Ryan Dempster Not Playing in 2014 for Red Sox. What Does it Mean for Boston?

A bit of shocking news out of Fort Meyers today. Ryan Dempster is not going to play in 2014. He is citing both physical and personal reasons for the decision.

"I had an incredible run, a chance to play 16 years in the major leagues and be around a lot of great teammates, made a lot of good friendships, great friendships," Dempster said in a surprise announcement one day before the first formal spring training workout for pitchers and catchers. "I'm totally comfortable with it. I'm at peace with my decision."

Dempster has not ruled out playing in 2015. But with the way he and others are talking, this sounds more like a retirement than a step back. To that end, Dempster is going on the restricted list. This has the effect of sidelining Dempster for the year. But it also frees up his $13.25M owed to him this year.

Of course it goes without saying that Boston fans want Dempster to do what he needs to do. And if he needs to step away and be with his family, that sounds to me like a man who has his life priorities in order. Plus, you want nothing but the best for a man who wears a suit that looks as good as that one.

That said ... what does this all mean for the Red Sox?

First, this is why you maintain pitching in depth. With Dempster leaving the team, Boston has a couple of arms they can bring up. Allen Webster could be the first name considered. He did pitch in Boston last year, starting seven games and going 1-2 in the process. Dempster started 29 games for Boston last year - asking that of Webster could be asking a lot. But with a healthy starting five thus far, Webster wouldn't be expected to pitch 29 games. Brandon Workman could be another choice - he started three games in July and went 1-1. He has fifth starter potential, but is valuable in the bullpen so I can't see Boston pulling him out.

Tim Hudson in Boston? It makes no sense.

So there is a persistent rumor that the Red Sox are interested in Atlanta pitcher Tim Hudson to bolster the pitching rotation.

On it's face, it sounds intriguing. After all, Hudson has won over 200 games in his 15-year career. He has never had a losing season as a pitcher (the closest he ever got was going 13-12 in 2006). He has averaged 188 innings per season. His career ERA+ is 124 and he has averaged 3.7 WAR per season. Those are impressive numbers.

But go back to those last three words in the second sentence: "15-year career".

Tim Hudson is 37 years old. And the pitcher he is now isn't the same pitcher he used to be.

Here are three stat lines from last year:

Pitcher A: 8-7 | 3.97 ERA | 21 GS | 131.1 IP | ERA+ 97 | 1.188 WHIP | 95 K | 36 W | 1.0 WAR

Pitcher B: 11-6 | 4.32 ERA | 27 GS | 162.1 IP | ERA+ 94 | 1.429 WHIP | 139 K | 71 W | 0.9 WAR

Pitcher C: 8-9 | 4.57 ERA | 29 GS | 171.1 IP | ERA+ 89 | 1.453 WHIP | 157 K | 79 W | -0.2 WAR

A is Tim Hudson. B is Felix Doubront. C is Ryan Dempster. I included those two pitchers for a reason. That simply being that if Hudson were to come to Boston, he'd replace one of these two guys. Because the Lester/Lackey/Buchholz triumvirate is going nowhere and Peavy was good enough to keep under contract for another year.

Signing Hudson to replace Doubront makes absolutely no sense. While Hudson does have a better ERA and WHIP, they are roughly the same pitcher at this point in their respective careers. Except Doubront is trending up and Hudson is moving down. Doubront is also under Boston's control until 2018. And that matters. A lot.

What also matters is money. Doubront isn't arbitration-eligible until 2015. He made a little over $500K last year. Tim Hudson is a free-agent who made $9M last year. He'd likely command a similar number in 2014. That money could be used by the Sox to extend other players or bring in a mid-tier free agent to solidify another position.

Replacing Doubront (25 years old) with Hudson (37) would be a huge mistake. It would be signing a player because of his name, a Carl Crawford kind of signing. His performance last year and the money he would want relative to Doubront should make that obvious.