Yankees: Heroes and Zeros

I did this earlier for the Red Sox. In that case, it was about finding the bright spots in a season that resulted in yet-another last place finish. In this case, with the Yankees, it's more about digging for the disappointments.

Make no mistake; this Yankee team over-performed relative to just about everybody's expectations. There were plenty of die-hard Yankee fans who looked at this team and thought third place would be doing well. But on the back of their most devastating late-game pitching duo since the late 90s and some productive years from aging veterans, the Yankees made it into the wild-card playoff game. And that is after leading the AL East for the majority of the season. All stats are courtesy of Fangraphs.

Heroes:

Didi Gregorius

Projected: 495 Plate Appearances | 132 H | 9 HR | 48 RBI | 35 BB | 95 K | .251 BA | .307 OBP | .369 SLG | .676 OPS | 1.8 WAR

Actual: 578 Plate Appearances | 139 H | 9 HR | 56 RBI | 33 BB | 85 K | .265 BA | .318 OBP | .370 SLG | .688 OPS | 3.1 WAR



Mark Teixeira

Projected: 377 Plate Appearances | 77 H | 17 HR | 65 RBI | 41 BB | 73 K | .236 BA | .326 OBP | .433 SLG | .759 OPS | 1.5 WAR

Actual: 462 Plate Appearances | 100 H | 31 HR | 79 RBI | 59 BB | 85 K | .255 BA | .357 OBP | .548 SLG | .906 OPS | 2.9 WAR



Alex Rodriguez

Projected: 407 Plate Appearances | 82 H | 15 HR | 57 RBI | 40 BB | 99 K | .229 BA | .312 OBP | .399 SLG | .711 OPS | 1.3 WAR

Actual: 620 Plate Appearances | 131 H | 33 HR | 86 RBI | 84 BB | 145 K | .250 BA | .356 OBP | .486 SLG | .842 OPS | 2.7 WAR



Dellin Betances

Projected: 4-1 | 2.39 ERA | 66 Game Appearances | 82.7 IP | 116 K | 33 W | 1.10 WHIP | 1.5 WAR

Actual: 6-4 | 1.50 ERA | 74 Game Appearances | 84.0 IP | 131 K | 40 W | 1.01 WHIP | 2.4 WAR



Andrew Miller

Projected: 5-2 | 2.59 ERA | 58 Game Appearances | 48.7 IP | 76 K | 21 W | 1.11 WHIP | 0.7 WAR

Actual: 3-2 | 1.90 ERA | 60 Game Appearances | 61.2 IP | 100 K | 20 W | 0.86 WHIP | 36 SV | 2.0 WAR



Nathan Eovaldi

Projected: 8-9 | 4.51 ERA | 28 Games Started | 159.7 IP | 121 K | 48 W | 1.37 WHIP | 1.6 WAR

Actual: 14-3 | 4.20 ERA | 27 Game Started | 154.1 IP | 121 K | 49 W | 1.45 WHIP | 3.2 WAR



As big a surprise as A-Rod was this year, I was blown away by what Didi Gregorius did for the Yankees. Viewed as placefiller for the retired Jeter, nobody was expecting much from Didi. The idea was his glove would be a little better but his bat would be worse. It would, in essence, be a wash.

So here's a stat to tell you what actually happened: Didi's 3.1 WAR is the highest for a Yankee starting shortstop since 2009. He performed so far above and beyond expectations that he is, to me, the MVP of the team. He is only 25 years old and all he cost the Yankees in trade is Shane Greene. Without a doubt, this is one of Brian Cashman's best deals in his career.

At the other end of the "unexpected production" scale are Teixeira and A-Rod. Both aging veterans, both with declining numbers, one injury-prone and the other coming off a year-long suspension...the expectation was that they would be average at best, being paid way too much for their production.

