 100% true ... but do you remember when Dauber had that Abe Lincoln beard going? Upped the ugly factor about five times. Shaving that thing was the best thing he ever did.

** That's not a misprint. Better than Ichiro, Beltran, Shannon Stewart and Paul O'Neill. If Nixon had been able to stay healthy, he'd have put up some decent career numbers.

*** Left-field was primarily divided between three players: Manny got his 55 games, Troy O'leary started 45 and Dante Bichette started 37. Remember Bichette? We paid him $7M that year for 12 homers, 49 RBI and some of the worst fielding performances ever in right field. He played 16 games there (started 15) and had a fielding percentage of .909. Thanks, Dan!****

**** Yes, I know Duquette made some great trades, especially the Slocumb for Varitek/Lowe deal that stands as one of the all-time greats. But he also saddled the Sox with a lot of deadwood. Bichette, Kevin Mitchell, Jose Canseco, Jim Leyritz...you get the idea.

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Best Sox Players of the Decade: 2000

I figured with the cold weather and slowdown of the hot stove, combined with what everyone else considers to be the end of the decade*, that it may be fun to look at the best players who have played for Boston over the past 10 years. We'll go year-by-year and then end with a Top 10 for the decade before the New Year...maybe.

Best Players For Boston: 2000

3. Carl Everett: What? Jurassic Carl? The man who decided dinosaurs didn't exist but graciously conceded that we may have landed on the moon? Yup. People remember the controversy (most memorably his dustup with Ron Kulpa on national television**) and the quotes ("curly-headed boyfriend" may be the best thing Everett gave Boston), but in 2000 Everett also had a monster season. He hit .300 for the season and posted a .959 OPS, which translated into an OPS+ of 135. He hit 37 homers and collected 108 RBI, leading the Sox in both categories. He was also a deadly clutch hitter that year, breaking up scoreless games late with a frightening regularity. And his fielding was good enough that the Sox didn't lose anything with him patrolling center. The result was that Carl went to his first All-Star game in 2000.

2. Nomar Garciaparra: This was Nomah! at the height of his powers. He hit a hellacious .372 for the year, the best season in Boston by anyone not carrying the surname of Williams or Speaker. He also posted a 1.033 OPS (OPS+ 155) while racking up 197 hits, 21 homers and 96 RBI. He led the AL in batting average and the Sox in hits, OPS and total bases (317). He was voted into his third All-Star Game in 2000 and finished ninth in the MVP voting. It's almost impossible to remember now that at this point in his career, we all thought he'd be a lifer for the Sox and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. How times change...

1. Pedro Martinez: Speaking of first-ballot Hall of Famers... In 1999, Pedro had one of the greatest single seasons by any pitcher in the history of the game. That year he won the Cy, went to the All-Star game and came within a whisker of the MVP***. In 2000, Pedro actually topped himself. He went 18-6 in 29 starts with a ridiculous 1.74 ERA. And no, that is not a misprint. The only pitchers since the end of WWI that posted a better seasonal ERA have names like Gibson, Maddux, Koufax, Chance, Hubbell and Tiant.**** Most impressive was Pedro's WHIP, which was a minuscule 0.737 and the best season for WHIP by a starting pitcher in the history of the game. Pedro racked up 284 strikeouts and walked just 32 batters for a K/BB ratio of 8.88, the sixth-best season for K/BB in MLB history. His K/9 number of 11.77 was ninth-best in MLB history. Pedro's H/9 ratio of 5.33? Fourth best in MLB history. Pedro's ERA+ for 2000 was 291, the best number of the modern era. Only Tim Keefe had a better number (294), and he set that mark in 1880.

If you were lucky enough to watch Pedro in 1999-2000, you saw one of the best pitchers in the history of the game put together two monster seasons back-to-back. It was like getting to watch Gibson pitch in 1968, Koufax in his jaw-dropping final two years (1965-66) or Bob Feller from 1939-41. Pedro owned the mound, the crowd and the opposition.

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* Look, the first year was the year 1, not 0. Therefore the decade begins in 2001 and ends in 2010. But since the cultural zeitgeist demands we simplify everything down, I'll bow to the erroneous standard for the purposes of writing these posts. But the Yankees still aren't the Team of the Decade. We have one more year to go.

** If you remember, the argument was over the line for the interior of the batter's box. Everett said he could have his foot on the line, Kulpa said it had to be inside the line. On a 2-2 count in the second inning, Kulpa called Everett on his stance and then drew a line with his foot. Everett though Kulpa was showing him up (which he was), threw his helmet down and...head-butted Kulpa. Well, supposedly head-butted Kulpa. If you look at the film, Everett's seems to knock Kulpa back 10 feet with his nose, not his forehead. But it looked bad and it was a national game, so Everett got a 10-game suspension and that began his slow decline in Boston.

*** That Pedro didn't win the MVP that year still infuriates me. He was the entire reason the Sox reached the post-season. He got more first-place votes than anyone else. He won the pitching Triple Crown (wins, Ks, ERA). But two knuckleheads (LaVelle Neal of the Minneapolis's Star-Tribune and George King of the New York Post) decided that they could ignore the rules for MVP voting and left Martinez off their ballots completely. And then they gave that lame "he plays every fifth day" bullshit excuse even though that isn't in the rules for voting! Just a travesty all the way around.

**** Let it be noted, however, that the lowest seasonal ERA posted by any pitcher since 1968, and the second-lowest since 1919, belongs to Doc Gooden. He posted a 1.53 ERA during his amazing 1985 season for the Mets. See Mets fans, I can say something nice about your team. Of course, you have to go to the history books to do it...

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It All Starts To Come Together

The Hot Stove season began with a lackluster start. The Sox signing Marco Scutaro to a two/three year deal - when he isn't that much better than the guy who manned short at the end of 2009 - was not exactly inspiring. In fact, it downright bummed me out.

