Voting For the Hall of Fame

So the votes are in and we'll have two new members to the Hall of Fame this year. It's not surprising that Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey Jr. made the cut. Piazza was the best offensive catcher since Carter and Fisk hung up their cleats. And Junior is the best position player I have ever seen in my life. A defining moment of all the times I have been to Fenway Park will be when I saw Junior, on a dead run, make an over the shoulder catch at the Triangle in center field.

I was surprised others did not make it in. If I were a voter for the Hall (and I'm not), my ballot would have looked like this:

• Mike Piazza
• Ken Griffey Jr.
• Jeff Bagwell
• Trevor Hoffman
• Curt Schilling
• Mike Mussina
• Larry Walker

To me the other two no-brainers on that list are Jeff Bagwell and Trevor Hoffman. Bagwell was a monster at first base. Rookie of the Year in 1991. He won the MVP, albeit in the 1994 strike-shortened season. Of course, that same year he pulled off an amazing feat by averaging more than one RBI per game (116 in 110 games). His lifetime JAWS of 63.9 ranks 6th all-time for first basemen. Bagwell is 64th all-time in total WAR. Hoffman is one of only two closers to have 600+ saves (the other being Mariano Rivera). No one else even has 500 saves. A lifetime ERA of 2.87. Eighth all-time in WHIP (1.058). And you could make a strong argument that he should have won the 1998 NL Cy Young Award.

Then you have the ones that you have to argue for. Curt Schilling never won the Cy Young. But he came in second three times. He had two dominant years back-to-back in 2001-02. In both those years he was the Sporting News NL Pitcher of the Year. From 2001-04 his average was 18-7 with a 3.11 ERA (ERA+ 150)and 252 strikeouts. But his true value came in the post-season. In 12 series his record was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP. In the World Series those numbers were 4-1 | 2.06 ERA | 0.896 WHIP. His 80.7 WAR is 26th all-time for pitchers. His career WHIP of 1.127 is in the top 50 all-time. Most impressively, his K/BB ratio of 4.383 is second all-time, trailing only Tommy Bond, who pitched before there were airplanes.

Mike Mussina was in the top 6 of Cy Young voting in 9 of his 18 years. He registered 11+ wins per year for 17 straight years, only missing out in his rookie season. That alone is an amazing feat. He won seven Gold Gloves as a pitcher. 24th all-time in WAR for pitchers (82.7). 33rd all-time in wins with 270. 19th in strikeouts. One of only 12 pitchers to have a WAR higher than 80 with 270+ wins and 2800+ strikeouts. His consistency was probably why he wasn't appreciated more.

Larry Walker in his hey-day was a monster. If you look at his prime three years (1997-99) you see a dominant batter at the height of his powers. His average over those three years: .369 BA | 36 HR | 104 RBI | .451 OBP | 1.141 OPS. Throw in a MVP award in 1997 while you're at it. Seven Gold Gloves. .313 lifetime batting average. 15th all-time in OPS. His fielding percentage in right field (.986) is 30th all-time. He contributed at the plate and in the field.

So yeah, I am one of those guys who doesn't vote for Tim Raines because while he was good at a lot of things he was only great at stealing bases. I can't vote for Bonds or Clemens because of the PED issue, although I think they will get in before their 10 years are up. I feel bad for Alan Trammel; had he played 10 years later or if sabermetrics came along 10 years earlier I think he'd be in.

But I think this would be a ballot you could look at and defend. No glaring absences. None of that "No one should be a unanimous 1st year inductee" crap.

Thoughts on the 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot Results

So another HOF ballot is in the books and, like most years, there were some obvious outcomes and some that weren't expected.

I think everyone is pleased that, unlike last year, some people were actually voted into the Hall. But some of the outcomes were really surprising and/or disappointing.

The most disappointing result, to me, was Greg Maddux only getting 97.2% of the vote. There are many, many players where we can debate if they are or aren't HOF-worthy. Heck, I wish the Veterans Committee would have that debate about Dwight Evans, who absolutely deserves to be in Cooperstown.

