Built For The Grind...And Beating The Yankees

The 2009 Boston Red Sox season was one that ended in disappointment. Not only did they lose to an Anaheim Angels team that many people thought they should have been able to beat in the ALDS, but the hated Yankees added another championship to their name. Not exactly the way we fans wanted things to end.

That will change this year.

Rather than over-react to what happened and pursue every big bat and big name in the free agent market, Theo Epstein and company went out with a plan. The first part was to bolster the pitching rotation, which was decimated by injuries last year. Adding John Lackey to the rotation not only gave Boston the best front three in the game today, but it also weakened a potential post-season rival. Never mind that now the Sox don't have to face him any more...Lackey was a pain in the ass.

The nay-sayers will point out that Lackey hasn't pitched 200+ innings or started 30+ games in the last two years. Both points are true, but Lackey isn't being asked to lead the rotation now. He's also only 30 years old and in his prime. Is there a better #3 pitcher in the game today? No.

The front three of Beckett, Lester and Lackey more than matches up with New York's trio of Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte*. The real question comes at the back end. I'd give Buchholz the edge over Hughes right now only because Buchholz has more experience as a starter and proved himself finally capable of starting in 2009. The real question is whether Wakefield/Matsuzaka or Vazquez will do more for their team in 2010.

Vazquez pitched well with the White Sox in 2007-08 and with the Braves in 2008-09. And although he is atrocious lifetime against the Red Sox (2-7, 4.23 ERA, 1.394 WHIP, 11 G), he can pitch in the AL. Wakefield was one of the best pitchers in the AL over the first half of 2009. He's also been one of the most steady in recent memory, winning 10+ games in six of the last seven years. But he has broken down in the second half of the season the last two years. Matsuzaka seemed to regain his skills over the final few games of 2009 but every game he pitches is an adventure in walks and run prevention. How these pitchers perform for their teams will go a long way to determining how the season goes for the Yankees and Sox respectively.

The Sox bullpen, annually one of the best in the game, will continue to be so...with one large question. Boston strengthened their pen with last-minute addition Scott Schoeneweis and stole a march on the rest of the MLB with getting Scott Atchison into camp early and onto the roster. The reliable Hideki Okajima returns along with promising youngster Daniel Bard. Hot-and-cold Manny Delcarmen will look to become more consistent and finally grow into his considerable natural talent.

And then there is Paps.

Yes, he had 38 saves. He had a 1.85 ERA. But he also imploded in the post-season and looked shaky in the regular season. His final numbers masked what was a very uneven season for Papelbon. Frankly, Papelbon was a little lucky in the regular season and his luck finally ran out in the ALDS. If he can return to his historic dominant self, all the better for Boston. If not, then the Sox will have trouble getting through the post-season once again.

On the field, the Sox have assembled a group that will be one of the best defensive teams in Boston's history. They have Gold Gloves at first (Youk), second (Pedroia) and third (Beltre) along with Mike Cameron in center. Moving Ellsbury to left cuts down the amount of ground he has to cover and maximizes his prodigious speed. Marco Scutaro at short (while I still question his ability to hit like he did in 2009) brings a top-notch glove to the position. This team is very much built for run-prevention.

And that was the right call.

Many people (Aviv among them) have said that Boston's big problem is that they don't have enough power. They won't be able to produce enough with their lineup. That they will be overwhelmed by New York's hitting.

Ummm...no. First off, to try and compete with New York based on their strength would have been suicide. There is no way, even if Boston had kept Bay and added another bat, that the Sox would have been able to out-slug the Yankees. New York is a power team built for a park that rewards that power.

That is also their weakness. If you can neutralize their run-production, they become a much easier team to beat..."easier" being a relative term when it comes to New York. But last year, when held to four runs or less, New York went 25-44. Once they hit that five run mark, the Yankees became near unstoppable. So to try and outslug the Yankees is madness. The trick is to hold them down. And that is what Boston's team is built to do. Last year's problem wasn't run-production, it was defense.

Second, the idea that Boston is "power-challenged" in their lineup is a bit of a myth. True, they aren't stacked with guys that crack 40+ homers each and every year. But they do have six batters capable of hitting 20+ homers. And run-production as a sign of a team's ability to win is somewhat inaccurate. Boston's 2007 championship team scored fewer runs than the 2009 version. New York's 2007 team produced 53 more runs that their title-winning team last year.

