Who Will the Red Sox Trade This Off-Season?

So the 2015 season is over and all eyes in Boston turn to one man: Dave Dombrowski. The man who is known for wheeling and dealing will undoubtedly continue that tradition as the top man in Fenway Park. Heaven knows enough stories have been written about it over the past few weeks.

But whom exactly could Dombrowski be open to trading? Which young talent will be going out the door to fill a need? Or could it be a more established player? Let's look broadly at the major league level and then at the minors. We won't look at every single player; just the bigger names that could or couldn't be moving this off-season.

Major League Roster

Going Nowhere

Xander Bogaerts

Mookie Betts

David Ortiz

Dustin Pedroia

Rusney Castillo

Hanley Ramirez

Eduardo Rodriguez

Rick Porcello

Bogaerts and Betts are going nowhere. That is as close to a sure thing as you will find in your life.* David Ortiz is the heart and soul of this team and it would be career suicide for Dombrowski to cut him loose as one of his first acts, even if an argument could be made for it. Pedroia could be interesting trade bait but he is too popular and is a 10/5 guy this year. Castillo has shown flashes of the talent that brought him here which makes you want to see if he can build on that in 2016. Also, his $11M a year deal makes him a little hard to move. Hanley Ramirez is on this list because his contract is too big, almost as big as the disappointment we all felt watching him play last year. To move Ramirez would require Boston eating almost all of his contract AND finding a team stupid enough to take him in. Getting both of those things done is very unlikely.

E-Rod is going nowhere; he is the best arm Boston has in the majors right now. Porcello is going nowhere because he has the same combination of cost and poor performance that makes Ramirez unmovable. Although Porcello's performance at the end of the year was encouraging.

Unlikely to Move

Wade Miley

Pablo Sandoval

Jackie Bradley, Jr.

Blake Swihart

Brock Holt

Wade Miley was exactly the pitcher Boston thought they would be getting; an innings-eater who keeps you in games. You need guys like Miley in the back of your rotation and with an affordable two years left on his deal, Boston will want to hold on to him unless their off-season dealings leave them with no room for Miley.

Sandoval performed poorly and has a big contract. But he didn't play as poorly as Ramirez and is paid less. He is also younger and there is a legitimate chance that Sandoval will play better in 2016. He is also a very likable player and that gives Sandoval some value. It is unlikely that Boston will be able to move him but a team looking for a third base presence that is marketable (like San Diego) may be at least willing to talk.

I want to go on record as saying that I really hope that Boston keeps Bradley. He showed what he is capable of in the last two months of the season. His batting improved and he is already one of the best outfielders defensively in the game today. But those same two things, along with his age, make him an asset. In the end I think they don't trade him because Boston's outfield is so dynamic with him in it. But you cannot ignore what he gives Boston in trade value.

Swihart is in the same boat as Bradley. He came on strong, showed his talent and value and is young. The difference here is that Christian Vazquez, who would have been the 2015 starter before Tommy John surgery, will likely start in Pawtucket to make sure his arm is 100%. That should ensure Swihart begins the season in Boston. But if/when Vazquez returns to Fenway, some decisions will have to be made.

Brock Holt is a super-sub and a newly-minted All-Star. That gives him value, both as a player and an asset. He is so good at what he does I can't see Boston moving him on but he could be a piece of a lucrative deal.

Don't Get Comfortable

Travis Shaw

Deven Marerro

Clay Buchholz

Joe Kelly

Thoughts on Lester and the New Rotation

I decided to take a lot of time to think about Lester going to Chicago and what it means for the Red Sox. Especially because my gut reaction was "Lucchino is an idiot."

I still feel that way to a degree, because in the end one deal wasn't dependent on the other. The Sox could have re-signed Lester and still brought in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson. And having those three guys with Lester at the top of the rotation...I think most Boston fans would feel good about that.

But after Lucchino essentially blew off Lester with that pitiful offer in the spring of 2014, it was going to be an uphill climb getting him back here. And that ended, as we all know, with Lester going to the Cubs for an average of a little over $24M a year over six years with a $25M team option in 2021. The odds of which being exercised are slightly greater than me ever wearing a Yankees hat.

Boston would never have paid him that no matter what, a price that makes him the second highest-paid pitcher in the majors behind Clayton Kershaw. And this is where it gets weird with Lester.

Lester was Boston's ace, but he has never pitched in the regular season like an ace. He has never won 20 games in a season. He has only had a season-long ERA under 2.50 once. He has never led the league in innings pitched, strikeouts or ERA. He has never won a Cy Young, or been a runner-up. And I say this as someone who loves Lester, but it's hard to look at that and then justify paying him $24M into his late 30s. $18-20M I can see, and here's why.

Look at his comparables. The top three similar pitchers to Lester (thanks to the awesome baseball-reference.com) are Jered Weaver, John Tudor and Tim Lincecum.