But there is no debate about Maddux. 355 wins, a lifetime ERA of 3.16 and four Cy Young Awards in four consecutive years. His career pitching WAR of 104.6 is eighth all-time, beating legends like Mathewson, Spahn, Carlton, Ryan and Gibson. His 3,371 strikeouts are 10th all-time. And his lifetime JAWS score of 81.6 is 10th all-time for starting pitchers. There no legitimate reason, none, to deny Maddux the vote.

And yet Maddux wasn't unanimous. One voter, Ken Gurnick, explained he refuses to vote for anyone from the "Steroid Era". This despite the fact that if you look at Maddux's numbers, they are consistent in his prime and degrade at the rate one would expect from a player as he ages. As opposed to, say, Roger Clemens, who had two of his best statistical seasons at ages 38 and 41.

Maddux not being a unanimous inductee is a travesty, but at least he got in.

Glavine and Thomas as first-ballot inductees is right on the money. Glavine, like Maddux, has the kind of peak and decline you expect to see in a talented pitcher. Thomas had his best years before the age of 32, which makes sense as those are the peak years for an athlete. And his decline after that made sense: after 32 he never hit over .300 again and never had an OPS over 1.000.

Glavine and Thomas also had what I like to call the "last hurrah" season. As a player ages, their performance declines. But in that decline there is usually one last season that recaptures a piece of their younger self. And then the decline continues.

For Glavine, that year was 2006. He was 40, went 15-7 with a 3.82 ERA, struck out 131 batters and a 1.333 WHIP. For Thomas, it happened at age 38 in 2006. He had a .926 OPS, hit 39 HR with 114 RBI, cranked out 147 hits and had a 3.2 WAR. That was the only time he cracked 3.0 WAR or higher over the last five years of his career.

It's interesting to see that season occur in the careers of many Hall of Fame inductees or HOF-caliber players. Hank Aaron in 1973 at age 39. Willie Mays in 1971 at age 40. Frank Robinson in 1973 at age 37. Yaz at age 40 in 1980. Dave Winfield and his ridiculous 1990 season with the Jays at age 40. Catfish Hunter going 12-6 in 1978, his next-to-last year in his career. Randy Johnson, a mortal lock for the Hall next year (except on Gurnick's ballot, apparently) going 11-10 at age 44 in 2008 with a 3.2 WAR.

Schilling for the HOF?

This year's ballot for the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame is going to be crowded. There are three first-timers that are all but guaranteed admittance to the Hall:

• Greg Maddux
• Frank Thomas
• Tom Glavine

If any of those three men don't make it in the first ballot, it would make a mockery of the voting process. Two 300+ win pitchers and one of the greatest hitters in recent memory.

Then there are the guys who didn't make it in last year who should make it. Craig Biggio almost made it (68.2% of the vote last year). Jeff Bagwell has to be in there; even though suspicions of PED use exist he was never caught up in any scandal and never tested positive. Other players like Mike Piazza and Tim Raines will likely make it in at some point, if not this year.

And you have the guys coming to the end of their rope. The debate about whether Jack Morris is HOF-worthy has raged for years. Well, this is it unless the veterans put him on a future ballot. Mattingly is on his 14th ballot. My guess is neither of these guys make it in.

And let's not get started on the PED Brigade of Bonds, Clemens, Sosa and McGwire.

All this noise will likely keep two more deserving players out of the Hall for at least this year. Aviv rightly noted that Mike Mussina's numbers are good enough to make it. And I think it is worth noting that Curt Schilling should also be there at some point.

Last year Schilling received 38.8% on the ballot - a solid first year performance. And while that kind of base is no guarantee of entry (Lee Smith is still waiting on his 12th ballot), he should see that number go up.

Schilling does have a couple of things going against him. He never won a Cy Young award, despite finishing twice in the voting three times. He never had a sustained period of dominance over a number of years like Pedro did from 1997-2000, or Maddux's four straight (!) Cy Young wins from 1992-95. His 216 wins place him only 82nd on the all-time win list. And his .597 career win-loss percentage ranks him 128th all-time.

But that can be deceiving. His win percentage is still above Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan, amongst others. Those 216 wins still put him ahead of HOFers like Bob Lemon, Sandy Koufax and Dizzy Dean.