The time-worn phrase we hear in relation to football is "Offense sells tickets; Defense wins championships." Well, I believe that by-and-large applies to baseball as well.Yes, you do need offense; Toronto has one of the best fielding teams over the last two years and they haven't won squat. But combine an offense that can generate at least 850 runs with a defense that doesn't give away runs to their opponents and you have the makings for a team that can make a run at the title. Boston will have both those elements this year.

Of course, the Yankees will be the big obstacle for Boston this year. And while they got stronger on paper in their rotation (Vazquez), lineup (Nick Johnson) and in the field (Granderson), their path to a repeat isn't easy. It's hard as hell to be a repeat champion in baseball, probably more than any other game. You can have all the talent in the world, but without lucky breaks along the way you won't win. And there is another reason.

Sooner or later, age has to start telling with some of their players. Posada is 38. Jeter will be 36 mid-season. A-Rod will be 35 in July. Pettitte will be 38. Mo Rivera is around 142 but apparently he was born on Krypton because his age doesn't matter. But these are key players who have excelled year-after-year but are approaching ages where their production should start to fade. New York has to hope that doesn't happen if they want to even come close to competing for the title again in 2010.

So who will win the AL East? Either New York or Boston, with the other team as the wild-card. Tampa has too many questions in their bullpen even with a new closer. Toronto and Baltimore are still years away from competing, although Baltimore could be interesting.

As for a title...history would dictate it won't be the Yankees. And the Sox are built for a 162-game grind, to win the close games and neutralize the power other teams will bring against them. Bats can slump, while gloves don't...unless your name is Chuck Knoblauch**.

Get ready for your third title in seven years, Sox fans.

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* Look for Lester to be a dark horse Cy candidate this year. He should have gotten a couple of votes last year.

** Too soon?

The Quest Begins Anew

The toughest thing in sports just may be to repeat a championship.

The last time it happened in baseball, the 1998-2000 Yankees. Before that? The 1992-93 Blue Jays. And before that? The 1977-78 Yankees.

That's because unless you're the UConn women's basketball team, you not only have to be very good, you also have to catch enough breaks and avoid injury. In other words: You need to be a little bit lucky.

You also need to avoid that plague known as complacency.

So can the Yankees repeat in 2010?

Count on it.

There is a reason the Yankees have won 27 World Championships in their illustrious history: They expect to win -- every year. And a title doesn't change that expectation. Not for the Steinbrenner family. Not for Brian Cashman. Not for Joe Girardi. And certainly not for Derek Jeter and the rest of the players.

The Yankees enter this season younger, more athletic, deeper and with fewer questions than they had at any point last season, including Game 6 of the World Series.

Cashman, while staying off a weak free agent market, nonetheless had a very busy winter reconstructing and improving the roster.

Gone as free agents are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, who played key roles in winning last season's titles, but whose age and injury troubles were starting to make them liabilities.

Could Damon and and Matsui have helped this year? If they stayed healthy, yes. But that's a big if. And in the long run, its the right move. There's an axiom in baseball that it's better to get rid of a player a year too early, than a year too late. This was the right time to move on.

To replace them, the Cashman brought in Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson, two players who will come close to replacing Damon's and Matsui's offense, while Granderson will significantly upgrade the outfield defense. No longer do we have to be concerned about Damon's pop-gun arm and declining ability to chase down fly balls.

And even though the Yankees will be starting light-hitting Brett Gardner in left, they have more than enough firepower to cover for that deficiency. Remember, the Yankees actually won a championship with Chad Curtis in left.

Cashman also found some much needed depth for the starting rotation. Throughout the playoffs, the Yankees went with three starters, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, and survived, thanks in part to an ALCS schedule that provided an extra day off between Games 4 and 5 and weather that threatened to rain out several games, but held off.

The reality is Girardi had no choice. Joba Chamberlain was never going to available to start in the playoffs, no matter how foolishly the Yankees tried. And the Yankees didn't give Chad Gaudin consistent enough work to make him a viable starting option.

But the Yankees shouldn't have to worry about that now. Cashman gave up Melky Cabera -- a solid and clutch contributor -- to bring in Javier Vazquez, who has pitched more than 200 innings in nine of the last 10 season, falling just short in his previous stint with the Yankees in 1994, when a sore pitching arm hampered him in the second half and playoffs.

