Heroes and Zeros: Red Sox

For finishing in last for the 3rd out of four years, there is a lot of positive momentum in the Boston franchise going into the off-season. With a young outfield clicking on all cylinders, a start shortstop in the making, a young catcher breaking out and a couple of bright spots on the mound, there is reason to believe that Boston can be a contender in 2016 with a couple of key moves.

But Boston being in last this year is also the function of a horrendous start and the failure of some key free agents. So let's look at projections from April and where some of the players ended up (all stats courtesy of Fangraphs) at season's end.

Heroes:

Mookie Betts

Projected: 582 Plate Appearances | 148 H | 13 HR | 80 RBI | 50 BB | 73 K | .289 BA | .350 OBP | .428 SLG | .779 OPS | 3.6 WAR

Actual: 654 Plate Appearances | 174 H | 18 HR | 77 RBI | 46 BB | 82 K | .291 BA | .341 OBP | .479 SLG | .820 OPS | 4.8 WAR



Jackie Bradley, Jr.

Projected: 116 Plate Appearances | 24 H | 2 HR | 11 RBI | 9 BB | 28 K | .234 BA | .302 OBP | .349 SLG | .650 OPS | 0.4 WAR

Actual: 255 Plate Appearances | 55 H | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 27 BB | 69 K | .249 BA | .335 OBP | .498 SLG | .833 OPS | 2.5 WAR



Xander Bogaerts

Projected: 552 Plate Appearances | 130 H | 16 HR | 63 RBI | 41 BB | 114 K | .260 BA | .320 OBP | .416 SLG | .736 OPS | 2.3 WAR

Actual: 654 Plate Appearances | 196 H | 7 HR | 84 RBI | 32 BB | 101 K | .320 BA | .355 OBP | .421 SLG | .776 OPS | 4.3 WAR



Blake Swihart

Projected: 92 Plate Appearances | 21 H | 2 HR | 10 RBI | 5 BB | 17 K | .245 BA | .288 OBP | .365 SLG | .653 OPS | 0.3 WAR

Actual: 309 Plate Appearances | 79 H | 5 HR | 31 RBI | 18 BB | 77 K | .274 BA | .319 OBP | .392 SLG | .711 OPS | 1.5 WAR



David Ortiz

Projected: 526 Plate Appearances | 126 H | 23 HR | 78 RBI | 62 BB | 88 K | .277 BA | .364 OBP | .492 SLG | .856 OPS | 1.8 WAR

Actual: 614 Plate Appearances | 79 H | 37 HR | 108 RBI | 77 BB | 95 K | .273 BA | .360 OBP | .553 SLG | .913 OPS | 2.8 WAR



Wade Miley

Projected: 11-10 | 4.16 ERA | 29 Games Started | 176 IP | 137 K | 59 W | 1.35 WHIP | 1.3 WAR

Actual: 11-11 | 4.46 ERA | 32 Games Started | 193.2 IP | 147 K | 64 W | 1.37 WHIP | 2.6 WAR



Eduardo Rodriguez

Projected: 1-1 | 4.41 ERA | 3 Games Started | 18 IP | 13 K | 7 W | 1.40 WHIP | 0.1 WAR

Actual: 10-6 | 3.85 ERA | 21 Games Started | 121.2 IP | 98 K | 37 W | 1.29 WHIP | 1.7 WAR

If you were alive in the mid to late 70s and a Sox fan, then you know who the "Gold Dust Twins" were. Fred Lynn and Jim Rice came into the majors at the same time in 1975. Lynn won the MVP and Rookie of the Year award that year while Rice was RoY runner-up. From 1975-1980 they were one of the most potent 1-2 outfield combos in the game. Then the Sox traded Lynn to the Angels for Jim Dorsey, Joe Rudi and Frank Tanana rather than pay him what he was worth (and screwing up his contract extension going into free agency). And the Gold Dust Twins were no more.

Betts and Bradley, Jr. are not the Gold Dust Twins, even though I think Betts definitely has it in him to reach Fred Lynn numbers on a yearly basis. But this a young duo that gives the Sox some of the best outfield defense in the majors. And with Bradley now hitting major league pitching successfully, the expectation is going to be seeing these two gentlemen make more than a few All-Star games, with Betts even pushing for MVP a couple of years down the line. Yeah, he's that good.

One guy who might keep Betts from winning an MVP is his teammate at shortstop. In 2015 Xander Bogaerts finally grew into the expectations everyone had set for him. He saw a quantum leap in his offensive numbers in 2015 and was arguably the best overall shortstop in the AL this year. His line this year might even garner him a few goodwill votes for MVP seeing as he kept Boston from completely sucking this year and as a makeup for keeping him off the All-Star team.

