Voting For the Hall of Fame

So the votes are in and we'll have two new members to the Hall of Fame this year. It's not surprising that Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey Jr. made the cut. Piazza was the best offensive catcher since Carter and Fisk hung up their cleats. And Junior is the best position player I have ever seen in my life. A defining moment of all the times I have been to Fenway Park will be when I saw Junior, on a dead run, make an over the shoulder catch at the Triangle in center field.

I was surprised others did not make it in. If I were a voter for the Hall (and I'm not), my ballot would have looked like this:

• Mike Piazza
• Ken Griffey Jr.
• Jeff Bagwell
• Trevor Hoffman
• Curt Schilling
• Mike Mussina
• Larry Walker

To me the other two no-brainers on that list are Jeff Bagwell and Trevor Hoffman. Bagwell was a monster at first base. Rookie of the Year in 1991. He won the MVP, albeit in the 1994 strike-shortened season. Of course, that same year he pulled off an amazing feat by averaging more than one RBI per game (116 in 110 games). His lifetime JAWS of 63.9 ranks 6th all-time for first basemen. Bagwell is 64th all-time in total WAR. Hoffman is one of only two closers to have 600+ saves (the other being Mariano Rivera). No one else even has 500 saves. A lifetime ERA of 2.87. Eighth all-time in WHIP (1.058). And you could make a strong argument that he should have won the 1998 NL Cy Young Award.

Then you have the ones that you have to argue for. Curt Schilling never won the Cy Young. But he came in second three times. He had two dominant years back-to-back in 2001-02. In both those years he was the Sporting News NL Pitcher of the Year. From 2001-04 his average was 18-7 with a 3.11 ERA (ERA+ 150)and 252 strikeouts. But his true value came in the post-season. In 12 series his record was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP. In the World Series those numbers were 4-1 | 2.06 ERA | 0.896 WHIP. His 80.7 WAR is 26th all-time for pitchers. His career WHIP of 1.127 is in the top 50 all-time. Most impressively, his K/BB ratio of 4.383 is second all-time, trailing only Tommy Bond, who pitched before there were airplanes.

Mike Mussina was in the top 6 of Cy Young voting in 9 of his 18 years. He registered 11+ wins per year for 17 straight years, only missing out in his rookie season. That alone is an amazing feat. He won seven Gold Gloves as a pitcher. 24th all-time in WAR for pitchers (82.7). 33rd all-time in wins with 270. 19th in strikeouts. One of only 12 pitchers to have a WAR higher than 80 with 270+ wins and 2800+ strikeouts. His consistency was probably why he wasn't appreciated more.

Larry Walker in his hey-day was a monster. If you look at his prime three years (1997-99) you see a dominant batter at the height of his powers. His average over those three years: .369 BA | 36 HR | 104 RBI | .451 OBP | 1.141 OPS. Throw in a MVP award in 1997 while you're at it. Seven Gold Gloves. .313 lifetime batting average. 15th all-time in OPS. His fielding percentage in right field (.986) is 30th all-time. He contributed at the plate and in the field.

So yeah, I am one of those guys who doesn't vote for Tim Raines because while he was good at a lot of things he was only great at stealing bases. I can't vote for Bonds or Clemens because of the PED issue, although I think they will get in before their 10 years are up. I feel bad for Alan Trammel; had he played 10 years later or if sabermetrics came along 10 years earlier I think he'd be in.

But I think this would be a ballot you could look at and defend. No glaring absences. None of that "No one should be a unanimous 1st year inductee" crap.

Should David Ortiz Be In The Hall of Fame?

The other day I noted on our FB page that Ortiz is likely to end his baseball career with the following numbers, should he play next year:

500+ HR
1600+ RBI
600+ 2B

You can also throw in the following two lines:

1100+ Extra base hits
1250+ BB

Should that come to pass, David Ortiz would be only the third player in Major League history to have those numbers. The other two are Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. Which, in its own way, is supremely fitting. One man did it clean and was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The other used PEDs and may never get in.