Dave and other Sox fans can point to Vazquez's 2-7 career record with a 4.23 ERA against the Sox and snicker, but if last year taught us anything, it's not to get too hung up on past performance.

Remember, Sabathia couldn't beat the Sox or win in the postseason. Burnett also was supposed to be a Red Sox killer. Neither was the case last season.

Vazquez gives the Yankees another veteran arm and strikeout pitcher, who will give the team a strong chance to win every fifth day against every opponent.

Meanwhile, the Yankees' biggest weakness at the start of last season has become one of its biggest strengths. The bullpen is deep, defined and balanced with Mariano Rivera, of course, anchoring the closer role and Joba Chamberlain set to reprise the eighth-inning role that made him a rock star when he burst onto the scene in 2007. In addition, David Robertson has become a reliable and versatile middle reliever with Alfredo Aceves a weapon as a long reliever. Damaso Marte showed what he can as the left-handed specialist during the playoffs.

That leaves the Yankees with just two questions: Can they avoid injuries and will they catch enough breaks?

The reality is every team -- no matter how young the roster -- faces those questions and no one can answer them. The season just has to play out.

But we know this, the Yankees' rivals have many more questions to answer this season. Unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox have to be wondering if they have enough offense and power after an offseason devoted to improving their pitching and defense, while allowing arguably their best power hitter in Jason Bay to leave via free agency.

And the Rays, while young, athletic, talented and hungry after missing out on the playoffs last season, still have questions to answer about their bullpen, albeit improved, and a rotation that lacks a proven ace.

So as we sit here at the start of a new season, I predict the Yankees will once again win the AL East and capture World Championship No. 28. And really? Is that any sort of a surprise? I think not.

Here's the surprise, the Rays will win the wild card and reach the ALCS (I picked the Sox to take the wild card last year). The Red Sox's lack of power will prove too be a bigger problem than Theo Epstein, Terry Francona and Co. are expecting. And any deadline deal will prove to be too little, too late.

Now let's play ball.

Five Predictions For Boston's Pitching

With pitchers and catchers on the cusp of reporting to sunny Florida, it's time to start thinking about 2010. In particular, about what will happen with the Sox this year. Ideally, it ends with Boston hoisting their third title in seven years with their foot firmly planted on New York's collective trachea.

That remains to be seen. But here are five things I think will happen with Boston's pitching staff this year.

1. Jon Lester emerges as the staff ace. Some people would argue this happened last year. But what made 2009 a great year for Lester is that he avoided "The Verducci Effect." SI's premier baseball writer, as most of you know, compiled a ton of data that showed the following (from BaseballProspectus.com):

...pitchers under the age of 25 who have 30-inning increases year over year tend to underperform. Will Carroll independently found that pitchers who break the "Rule of 30" tend to get injured. Carroll renamed this 'rule' the Verducci Effect in honor of the man who initially found the evidence.

Lester threw 63 innings in 2007 and 210.1 innings in 2008. According to the Verducci Effect, Lester should have fallen off noticeably in 2009.

Here are Lester's 2008 numbers: 16-6 | 210.1 IP | 3.21 ERA | 152 K | 66 BB | 202 H | 1.27 WHIP

Here are Lester's 2009 numbers: 15-8 | 203.1 IP | 3.41 ERA | 225 K | 64 BB | 186 H | 1.23 WHIP

In short, Lester essentially maintained his level of production and improved in one critical area: strikeouts. He threw seven less innings and registered 73 more strikeouts, which speaks to improved control and strength even in the later innings of his outings. You could argue Lester is the best left-handed starter in the majors under the age of 28, and one of the top 5 overall. This is the year he establishes himself as Boston's premier starter.

2. Clay Buchholz breaks double-digit wins. This isn't exactly a risky prediction. After spending the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009 in the minors, Clay apparently figured out how to pitch again. He went 7-4 in 16 starts with a 4.21 ERA (ERA+ 111) and pitched well in his post-season appearance. There is a big question about whether he will ever be a front-of-the-rotation pitcher or if a #4 is where he settles. But considering Buchholz feasted on the AL East (sans New York) and AL Central, there is no reason he can't get at least 10 wins in 2010.