Freefall

So the Sox had their game rained out against the Twins yesterday. Which was the second-best result they saw all week.

I have advocated all year against blind panic. Against knee-jerk moves. Against declaring the whole season a bust based on a small amount of time.

But now we are in June. And Boston is in last place. They are 22-29 with a run differential of -48 (almost a run per game). Yes, they are only 4.5 games out of first. But that has everything to do with the relative mediocrity of the AL East and nothing to do with Boston's quality of play.

In a mostly-disappointing season, the only constant was Boston's defense. It was always in the top third league-wide. Today it is firmly in the middle of the pack. That downturn has added to the misery in Boston. Now, in all facets, Boston as a team is at best middling. At worst (as with their pitching) they are near the bottom. As of today, this team is on pace to be worse than the 2012 Red Sox. That team was the worst Boston put on the field since the mid-1960s.

The defense that was their strength? As of today there are exactly two Boston starters who rank in the top half for their position defensively (among qualified starters). That would be Mookie Betts in center and Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. Everyone else is dragging near the bottom.

And yes, that includes Dustin Pedroia. Boston's perennial Gold Glove second baseman is have a very bad year so far in the field. His fielding percentage is well below the league average. While that is due in part to his ability to get to more baseballs (his Range Factor is 4th at his position in the AL) he isn't making the plays he used to make on those balls. His five errors are the worst for a second baseman in the AL. He had two in all of 2014, five total in both 2012 and 2013. While his bat is still producing, his glove has now tailed off a little.

That is still leagues above Hanley Ramirez, who hasn't seen a fly ball yet that he won't pull up on. His Range Factor is 1.54, dead last for qualifying left fielders in the AL. That means he isn't reaching balls hit his way. His fielding percentage of .968 is also dead last. Which means that when he reaches a ball, he still isn't all that good on defense. His defensive WAR? -1.4, which is really, really bad. And negates anything positive he has done at the plate.

Pablo Sandoval? Only Manny Machado and Chase Headley are worse at third by fielding percentage. Sandoval's Range Factor of 2.30 is second-worst in the AL at third, beating out only David Freese on the Angels. Sandoval has never been a Gold Glove at third, but 2015 is rivaling some of his worst numbers ever.

Sox Start to Turn Around, Yanks Continue to Win

Boston beat Oakland last night 5-4 in eleven innings to register their first back-to-back wins since April 20-21. It definitely wasn't easy. Once again, the Boston starter (Porcello this time) failed to make it at least six innings. The bullpen was heavily leaned upon. But this time, the Sox had a fresh arm in Matt Barnes.

Barnes made a handful of appearances last year in September call-ups and this was just his third appearance in 2015. But he has impressed, with just one earned run in 5.1 innings of work. Last night, his two scoreless innings of relief gave Boston the space they needed to manufacture that fifth run and get the win.

As a Boston fan, the Barnes outing is encouraging as he is the first of the highly touted young arms in the system to make an appearance in 2015. I also think he isn't going back; as of right now he is one of the most effective relief pitchers Boston has had in 2015.

Pablo Sandoval continues to prove that his signing was a good move. He only got one hit last night but it was a solo homer that gave Boston their 5-4 lead. For the year he has an .820 OPS, trailing only Hanley Ramirez on the Boston roster.

Porcello had a tough outing; his five innings of work marked his shortest appearance in almost a month. The notable difference, however, is that in that April game he gave up eight runs on 12 hits. Last night he only gave up three runs on nine hits. Not great, but even while Porcello struggled on the mound he left Boston in a position where they could still win the game. That's an important difference.

Over these past two games, the Sox seem to be scrapping more, fighting to win. That's a good quality and hopefully these two wins will keep that attitude going.

Then you have the Yankees. As a Boston fan, I want them to go 0-162 every year. But as a baseball fan, I am fascinated to see how long they can keep this going.

Unzipping 2015: Comparing Boston and New York - Third Base

This off-season the Red Sox made a big splash signing two of the biggest free-agent bats in Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval, in particular, was a necessary investment. Third base became a black hole for Boston in 2014. Will Middlebrooks' future in Boston died there and Xander Bogaerts proved by playing at third that shortstop was where he belonged. Sandoval solved that problem with one stroke of the pen.

Meanwhile, the Yankees brought back Chase Headley, whom they had traded for in 2014. He quietly signed a four-year, $52M deal and brought some stability to the position.