Scutaro is 34 years old and coming off surgery. His admittedly stellar 2009 season is an anomaly in his career. It stands out like a newbie at a Vegas blackjack table who splits his 10s. Scutaro's best batting average prior to last year was 2004 when he hit .273. His best OPS was in 2006 when he reached .747. His current 162 game average is hitting .265 with 13 homers, 50 RBI and a .721 OPS. Those numbers are marginally better than Gonzalez's 162 average (.247/15/69/.689). But even that average is influenced heavily by his anomalous 2009 season. Oh, did I mention he's 34? Let me do it again: he's a 34-year old shortstop! Unless your last name is Jeter* or your first name is Ozzie, I'm not trusting you at short at that age.

And then things got very interesting. The signing of Mike Cameron was a nice compliment to trading for Hermida. And while I would have liked Bay to come back, Cameron does have a better glove and strikes out less. Plus, it saved the Sox somewhere around $8M a year and freed up money for 2011 and beyond.

What I didn't see coming, but was kind of hoping for, was the Sox swooping in for John Lackey.

Make no mistake, this is a huge deal. The Sox have adequately answered the Yankees' move for Sabathia last season. You could solidly argue that the Sox front three of Beckett, Lester and Lackey is superior to the Yankees' Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte. And I'll take Daisuke and Wakes/Tazawa over Joba and a spare part on the back side any day of the week.

And for those who keep saying Lackey can't beat the Yankees, between 2007-2009 Lackey is 2-1 in six starts with a 3.14 ERA against the Yankees. They hit at a .255 clip off of Lackey over those games, which is to say they aren't exactly killing the ball. So Lackey is a little better against New York as of late, better than the stats would lead you to believe.

So Theo came through, deciding to go with pitching and defense as opposed to crafting a slugfest lineup. Which isn't a bad plan; the truth is that since Yankee Stadium is practically a Pitch 'Em Cage right now, trying to outslug the Yankees is not practical or even smart. Good defense is good everywhere; mashing bats can die in certain stadiums and against certain pitchers.

That said, the Sox still need one more piece. And I am praying it is Adrian Gonzalez.

Yes, the Padres don't need to deal him. And yes, he will cost a load. But he would put the Sox over the top and even the playing field with the Yanks without sacrificing defense. The one caveat to trying to deal for Gonzalez is that the Sox should not add Ellsbury as part of any deal. That is subtracting strength from one area to add in another and wouldn't improve the team overall. If I was Theo, I'd make an offer like this: Buchholz, Hermida, Lars Anderson, Ryan Westmoreland and either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick. The final four players are Boston's 2nd-5th best prospects. That's just an idea; I would wager there are other players and other variations that could work. Yes, it would be costly. But for a player like Gonzalez, you make that kind of deal.

With Gonzalez at first, the Sox would have a deadly lineup. Your top five would be Ellsbury, Pedroia and then a mix of Gonzalez, V-Mart and Youk. That matches any lineup in the game, including New York's. The single biggest obstacle to this is the simple fact that San Diego doesn't have to deal Gonzalez at this point. But the Sox have the parts to craft a deal if they are willing to move the prospects.

Even if that doesn't happen, Theo has made some solid moves this off-season and put the Sox right back in the hunt. And he did so while weakening the team that knocked Boston out of the post-season in 2009. You have to like a two-fer like that.

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* Yes, okay? Even I have to admit Jeter had a great 2009 at the age of 35. Damn it....

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And The Shortstop Carousel Continues

With Alex Gonzalez signing a one-year deal with Toronto, the shortstop position in Boston is, once again, open for business.

You would think, after five years of being unable to find a steady shortstop, that Theo would consider resigning someone who hit .284 and had a .994 fielding percentage with the Sox for at least one more year. You know, as a precaution. Just in case Jed Lowrie breaks one of his glass bones or something.

Nope. That would be crazy. Instead, Theo lets A-Gonz walk away for a pittance and we now are looking at...who exactly? And the first one of you knuckleheads that says "Hanley Ramirez" gets banned for a week.

Right now we have Lowrie, who apparently is more fragile than a Faberge egg. In system we have a couple of guys who could potentially be great shortstops. There's Yamacio Navarro as well as the recent Cuban signing Jose Iglesias. And if Casey Kelly isn't traded and doesn't become a pitcher, he's in that "shortstop of the future" mix as well. But those guys are all 1+ years off. Who do we have right now? No one. And so we have to look through the FA/Trade junkheap.

That's where you find someone like Adam Everett, he of the .613 OPS, .288 OBP and a weaker glove than Gonzo's. Or maybe we could pick up Marco Scutaro from the Jays. He's only 34, which I hear is a great age for shortstops. He also had a .984 fielding percentage. That's lower than what Gonzo gave the Sox, right? Or maybe Theo could bring back Orlando Cabrera, at which point I will make the two-hour trip to Boston so I can throw myself on the third rail at Downtown Crossing. Because what screams "I have a plan!" more than bringing back the shortstop you never should have gotten rid of five years ago? Oh, and it's not like his glove has deteriorated during that time.*

Gonzo wasn't perfect by a long shot. But he was a better choice that the scrapheap the Sox can pick at in the off-season. Unless Theo is lining up some trade for a quality shortstop that no one even sees coming at this point, short will be the weak point - AGAIN - for the Sox going into 2010. Wheeeee!

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* Which is to say, it has fallen off substantially. Between 2005-2008, Cabrera's FP held between .975 and .988. Last year it fell to .965 and his 25 errors (between Minny and Oakland) were the most Cabrera has had since he had 29 in 2002 back in Montreal. But hey, I'm sure it will all work out just fine.

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