And while they may still be overpaid, they also both pretty much doubled their expected WAR. Even playing only 111 games, Teixeira gave the Yankees a year's worth of production. And Rodriguez may have unintentionally shown all of baseball that giving an aging superstar a year off to rest could be beneficial. All his PED baggage aside, he was solid this year and is one of the big reasons the Yankees even had a chance to make it into the ALDS.

But the main reason the Yankees made it that far was their 1-2 pitching punch at the end of the game. Betances and Miller reminded me a lot of the '96 Yankees with Mariano Rivera setting up John Wetteland. If the Yankees carried a lead into the eighth inning, or were even tied or just a run behind, they knew they had a good chance of winning with Betances and Miller pitching. That kind of support on the mound makes a good team better. And while they faded late in the season, there is no reason to doubt if they can do it again next year.

Unzipping 2015: Comparing Boston and New York - Third Base

This off-season the Red Sox made a big splash signing two of the biggest free-agent bats in Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval, in particular, was a necessary investment. Third base became a black hole for Boston in 2014. Will Middlebrooks' future in Boston died there and Xander Bogaerts proved by playing at third that shortstop was where he belonged. Sandoval solved that problem with one stroke of the pen.

Meanwhile, the Yankees brought back Chase Headley, whom they had traded for in 2014. He quietly signed a four-year, $52M deal and brought some stability to the position.

Now, the causal first-glance consensus may be that Boston has the stronger player at third. After all, they signed the third baseman from the defending MLB champions. And the Yankees have someone you may have never heard of before. But you may want to sit down if that's what you've been thinking.

Boston: Pablo Sandoval

2015: 144 G | 150 H | 83 RBI | .279 BA | .328 OBP | .454 SLG | .782 OPS | 3.1 WAR | Cost per WAR: $5,677,419 | Age: 28

New York: Chase Headley

2015: 139 G | 127 H | 73 RBI | .253 BA | .340 OBP | .427 SLG | .767 OPS | 4.1 WAR | Cost per WAR: $3,170,731 | Age: 31

That's not a misprint. Headley is giving the Yankees one more full win at third while costing about $2.5M less per win than Sandoval.

There are a couple of reasons for this. First is that Headley is slightly better in the field that Sandoval. And while that isn't shown in my admittedly-abbreviated line above, it affects overall WAR. Second, Headley is also projected to be slightly better than Sandoval in runs scored and home runs. Add all that together and you can see where he can rightly be projected to add one win more than Sandoval.

Things get even more interesting if you look at averages over the past few years

2010-14: Pablo Sandoval yearly average

2015: 135 G | 141 H | 70 RBI | 59 R | .283 BA | .778 OPS | 119 OPS+ | 3.2 WAR |

2010-14: Chase Headley yearly average

2015: 142 G | 138 H | 63 RBI | 66 R | .266 BA | .762 OPS | 117 OPS+ | 4.0 WAR |

Again, very similar lines. And while Sandoval looks like the stronger hitter, he has less WAR. Why? Fielding. Sandoval actually had a negative defense-only WAR in both 2012 and 2013. Headley has never had that problem.

None of this is meant to imply that Boston's signing of Sandoval was a bad idea. He is a massive upgrade over the debacle that existed at third in 2014. But sometimes the quieter signings can be just as effective as the ones that grab all the headlines. If not a little more so. And credit must be given to Brian Cashman for not only trading for Headley last year, but re-signing him in the off-season.* How that Cashman co-exists with the Cashman that gave $5M to Stephen Drew is beyond me.

If Boston has one advantage in this match-up it would be that Sandoval is only 28 while Headley will be 31 in May. Age matters and Sandoval is in his prime while Headley is at the end of his. But trying to predict anything based on age alone is idiocy.

But for now, the Yankees have a cost-effective solid third baseman that is just a little better overall that Boston's trumpeted free-agent signing.

---------------------

*Also, it's a little amusing that both Middlebrooks and Yangeris Solarte (the player of note that Cashman traded to San Diego for Headley) are competing for the same position in SD this spring.