Yankees: Heroes and Zeros

I did this earlier for the Red Sox. In that case, it was about finding the bright spots in a season that resulted in yet-another last place finish. In this case, with the Yankees, it's more about digging for the disappointments.

Make no mistake; this Yankee team over-performed relative to just about everybody's expectations. There were plenty of die-hard Yankee fans who looked at this team and thought third place would be doing well. But on the back of their most devastating late-game pitching duo since the late 90s and some productive years from aging veterans, the Yankees made it into the wild-card playoff game. And that is after leading the AL East for the majority of the season. All stats are courtesy of Fangraphs.

Heroes:

Didi Gregorius

Projected: 495 Plate Appearances | 132 H | 9 HR | 48 RBI | 35 BB | 95 K | .251 BA | .307 OBP | .369 SLG | .676 OPS | 1.8 WAR

Actual: 578 Plate Appearances | 139 H | 9 HR | 56 RBI | 33 BB | 85 K | .265 BA | .318 OBP | .370 SLG | .688 OPS | 3.1 WAR



Mark Teixeira

Projected: 377 Plate Appearances | 77 H | 17 HR | 65 RBI | 41 BB | 73 K | .236 BA | .326 OBP | .433 SLG | .759 OPS | 1.5 WAR

Actual: 462 Plate Appearances | 100 H | 31 HR | 79 RBI | 59 BB | 85 K | .255 BA | .357 OBP | .548 SLG | .906 OPS | 2.9 WAR



Alex Rodriguez

Projected: 407 Plate Appearances | 82 H | 15 HR | 57 RBI | 40 BB | 99 K | .229 BA | .312 OBP | .399 SLG | .711 OPS | 1.3 WAR

Actual: 620 Plate Appearances | 131 H | 33 HR | 86 RBI | 84 BB | 145 K | .250 BA | .356 OBP | .486 SLG | .842 OPS | 2.7 WAR



Dellin Betances

Projected: 4-1 | 2.39 ERA | 66 Game Appearances | 82.7 IP | 116 K | 33 W | 1.10 WHIP | 1.5 WAR

Actual: 6-4 | 1.50 ERA | 74 Game Appearances | 84.0 IP | 131 K | 40 W | 1.01 WHIP | 2.4 WAR



Andrew Miller

Projected: 5-2 | 2.59 ERA | 58 Game Appearances | 48.7 IP | 76 K | 21 W | 1.11 WHIP | 0.7 WAR

Actual: 3-2 | 1.90 ERA | 60 Game Appearances | 61.2 IP | 100 K | 20 W | 0.86 WHIP | 36 SV | 2.0 WAR



Nathan Eovaldi

Projected: 8-9 | 4.51 ERA | 28 Games Started | 159.7 IP | 121 K | 48 W | 1.37 WHIP | 1.6 WAR

Actual: 14-3 | 4.20 ERA | 27 Game Started | 154.1 IP | 121 K | 49 W | 1.45 WHIP | 3.2 WAR



As big a surprise as A-Rod was this year, I was blown away by what Didi Gregorius did for the Yankees. Viewed as placefiller for the retired Jeter, nobody was expecting much from Didi. The idea was his glove would be a little better but his bat would be worse. It would, in essence, be a wash.

So here's a stat to tell you what actually happened: Didi's 3.1 WAR is the highest for a Yankee starting shortstop since 2009. He performed so far above and beyond expectations that he is, to me, the MVP of the team. He is only 25 years old and all he cost the Yankees in trade is Shane Greene. Without a doubt, this is one of Brian Cashman's best deals in his career.

At the other end of the "unexpected production" scale are Teixeira and A-Rod. Both aging veterans, both with declining numbers, one injury-prone and the other coming off a year-long suspension...the expectation was that they would be average at best, being paid way too much for their production.

And while they may still be overpaid, they also both pretty much doubled their expected WAR. Even playing only 111 games, Teixeira gave the Yankees a year's worth of production. And Rodriguez may have unintentionally shown all of baseball that giving an aging superstar a year off to rest could be beneficial. All his PED baggage aside, he was solid this year and is one of the big reasons the Yankees even had a chance to make it into the ALDS.

But the main reason the Yankees made it that far was their 1-2 pitching punch at the end of the game. Betances and Miller reminded me a lot of the '96 Yankees with Mariano Rivera setting up John Wetteland. If the Yankees carried a lead into the eighth inning, or were even tied or just a run behind, they knew they had a good chance of winning with Betances and Miller pitching. That kind of support on the mound makes a good team better. And while they faded late in the season, there is no reason to doubt if they can do it again next year.

Unzipping 2015: Comparing Boston and New York - First Base

You can read the first piece comparing the catchers to get an idea about the metric being used here. To give a short bullet point about ZiPS - it will hopefully give us a relatively accurate look at how a player will perform in the future based on their performance in the past. It weighs four years of data, other metrics and uses age regression.

In the catcher comparison, New York's Brian McCann was projected to have better stats over Boston's Christian Vazquez. But he also costs almost $5M more per WAR.

Now we look at first base. Boston and New York have two of the older first basemen in the league. Which doesn't matter if they can give you the production you need. But neither Mike Napoli nor Mark Teixeira played in more than 125 games last year. They both had an OPS under .800 as well. So how does 2015 look?

Boston: Mike Napoli

2015: 115 G | 95 H | 54 RBI | .241 BA | .353 OBP | .441 SLG | .794 OPS | 2.4 WAR | Cost per WAR: $6,666,666.67 | Age: 33

New York: Mark Teixeira

2015: 90 G | 77 H | 65 RBI | .236 BA | .326 OBP | .433 SLG | .759 OPS | 1.5 WAR | Cost per WAR: $15,416,666.67 | Age: 34

Ouch. Teixeira's number are actually a little better than his 2014 performance, but that may be because he is projected to play 33 fewer games. Napoli's numbers are down a little across the board except for his slugging and OPS, which are both slightly higher.

Neither player is particularly cost-effective at their position, although Napoli is much closer to that ideal. Teixeira's insanely high cost is even more stark when compared to other high-money first basemen. Miguel Cabrera costs Detroit a little over $5.5M per WAR. Jose Abreu is costing the White Sox only $3,333,415 per WAR. Even Albert Pujols, who has one of the most insane contracts in the majors (he'll make $30M at age 41!), is costing the Angels $6.67M per WAR. Granted, these costs will go up over time and Abreu is six years younger than Teixeira. But this does give you an idea of what Teixeira is costing the Yankees by being their first baseman. And that contract has one more year on it. Napoli's contract runs out this year.

The real kicker here is that Napoli is providing Boston with almost 1 full win more than Teixeira is giving New York. With a cost that is 43% cheaper than what Teixeira costs New York. That hurts.

But, before Boston fans start patting themselves on the back, here is one more line. Let's call him Player X

2015: 152 G | 153 H | 94 RBI | .269 BA | .358 OBP | .493 SLG | .851 OPS | 4.2 WAR | Cost per WAR: $1,190,476.19 | Age: 25

Okay, let's not call him Player X anymore. That, Boston fans, is the projection for Anthony Rizzo. The young first baseman the Red Sox traded to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez.

Ouch.

So while Teixeira may have a slightly better stat line, Napoli is providing more WAR at a lower cost. To me, that gives Boston the edge at first base over the Yankees.

Time To Take A Deep Breath

April has never been Mark Teixeira's month.

A career .240 hitter in the season's first month, Tex is accustomed to slow starts.

But this April has been beyond slow, even by Teixeira's standards.