Lincecum is hard to compare to Lester because of his transcendent first three seasons and then his fall to mediocrity over the last five. Lester has been a much more consistent pitcher. Tudor...different pitcher, different time. Weaver is the interesting one. He has one 20-win season under his belt and led the AL in strikeouts and WHIP once. But that aside, they are very similar in makeup and production. And right now Weaver is making 18M this year and 20M next year at the end of his current deal. And that is where Lester's value lies. Paying out $24M a year...it's a stiff premium.

Similar pitchers through the age of 30? Top three are Tim Hudson, Jack McDowell and Andy Pettitte.

After age 30, Hudson averaged a 12-8 record with a 3.36 ERA (117 ERA+). McDowell barely pitched after hitting 30, starting only 24 games over the last three years of his career. And Pettitte...he pitched another 10 years, averaged a 13-8 record with a 3.77 ERA (116 ERA+).

So going forward, if Lester averages between 12-14 wins with an ERA between 3.30 and 3.75 (his career average is 3.58 right now)...is that worth $24M a year? I think it is hard to argue that it is.

So Lucchino's screw up was in the beginning. I think a fair offer (6, 120M) might have gotten Lester to the table to sign up. But once that window was lost, the Sox were right not to chase the dollars that the Cubs were willing to give Lester. $4M may not seem like a lot in baseball, but that is how you sign key bench players and live arms for your bullpen. That $4M can be the difference between success and failure.

Of course, that leaves the Sox without a top starter. And that brings us to the other deals.

Tim Hudson in Boston? It makes no sense.

So there is a persistent rumor that the Red Sox are interested in Atlanta pitcher Tim Hudson to bolster the pitching rotation.

On it's face, it sounds intriguing. After all, Hudson has won over 200 games in his 15-year career. He has never had a losing season as a pitcher (the closest he ever got was going 13-12 in 2006). He has averaged 188 innings per season. His career ERA+ is 124 and he has averaged 3.7 WAR per season. Those are impressive numbers.

But go back to those last three words in the second sentence: "15-year career".

Tim Hudson is 37 years old. And the pitcher he is now isn't the same pitcher he used to be.

Here are three stat lines from last year:

Pitcher A: 8-7 | 3.97 ERA | 21 GS | 131.1 IP | ERA+ 97 | 1.188 WHIP | 95 K | 36 W | 1.0 WAR

Pitcher B: 11-6 | 4.32 ERA | 27 GS | 162.1 IP | ERA+ 94 | 1.429 WHIP | 139 K | 71 W | 0.9 WAR

Pitcher C: 8-9 | 4.57 ERA | 29 GS | 171.1 IP | ERA+ 89 | 1.453 WHIP | 157 K | 79 W | -0.2 WAR

A is Tim Hudson. B is Felix Doubront. C is Ryan Dempster. I included those two pitchers for a reason. That simply being that if Hudson were to come to Boston, he'd replace one of these two guys. Because the Lester/Lackey/Buchholz triumvirate is going nowhere and Peavy was good enough to keep under contract for another year.

Signing Hudson to replace Doubront makes absolutely no sense. While Hudson does have a better ERA and WHIP, they are roughly the same pitcher at this point in their respective careers. Except Doubront is trending up and Hudson is moving down. Doubront is also under Boston's control until 2018. And that matters. A lot.

What also matters is money. Doubront isn't arbitration-eligible until 2015. He made a little over $500K last year. Tim Hudson is a free-agent who made $9M last year. He'd likely command a similar number in 2014. That money could be used by the Sox to extend other players or bring in a mid-tier free agent to solidify another position.

Replacing Doubront (25 years old) with Hudson (37) would be a huge mistake. It would be signing a player because of his name, a Carl Crawford kind of signing. His performance last year and the money he would want relative to Doubront should make that obvious.

It All Starts To Come Together

The Hot Stove season began with a lackluster start. The Sox signing Marco Scutaro to a two/three year deal - when he isn't that much better than the guy who manned short at the end of 2009 - was not exactly inspiring. In fact, it downright bummed me out.

Scutaro is 34 years old and coming off surgery. His admittedly stellar 2009 season is an anomaly in his career. It stands out like a newbie at a Vegas blackjack table who splits his 10s. Scutaro's best batting average prior to last year was 2004 when he hit .273. His best OPS was in 2006 when he reached .747. His current 162 game average is hitting .265 with 13 homers, 50 RBI and a .721 OPS. Those numbers are marginally better than Gonzalez's 162 average (.247/15/69/.689). But even that average is influenced heavily by his anomalous 2009 season. Oh, did I mention he's 34? Let me do it again: he's a 34-year old shortstop! Unless your last name is Jeter* or your first name is Ozzie, I'm not trusting you at short at that age.

And then things got very interesting. The signing of Mike Cameron was a nice compliment to trading for Hermida. And while I would have liked Bay to come back, Cameron does have a better glove and strikes out less. Plus, it saved the Sox somewhere around $8M a year and freed up money for 2011 and beyond.

