Big Cuts: Week 1

A discussion of the week's events
Aviv: It's been a mixed bag for the Sox and Yanks to open the season with Boston going 2-4 and New York 3-3. For Boston, all six games have been close, three runs or less. Dave, I'm wondering if the Sox are beginning to miss Manny Ramirez's bat. Here's was what Kevin Youkilis said after Sunday's loss to the Angels.

“If we were losing 10-4 every day, there would be a problem. We’re in every game pretty much. If it comes down to where one swing drives in a run to win or tie the game, that’s where you’ve got to be.’’

In the past, the Sox had Manny to provide that one swing or provide the protection to allow someone else to get that big hit.

Dave: That's what a lot of people believe. Manny leaving was a big deal and it looks like an easy answer to a particular problem.

Of course, the Sox were 3-4 after seven games last year, a record they'll match if they win their next game. Manny was with them during that time.

And if you look at the month-by-month splits, the Sox had their best two months in 2008 in August and September. In fact, their largest single month run total was in August when they drove 170 runs across the plate. By that time Manny was fighting with Torre over his dreds in La-La Land.

What's bothering the Sox is a simple slump. The shame is that it is coming early in the year. That and Jed Lowrie having no luck swinging the bat. He's almost making me pine for Julio Lugo.

But what about the Yanks, Aviv? Hundreds of millions for A-list superstars and the Parthenon of Greed, and the result is 3-3? Granted, CC proved he can beat the weak sister in the AL Central. But what about Wang's fragile foot? The fact that Jason Varitek is out-hitting Mark Teixeira? Or that Matsui looks completely shot? Will Girardi even make it through April at this rate?

Aviv: If Girardi continues to handle the bullpen the way he did Sunday, the answer will be no, but I don't expect him to again make the mistake of pitching Bruney in the seventh with no right-handed answer available in the eighth.

But the first week for the Yankees has not been about their offense, which is averaging 5.8 runs a game and has scored no fewer than four in any of the six games, even with Teixeira off to a mediocre start and Matsui slumping.

The first week has been about the Yankees' pitching. CC and Wang were horrible the first two games, but the Yanks have gotten solid to great starts the next four outings. And if not for Girardi's bullpen blunder Sunday, they would be 4-2. Still 3-3 is OK, especially when you consider that from 2004-2008, the Yanks' April record was 48-64.

CC made a correction in the mechanics during his bullpen session after that disaster Monday and dominated the Royals. But, Dave, you can't seriously believe Sabathia dominated simply because he was facing the Royals. He did have a slow start with the Indians last year, but don't forget, he was the AL Cy Young winner only two seasons ago. He can pitch in this league. Here's something to remember about CC, entering this season, he was 11-10 with a 4.47 ERA in 32 April starts in his career.

The Yanks also say Wang found a "mechanical flaw" in his bullpen session this week. We'll find out today. If he struggles again, I'll start worrying, but if not, look out -- this rotation will be rolling.

The Red Sox starters, however, haven't exactly been as advertised, Dave. Is Jon Lester suffering for the effects of throwing 200 innings for the first time. Will Daisuke Matsuzaka ever learn to throw strikes? Can Tim Wakefield still beat quality teams? Even Beckett took a loss.

Dave: I would like to mount a vigorous defense of the Boston rotation, but I can't.

They haven't been bad, per se. As Youk said, the Sox have been in every game. I would only leave Lester's start out of that statement. But Beckett's first start was the only solid start Boston has had so far. Brad Penny is the second-best pitcher in the rotation right now. That's good for Theo's free-agent acumen, not so much for the team.

Am I concerned about Lester? I know all the pitfalls for him. But he does have his age and size working in his favor. If he was built like Cole Hamels, I would want Boston getting Smoltz ready yesterday. And he starts slow. I think we need a few more games for Lester before we know whether or not to worry.

Was I kidding about CC? Well, his six wins in Cleveland were against KC, Toronto, Oakland, Minny, San Diego and Cincy. Not exactly a murderer's row of competition.

Wang found a "mechanical flaw" The flaw is that his Lisfranc is a mess. You don't bail before the fourth inning with a bad delivery.

Aviv: You do if that flaw leaves your sinker flat and you get pounded. With Wang it's simple. If his sinker isn't diving down, he gets crushed because he hasn't fully developed a third and fourth reliable pitch yet. I really don't think Wang's struggles have anything to do with his Lisfranc. Bruney had that Lisfranc tear last year, too, and he's pitching great. I expect Wang to turn it around today.

The injury I'd be more worried about if I was a Sox fan, would be David Ortiz's wrist. I know he tends to get off to slow starts, hitting .267 in April for his career and .198 last year, but with Manny no longer around, the Sox either needed Papi and the offense to start fast or the rotation to dominate. They got neither.

They Yankees haven't started as well as they hoped either, but should Wang turn it around today, they'll be in great shape. And if they finish April at or slightly above .500, look out. From 2004-08, the Yankees' record from May on was 418-270 (.608). I'd expect that trend to continue.

Dave: I think the truth is that it is too early to worry about both teams. Although I think you are way too optimistic about Wang's Lisfranc.

I am not concerned about Papi vis-a-vis Manny in the lineup. The numbers appear to back that idea (no monthly OPS over .904 after Manny left). But you said it yourself; Papi is a slow starter. That .904 OPS came in September after a major wrist injury. That's an impressive performance. Without Manny in the lineup the Sox came within a game of the World Series and finished with the second highest run total in the AL. And since the best team was Texas, that shows you which matters more in the batting/pitching debate.

The Sox pitching is more worrisome. But Lester needs a couple of more starts so we can get a feel of where he is. The rest of the lineup has kept Boston in their games, it's just that most of the time they can't get that critical run across the plate. But give it another couple of weeks and the Sox should be just fine. Come August, they'll be running like a fine-tuned car. The question is whether the high-priced models in New York will still be running or showing their age.