3. Matsuzaka returns to his 2008 form. Honor and "face" are a big deal in Japanese culture. And in every respect, Daisuke Matsuzaka embarrassed himself in the first half of 2009. Quarrelsome, out-of-shape and pitching like Carlos Silva after a four-day bender, Matsuzaka looked like he wanted out of Boston. And management looked ready to help him along.

Then cooler heads prevailed, Daisuke realized he was acting like a class-A jerk and started to straighten himself out. The result was a solid September where he went 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA. His only loss was a 3-0 defeat in the Bronx, and he pitched well in it (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H)

So yes, Daisuke will always be a pitcher who walks a ton of batters and puts runners on base. He's also a pitcher who can get out of those jams. Deride that 2008 season all you want. The bottom line is that you don't run up an 18-3 record with a 2.90 ERA on blind luck. And while that won't happen in 2010, with Boston's superior defense the idea of Daisuke going 16-9 with a 3.50 ERA is not out of line.

4. Papelbon pitches his last year in Boston. Papelbon is one of the best relievers in the majors. He has gone to four straight All-Star games. Last year he posted a 1.85 ERA and saved 38 games, becoming the first pitcher to ever record 35+ saves in his first four years in the majors*.

Papelbon also posted a career high in WHIP (1.147), walks (24 - three times as many as he had in 2008) and homers (5). His strikeouts declined for the third straight year and he collapsed in the post-season.

It is undeniable that Paps is one of the best closers in the game and the best one the Sox have ever had. It is also undeniable that Boston's brass considers signing Papelbon to a long-term deal slightly less palatable than catching the Ebola virus. He becomes a free agent after the 2011 season. And Boston has his successor in young fireballer Daniel Bard. So when is Papelbon's value the highest? After the 2010 season.

Papelbon will not sign a long-term deal. So holding him into the 2011 season results in diminishing returns for the Sox. But trading him between the 2010 and 2011 seasons, giving their potential partner a full year of his services, maximizes Papelbon's value. And a top-flight closer is worth their weight in gold on the trade block. This also gives the Sox another year to let Bard settle down and prove he can close big games in the majors.

I'm not saying I want this to happen. But Theo isn't one to let a valuable player simple walk without getting anything back. Yes, there would be draft picks if Paps made it to market after 2011. But wouldn't you rather have some proven prospects/players instead of unknown picks, if you could get them? So would Theo.

5. Boston has three starters with 15+ wins. If this happened, it would be the first time for Boston since 2007. That year Beckett went 20-7, Wakes was 17-12, Daisuke posted a 15-12 record and the Sox won the World Series. The time before that was 1998. That year Pedro went 19-7, Saberhagen found his youth with a 15-8 record and Wakefield rolled to a 17-8 season.** So it isn't easy. But in Lester, Beckett and Lackey the Sox have three #1 pitchers who can definitely put up 15+ wins. If Daisuke returns to form, the Sox could possibly have four pitchers with 15+ wins. The last time that happened in Boston? 1916:

Babe Ruth: 23-12
Dutch Leonard: 18-12
Carl Mays: 18-13
Ernie Shore: 16-10

This is also the answer to the question "Can you name four guys Harry Frazee handed to the Yankees for next-to-nothing?"*** And in case you were curious, in 1915 the Sox had all five starters post 15+ wins. But post-1920s, the closest the Sox have come to four starters with 15+ wins was 1975. Rick Wise, Bill Lee and Luis Tiant all had 17+ wins while Roger Moret went 14-3.

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* Aviv, please don't start this argument up again. Let's just acknowledge this is the case and move on. I didn't even mention The Goose. Until now.

** How awesome is it that Wakefield was on both staffs? This is why he is one of my all-time favorites: longevity combined with solid contributions.

*** Little-known fact: Frazee was un-officially limited to dealing Ruth to either the Yankees or the White Sox (he was butting heads with the Commissioner at the time). The White Sox offered Boston 60K and Shoeless Joe Jackson. Of course, Frazee took the hundred grand from the Yankees. And while Jackson would have still been banned after the 1920 season, the Sox would have gotten one hellacious season out of him (12 HR, 121 RBI, .382 BA, 1.033 OPS). Instead, Boston's third outfielder (after Harry Hooper and Ruth) was the immortal Braggo Roth. How many wins would Jackson have been worth? Would he have been suspended for life if he was on a different team in 1920? Who knows, but I'd take that one assured season of greatness over an extra 40K if I was the owner.