Thoughts on the 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot Results

So another HOF ballot is in the books and, like most years, there were some obvious outcomes and some that weren't expected.

I think everyone is pleased that, unlike last year, some people were actually voted into the Hall. But some of the outcomes were really surprising and/or disappointing.

The most disappointing result, to me, was Greg Maddux only getting 97.2% of the vote. There are many, many players where we can debate if they are or aren't HOF-worthy. Heck, I wish the Veterans Committee would have that debate about Dwight Evans, who absolutely deserves to be in Cooperstown.

But there is no debate about Maddux. 355 wins, a lifetime ERA of 3.16 and four Cy Young Awards in four consecutive years. His career pitching WAR of 104.6 is eighth all-time, beating legends like Mathewson, Spahn, Carlton, Ryan and Gibson. His 3,371 strikeouts are 10th all-time. And his lifetime JAWS score of 81.6 is 10th all-time for starting pitchers. There no legitimate reason, none, to deny Maddux the vote.

And yet Maddux wasn't unanimous. One voter, Ken Gurnick, explained he refuses to vote for anyone from the "Steroid Era". This despite the fact that if you look at Maddux's numbers, they are consistent in his prime and degrade at the rate one would expect from a player as he ages. As opposed to, say, Roger Clemens, who had two of his best statistical seasons at ages 38 and 41.

Maddux not being a unanimous inductee is a travesty, but at least he got in.

Glavine and Thomas as first-ballot inductees is right on the money. Glavine, like Maddux, has the kind of peak and decline you expect to see in a talented pitcher. Thomas had his best years before the age of 32, which makes sense as those are the peak years for an athlete. And his decline after that made sense: after 32 he never hit over .300 again and never had an OPS over 1.000.

Glavine and Thomas also had what I like to call the "last hurrah" season. As a player ages, their performance declines. But in that decline there is usually one last season that recaptures a piece of their younger self. And then the decline continues.

For Glavine, that year was 2006. He was 40, went 15-7 with a 3.82 ERA, struck out 131 batters and a 1.333 WHIP. For Thomas, it happened at age 38 in 2006. He had a .926 OPS, hit 39 HR with 114 RBI, cranked out 147 hits and had a 3.2 WAR. That was the only time he cracked 3.0 WAR or higher over the last five years of his career.

It's interesting to see that season occur in the careers of many Hall of Fame inductees or HOF-caliber players. Hank Aaron in 1973 at age 39. Willie Mays in 1971 at age 40. Frank Robinson in 1973 at age 37. Yaz at age 40 in 1980. Dave Winfield and his ridiculous 1990 season with the Jays at age 40. Catfish Hunter going 12-6 in 1978, his next-to-last year in his career. Randy Johnson, a mortal lock for the Hall next year (except on Gurnick's ballot, apparently) going 11-10 at age 44 in 2008 with a 3.2 WAR.

Barry Bonds and the Hall of Fame

Here's something about me you may not know: I have littered the blogosphere with flaming wreckage left and right. I have discarded blogs out there the way Shawn Kemp has illegitimate children. This one right here is the longest one I have ever kept at one...and we took a three-year hiatus.

I bring this up because of the Hall of Fame voting, which we will find out the results of on Wednesday. On that ballot is one Barry Lamar Bonds, who cheated his way to numerous records. So way, way, way back in 2005, when Game of Shadows came out, I considered whether or not his achievements prior to his juicing should still allow him into the Hall. So what is below is what I wrote in 2005.

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It's pure insanity that it took this book to force baseball to undertake an investigation into who used steroids in baseball. But why should we be surprised? The owners and management of MLB turned a blind eye to the increasing use of PEDs, reveling in the increased home run totals and matching gate receipts. Meanwhile, the players swelled to Michelin Man proportions.

And none more than Barry Bonds

When Barry broke upon the scene in 1986, he was a recognized five-tool player. A star in the making. And he fulfilled that promise. Between 1986 and 1998, Bonds was a 8-time All-Star. A three-time MVP. Eight Gold Gloves.

But that wasn't enough. In the late 90s he saw sluggers like McGwire and Sosa capturing the eyes of America while he, the complete player, was left to the side. So he decided to do something about it. And that something was steroids and the rest.

And it was so obvious. So I compiled some numbers.

When Barry Bonds denies using PEDs, you have to look beyond his slowly expanding head. You have to look at the stats. And when you do, you see a very interesting pattern.

As some background, remember that Bonds entered the National League in 1986. He will be 41 on July 24, 2005.

Here are the five best years for Barry Bonds' career in OPS, AVG and HRs:

* OPS: 2004, 2002, 2001, 2003, 2000

AVG: 2002, 2004, 2003, 1993, 2001

* HRs: 2001, 2000, 2002 and 1993, 2003 and 2004

You'll notice that in each category, all the years are post-1999 with the exception of 1993 in both AVG and HRs. 1993 is the last year Bonds won the National League MVP before his streak of four straight MVP awards began in 2001.

So Bonds' best years have all occurred after the age of 36, with the exception of 1993. And his overall best year was 2002, when he was 38 years old.

If you look at his career stats, the improvement after 1999 is shocking. And completely at odds with the basic way human biology works. It makes no logical sense that Bonds should improve yearly starting in his late 30s. And increasingly so. You could easily make the argument his second best year was 2004.

So his two best years in his 18-year career were when he was 38 and 40?? Only if he was juicing, because the human male doesn't age that way.

It was 1999 when he started using PEDs. That year was cut short after 102 games because of an elbow injury he blamed on the steroids. But when he adjusted his schedule for the 2000 season...well, we know what happened.

And is it that surprising that five years later, injuries cost him most of a season? Or that his head grew in size, which shouldn't happen in the normal course of events

Let's be blunt - batters don't get better as they get older. There is some statistical evidence that pitchers can maintain quality into their 40s. But not batters.

Compare Barry's increasing stats with the last full year of another great Giant, one Willie Mays.

In 1971, at the age of 40, Mays played 136 games. His batting average was 32 points below his career average. He struck out 123 times, the highest one-year total in his career. He had 201 total bases, the lowest total in his career when he player 120 games or more. He hit only 18 home runs, again the lowest total for Mays when he played 120 games or more.

That is what happens to the great players as they age. They don't outslug and outhit players 10-15 years younger than them. It just doesn't happen.

Let's take another great player, the legendary Hank Aaron. He played three seasons where he was 40 or older. Those three seasons his home run totals were the three lowest in his career. His batting averages were the three lowest in his career. And that shouldn't be surprising. That is the normal progression of aging.

So when Bonds so blatantly flaunts that progression, it shouldn't take years, two books, a Congressional hearing and grand jury testimony to finally do something about it.

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Heads aren't supposed to grow like this.

So yeah, the guy cheated. Anything after 1998 is ridiculously suspect. But here's the thing; if someone's career prior to that is still Hall of Fame caliber, should they get in?