So should David Ortiz retire with the above numbers, should he get in the Hall of Fame?

First, let's remove the "No DH" argument from this discussion. The DH is here. It is a recognized position. And punishing a player for that is like not voting for a pitcher in the MVP race. Which is to say, it's stupid. So, forget he is a DH.

On the numbers alone, does David Ortiz have the resume?

To the above stats, add in nine All-Star Games, the 2004 ALCS MVP, the 2013 World Series MVP and three World Series rings. Also add in the 2005 AL Hank Aaron award for best hitter and six Silver Slugger awards. Never mind the clutch hits year-in and year-out.

I would say that, on the numbers alone, that David Ortiz should make the Hall of Fame.

But it is never that easy, is it?

David Ortiz was also named as being on the infamous 2003 list of MLB players who tested positive for one (or more) of a number of substances in the "Survey Test" that ultimately forced the MLBPA to agree to drug-testing in Major League Baseball. And in a time where players like Bonds and Roger Clemens may very well never be voted into the Hall of Fame, a time where a current player like A-Rod will also likely never be in the Hall of Fame because of his admitted PED use, why would it be any different for David Ortiz?

Allow me to be the Devil's Advocate for a moment.

The 2003 list of substances...no one knows exactly what was on that list of substances beyond the fact that it was more than just steroids or what we commonly refer to as PEDs nowadays. Widely thought to be on that list as well as steroids were recreational drugs and amphetamines.

Amphetamines should be of particular note because they have been pervasive in baseball for decades. The infamous "greenies" in Jim Bouton's book Ball Four were taken by countless players, including many Hall of Famers.

So could David Ortiz have been using steroids or another PED? Yes, that is possible. But it is also equally possible he took a stimulant that was accepted as a part of baseball culture or a substance that was added to a supplement without his knowledge.

HOF Voting Needs to Change

With the results of the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot coming out yesterday, I think three things are clear:

1. The Johnson/Martinez/Smoltz triumvirate is one of the best group of pitchers ever elected in a single year. Maybe the best.
2. The four players who were elected to the HOF deserved the honor
3. The process of electing players to the HOF has got to change

The bigger story leading up to this vote wasn't about the players on the ballot as much as it was about the process by which they could be elected.

We should be talking about Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio. But instead we are discussing why some people didn't vote for them. Or didn't even cast a ballot.

If the process of electing people to the Hall of Fame is such that voters feel the need to not vote for players considered locks so other deserving players get in...that's a sign that a problem exists.

The 10-player limit on the ballot is an artificial construct that has no real logical defense. It also implies a distrust of voters to do the right thing, that if there was no limit then Aaron Boone would have been elected to the HOF yesterday.

Some voters, to be fair, don't help themselves either with their own illogical "rules" about whether someone deserves to be a "first ballot" electee. Either you are a worthy HOF member or you aren't; that doesn't change by spending a couple of years on the ballot.

This year, at a minimum, should have seen Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines join the club. Instead we had to watch voters twist, bend and do mathematics to try and get them in the HOF. That shouldn't be the case.

The voters should be trusted to make the right decision. Just make it an up-or-down ballot. "Yes" or "No". And let's get back to focusing on the players and their records, rather than the process by which they are elected.

Could We Hold Off on the Derek Jeter Tongue-bath For a Moment?

Derek Jeter is the greatest Yankee ever.

Derek Jeter is the greatest shortstop ever.

Derek Jeter is the greatest baseball player of all time.

Lord Almighty, make it stop. Please, make it stop.

Let me say this right now. Jeter is a great player. A definite Hall-of-Fame inductee. Possibly the best-hitting shortstop of all-time.

But he is not - not - the best Yankee ever, the best shortstop ever or the best player of all time. He deserves tons of respect and accolades for his career. But when people begin to attach superlatives over and over and over again that aren't accurate, it stokes a backlash that Jeter really doesn't deserve.