Now, the causal first-glance consensus may be that Boston has the stronger player at third. After all, they signed the third baseman from the defending MLB champions. And the Yankees have someone you may have never heard of before. But you may want to sit down if that's what you've been thinking.

Boston: Pablo Sandoval

2015: 144 G | 150 H | 83 RBI | .279 BA | .328 OBP | .454 SLG | .782 OPS | 3.1 WAR | Cost per WAR: $5,677,419 | Age: 28

New York: Chase Headley

2015: 139 G | 127 H | 73 RBI | .253 BA | .340 OBP | .427 SLG | .767 OPS | 4.1 WAR | Cost per WAR: $3,170,731 | Age: 31

That's not a misprint. Headley is giving the Yankees one more full win at third while costing about $2.5M less per win than Sandoval.

There are a couple of reasons for this. First is that Headley is slightly better in the field that Sandoval. And while that isn't shown in my admittedly-abbreviated line above, it affects overall WAR. Second, Headley is also projected to be slightly better than Sandoval in runs scored and home runs. Add all that together and you can see where he can rightly be projected to add one win more than Sandoval.

Things get even more interesting if you look at averages over the past few years

2010-14: Pablo Sandoval yearly average

2015: 135 G | 141 H | 70 RBI | 59 R | .283 BA | .778 OPS | 119 OPS+ | 3.2 WAR |

2010-14: Chase Headley yearly average

2015: 142 G | 138 H | 63 RBI | 66 R | .266 BA | .762 OPS | 117 OPS+ | 4.0 WAR |

Again, very similar lines. And while Sandoval looks like the stronger hitter, he has less WAR. Why? Fielding. Sandoval actually had a negative defense-only WAR in both 2012 and 2013. Headley has never had that problem.

None of this is meant to imply that Boston's signing of Sandoval was a bad idea. He is a massive upgrade over the debacle that existed at third in 2014. But sometimes the quieter signings can be just as effective as the ones that grab all the headlines. If not a little more so. And credit must be given to Brian Cashman for not only trading for Headley last year, but re-signing him in the off-season.* How that Cashman co-exists with the Cashman that gave $5M to Stephen Drew is beyond me.

If Boston has one advantage in this match-up it would be that Sandoval is only 28 while Headley will be 31 in May. Age matters and Sandoval is in his prime while Headley is at the end of his. But trying to predict anything based on age alone is idiocy.

But for now, the Yankees have a cost-effective solid third baseman that is just a little better overall that Boston's trumpeted free-agent signing.

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*Also, it's a little amusing that both Middlebrooks and Yangeris Solarte (the player of note that Cashman traded to San Diego for Headley) are competing for the same position in SD this spring.

Red Sox = Yankees? Not Exactly.

With the soon-to-be official mega-dollar signing of Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada, by my estimation the Sox have spent upwards of eleventy billion dollars this off-season.

Well, maybe not that much. But in committing over $60M to Moncada, $95M to Pablo Sandoval and $88M to Hanley Ramirez, that over $240M in commitments to just three players in this off-season. Throw in the pitching acquisitions and other players, and Boston has spent over $300M in total player-committed dollars this off-season.

And so yesterday, someone asked Boston CEO Larry "Can we forget about Bobby Valentine" Lucchino an obvious question: Are the Red Sox the same as the New York Yankees?

"It's a question of pattern and consistency over time -- that's one way to distinguish. But we're not going to not avail ourselves of what we think is a very good baseball opportunity because someone is going to compare us to the Yankees," Lucchino said.

The piece quotes Lucchino a few more times but the upshot is basically this: The Red Sox will spend money when they think they need to. And they do in a smarter fashion than the Yankees.

That's an important qualifier. Spending 20 bucks, say, on vegetables and healthy food for your family is smarter spending than buying them 20 bucks of Funyons. Same money, different quality.

Boston spent big money on Sandoval and Ramirez. But those are also manageable contracts. Ramirez is for four years and a possible fifth. Sandoval is for five years and a club option on a sixth.

Compare that to the two free-agent signings the Yankees made before 2014. They spent $85M on a 30-year-old catcher in Brian McCann, who went on to have one of the worst statistical years of his career. And then there was Jacoby Ellsbury. Seven years, $153M, and the reward was a decidedly average 2014 campaign. Fun fact: Brett Gardner, who cost about 1/4 of Ellsbury and was already a Yankee, had a better 2014. Hell, you could argue that Francisco Cervelli wasn't that far off of McCann.

And that is the big difference here. The Yankees brought in two big-dollar free-agent signings for positions where they already had a player either giving them most of what they got (Cervelli and McCann) or possibly more (Gardner and Ellsbury).