It makes people who don't root for the Yankees want to pull their hair out. It makes us dread the entire 2014 season. Not because of what Jeter can do mind you. No, we dread the incessant sucking-up and over-the-top statements we'll hear all year. Fox Sports will be unbearable. I can't ever imagine how the YES Network will function; Michael Kay will probably just cry for entire broadcasts, the sobbing occasionally punctuated by him incoherently mumbling "THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME!!" John Sterling is probably wandering the Bronx right now, bursting into places and screaming "El Capitaine!" at anyone who will listen.

This may, or may not, be John Sterling yelling at people.

Thank God I have whisky in the cabinet.

Anyway, let's address those three statements at the top of the piece. All stats from the excellent and awesome website baseball-reference.com.

Derek Jeter is the greatest Yankee ever

WAR

1. Babe Ruth: 142.7
2. Lou Gehrig: 112.5
3. Mickey Mantle: 109.7
4. Joe DiMaggio: 78.3
5. Derek Jeter: 71.6

Adjusted Batting Wins

1. Babe Ruth: 116.2
2. Lou Gehrig: 89.9
3. Mickey Mantle: 85.2
4. Joe DiMaggio: 49.4
5. Charlie Keller: 28.8
6. Bernie Williams: 28.5
7. Alex Rodriguez: 27.8
8. Derek Jeter: 26.1

Numbers don't lie, people. If you are talking about the greatest Yankees, you start with Ruth. After him comes the triumvirate of Gehrig, Mantle and DiMaggio. You can mix and match those guys although I personally think that Gehrig is pretty much ensconced at the second spot.

At that point Jeter comes into play. Being the fifth best Yankee of all-time is pretty damned amazing, considering the players that have been there. There is no need to inflate him and push him higher. It just looks ridiculous.

Although...I'd even place him sixth. Someone retired last year by the name of Mariano Rivera. First all-time on the Yankees in WAR for pitchers (56.6), second in career ERA (2.21) and Adjusted Pitching Wins (32.5), and the best career WHIP of any pitcher to wear a Yankees uniform (1.00). Oh, and 652 career saves, the best ever. It's kind of hard to leave Rivera out of the top five Yankees of all-time.

Thoughts on the 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot Results

So another HOF ballot is in the books and, like most years, there were some obvious outcomes and some that weren't expected.

I think everyone is pleased that, unlike last year, some people were actually voted into the Hall. But some of the outcomes were really surprising and/or disappointing.

The most disappointing result, to me, was Greg Maddux only getting 97.2% of the vote. There are many, many players where we can debate if they are or aren't HOF-worthy. Heck, I wish the Veterans Committee would have that debate about Dwight Evans, who absolutely deserves to be in Cooperstown.

But there is no debate about Maddux. 355 wins, a lifetime ERA of 3.16 and four Cy Young Awards in four consecutive years. His career pitching WAR of 104.6 is eighth all-time, beating legends like Mathewson, Spahn, Carlton, Ryan and Gibson. His 3,371 strikeouts are 10th all-time. And his lifetime JAWS score of 81.6 is 10th all-time for starting pitchers. There no legitimate reason, none, to deny Maddux the vote.

And yet Maddux wasn't unanimous. One voter, Ken Gurnick, explained he refuses to vote for anyone from the "Steroid Era". This despite the fact that if you look at Maddux's numbers, they are consistent in his prime and degrade at the rate one would expect from a player as he ages. As opposed to, say, Roger Clemens, who had two of his best statistical seasons at ages 38 and 41.

Maddux not being a unanimous inductee is a travesty, but at least he got in.

Glavine and Thomas as first-ballot inductees is right on the money. Glavine, like Maddux, has the kind of peak and decline you expect to see in a talented pitcher. Thomas had his best years before the age of 32, which makes sense as those are the peak years for an athlete. And his decline after that made sense: after 32 he never hit over .300 again and never had an OPS over 1.000.

Glavine and Thomas also had what I like to call the "last hurrah" season. As a player ages, their performance declines. But in that decline there is usually one last season that recaptures a piece of their younger self. And then the decline continues.

For Glavine, that year was 2006. He was 40, went 15-7 with a 3.82 ERA, struck out 131 batters and a 1.333 WHIP. For Thomas, it happened at age 38 in 2006. He had a .926 OPS, hit 39 HR with 114 RBI, cranked out 147 hits and had a 3.2 WAR. That was the only time he cracked 3.0 WAR or higher over the last five years of his career.

It's interesting to see that season occur in the careers of many Hall of Fame inductees or HOF-caliber players. Hank Aaron in 1973 at age 39. Willie Mays in 1971 at age 40. Frank Robinson in 1973 at age 37. Yaz at age 40 in 1980. Dave Winfield and his ridiculous 1990 season with the Jays at age 40. Catfish Hunter going 12-6 in 1978, his next-to-last year in his career. Randy Johnson, a mortal lock for the Hall next year (except on Gurnick's ballot, apparently) going 11-10 at age 44 in 2008 with a 3.2 WAR.

Barry Bonds and the Hall of Fame

Here's something about me you may not know: I have littered the blogosphere with flaming wreckage left and right. I have discarded blogs out there the way Shawn Kemp has illegitimate children. This one right here is the longest one I have ever kept at one...and we took a three-year hiatus.

I bring this up because of the Hall of Fame voting, which we will find out the results of on Wednesday. On that ballot is one Barry Lamar Bonds, who cheated his way to numerous records. So way, way, way back in 2005, when Game of Shadows came out, I considered whether or not his achievements prior to his juicing should still allow him into the Hall. So what is below is what I wrote in 2005.

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It's pure insanity that it took this book to force baseball to undertake an investigation into who used steroids in baseball. But why should we be surprised? The owners and management of MLB turned a blind eye to the increasing use of PEDs, reveling in the increased home run totals and matching gate receipts. Meanwhile, the players swelled to Michelin Man proportions.

And none more than Barry Bonds

When Barry broke upon the scene in 1986, he was a recognized five-tool player. A star in the making. And he fulfilled that promise. Between 1986 and 1998, Bonds was a 8-time All-Star. A three-time MVP. Eight Gold Gloves.

But that wasn't enough. In the late 90s he saw sluggers like McGwire and Sosa capturing the eyes of America while he, the complete player, was left to the side. So he decided to do something about it. And that something was steroids and the rest.

And it was so obvious. So I compiled some numbers.

When Barry Bonds denies using PEDs, you have to look beyond his slowly expanding head. You have to look at the stats. And when you do, you see a very interesting pattern.

As some background, remember that Bonds entered the National League in 1986. He will be 41 on July 24, 2005.

Here are the five best years for Barry Bonds' career in OPS, AVG and HRs:

* OPS: 2004, 2002, 2001, 2003, 2000

AVG: 2002, 2004, 2003, 1993, 2001

* HRs: 2001, 2000, 2002 and 1993, 2003 and 2004

You'll notice that in each category, all the years are post-1999 with the exception of 1993 in both AVG and HRs. 1993 is the last year Bonds won the National League MVP before his streak of four straight MVP awards began in 2001.

So Bonds' best years have all occurred after the age of 36, with the exception of 1993. And his overall best year was 2002, when he was 38 years old.

If you look at his career stats, the improvement after 1999 is shocking. And completely at odds with the basic way human biology works. It makes no logical sense that Bonds should improve yearly starting in his late 30s. And increasingly so. You could easily make the argument his second best year was 2004.

So his two best years in his 18-year career were when he was 38 and 40?? Only if he was juicing, because the human male doesn't age that way.

It was 1999 when he started using PEDs. That year was cut short after 102 games because of an elbow injury he blamed on the steroids. But when he adjusted his schedule for the 2000 season...well, we know what happened.

And is it that surprising that five years later, injuries cost him most of a season? Or that his head grew in size, which shouldn't happen in the normal course of events

Let's be blunt - batters don't get better as they get older. There is some statistical evidence that pitchers can maintain quality into their 40s. But not batters.

Compare Barry's increasing stats with the last full year of another great Giant, one Willie Mays.

In 1971, at the age of 40, Mays played 136 games. His batting average was 32 points below his career average. He struck out 123 times, the highest one-year total in his career. He had 201 total bases, the lowest total in his career when he player 120 games or more. He hit only 18 home runs, again the lowest total for Mays when he played 120 games or more.

That is what happens to the great players as they age. They don't outslug and outhit players 10-15 years younger than them. It just doesn't happen.

Let's take another great player, the legendary Hank Aaron. He played three seasons where he was 40 or older. Those three seasons his home run totals were the three lowest in his career. His batting averages were the three lowest in his career. And that shouldn't be surprising. That is the normal progression of aging.

So when Bonds so blatantly flaunts that progression, it shouldn't take years, two books, a Congressional hearing and grand jury testimony to finally do something about it.

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Heads aren't supposed to grow like this.

So yeah, the guy cheated. Anything after 1998 is ridiculously suspect. But here's the thing; if someone's career prior to that is still Hall of Fame caliber, should they get in?

Schilling for the HOF?

This year's ballot for the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame is going to be crowded. There are three first-timers that are all but guaranteed admittance to the Hall:

• Greg Maddux
• Frank Thomas
• Tom Glavine

If any of those three men don't make it in the first ballot, it would make a mockery of the voting process. Two 300+ win pitchers and one of the greatest hitters in recent memory.

Then there are the guys who didn't make it in last year who should make it. Craig Biggio almost made it (68.2% of the vote last year). Jeff Bagwell has to be in there; even though suspicions of PED use exist he was never caught up in any scandal and never tested positive. Other players like Mike Piazza and Tim Raines will likely make it in at some point, if not this year.

And you have the guys coming to the end of their rope. The debate about whether Jack Morris is HOF-worthy has raged for years. Well, this is it unless the veterans put him on a future ballot. Mattingly is on his 14th ballot. My guess is neither of these guys make it in.

And let's not get started on the PED Brigade of Bonds, Clemens, Sosa and McGwire.

All this noise will likely keep two more deserving players out of the Hall for at least this year. Aviv rightly noted that Mike Mussina's numbers are good enough to make it. And I think it is worth noting that Curt Schilling should also be there at some point.

Last year Schilling received 38.8% on the ballot - a solid first year performance. And while that kind of base is no guarantee of entry (Lee Smith is still waiting on his 12th ballot), he should see that number go up.

Schilling does have a couple of things going against him. He never won a Cy Young award, despite finishing twice in the voting three times. He never had a sustained period of dominance over a number of years like Pedro did from 1997-2000, or Maddux's four straight (!) Cy Young wins from 1992-95. His 216 wins place him only 82nd on the all-time win list. And his .597 career win-loss percentage ranks him 128th all-time.

But that can be deceiving. His win percentage is still above Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan, amongst others. Those 216 wins still put him ahead of HOFers like Bob Lemon, Sandy Koufax and Dizzy Dean.

Eventually Hall Will Make Moose Call

Of all the players who are on the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot, which was unveiled last week, there is no one more intriguing than Mike Mussina.

Among the players not tainted by the stain of PEDs on this ballot, there is perhaps no player who sits more firmly of the bubble between the Hall of Very Good and the Hall of Fame than Mussina.

Joining Mussina as first-timers on the ballot are Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, who both should be locks to be elected this year, as well as Jeff Kent and Frank Thomas. Other candidates who received a high percent of votes last year are Craig Biggio (68.2 percent), Jack Morris (67.7 percent), Jeff Bagwell (59.6 percent) and Mike Piazza (57.8 percent). Also on the ballot are PED lepers Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro.

A player needs 75 percent of the vote cast by voting members of BBWAA to receive enshrinement.

Now Mussina is not a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Mussina getting on the first ballot is about as likely to happen as Fox News coming to understand that it's not really all that "Fair and Balanced."

In other words, it's not going to happen.