What I didn't see coming, but was kind of hoping for, was the Sox swooping in for John Lackey.

Make no mistake, this is a huge deal. The Sox have adequately answered the Yankees' move for Sabathia last season. You could solidly argue that the Sox front three of Beckett, Lester and Lackey is superior to the Yankees' Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte. And I'll take Daisuke and Wakes/Tazawa over Joba and a spare part on the back side any day of the week.

And for those who keep saying Lackey can't beat the Yankees, between 2007-2009 Lackey is 2-1 in six starts with a 3.14 ERA against the Yankees. They hit at a .255 clip off of Lackey over those games, which is to say they aren't exactly killing the ball. So Lackey is a little better against New York as of late, better than the stats would lead you to believe.

So Theo came through, deciding to go with pitching and defense as opposed to crafting a slugfest lineup. Which isn't a bad plan; the truth is that since Yankee Stadium is practically a Pitch 'Em Cage right now, trying to outslug the Yankees is not practical or even smart. Good defense is good everywhere; mashing bats can die in certain stadiums and against certain pitchers.

That said, the Sox still need one more piece. And I am praying it is Adrian Gonzalez.

Yes, the Padres don't need to deal him. And yes, he will cost a load. But he would put the Sox over the top and even the playing field with the Yanks without sacrificing defense. The one caveat to trying to deal for Gonzalez is that the Sox should not add Ellsbury as part of any deal. That is subtracting strength from one area to add in another and wouldn't improve the team overall. If I was Theo, I'd make an offer like this: Buchholz, Hermida, Lars Anderson, Ryan Westmoreland and either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick. The final four players are Boston's 2nd-5th best prospects. That's just an idea; I would wager there are other players and other variations that could work. Yes, it would be costly. But for a player like Gonzalez, you make that kind of deal.

With Gonzalez at first, the Sox would have a deadly lineup. Your top five would be Ellsbury, Pedroia and then a mix of Gonzalez, V-Mart and Youk. That matches any lineup in the game, including New York's. The single biggest obstacle to this is the simple fact that San Diego doesn't have to deal Gonzalez at this point. But the Sox have the parts to craft a deal if they are willing to move the prospects.

Even if that doesn't happen, Theo has made some solid moves this off-season and put the Sox right back in the hunt. And he did so while weakening the team that knocked Boston out of the post-season in 2009. You have to like a two-fer like that.

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* Yes, okay? Even I have to admit Jeter had a great 2009 at the age of 35. Damn it....

And The Shortstop Carousel Continues

With Alex Gonzalez signing a one-year deal with Toronto, the shortstop position in Boston is, once again, open for business.

You would think, after five years of being unable to find a steady shortstop, that Theo would consider resigning someone who hit .284 and had a .994 fielding percentage with the Sox for at least one more year. You know, as a precaution. Just in case Jed Lowrie breaks one of his glass bones or something.

Nope. That would be crazy. Instead, Theo lets A-Gonz walk away for a pittance and we now are looking at...who exactly? And the first one of you knuckleheads that says "Hanley Ramirez" gets banned for a week.

Right now we have Lowrie, who apparently is more fragile than a Faberge egg. In system we have a couple of guys who could potentially be great shortstops. There's Yamacio Navarro as well as the recent Cuban signing Jose Iglesias. And if Casey Kelly isn't traded and doesn't become a pitcher, he's in that "shortstop of the future" mix as well. But those guys are all 1+ years off. Who do we have right now? No one. And so we have to look through the FA/Trade junkheap.

That's where you find someone like Adam Everett, he of the .613 OPS, .288 OBP and a weaker glove than Gonzo's. Or maybe we could pick up Marco Scutaro from the Jays. He's only 34, which I hear is a great age for shortstops. He also had a .984 fielding percentage. That's lower than what Gonzo gave the Sox, right? Or maybe Theo could bring back Orlando Cabrera, at which point I will make the two-hour trip to Boston so I can throw myself on the third rail at Downtown Crossing. Because what screams "I have a plan!" more than bringing back the shortstop you never should have gotten rid of five years ago? Oh, and it's not like his glove has deteriorated during that time.*

Gonzo wasn't perfect by a long shot. But he was a better choice that the scrapheap the Sox can pick at in the off-season. Unless Theo is lining up some trade for a quality shortstop that no one even sees coming at this point, short will be the weak point - AGAIN - for the Sox going into 2010. Wheeeee!

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* Which is to say, it has fallen off substantially. Between 2005-2008, Cabrera's FP held between .975 and .988. Last year it fell to .965 and his 25 errors (between Minny and Oakland) were the most Cabrera has had since he had 29 in 2002 back in Montreal. But hey, I'm sure it will all work out just fine.

Catchers and Pitchers

No...not yet. But the news out of Fenway the other day basically dealt with these two subjects. Let's start with the bigger news first.

Yesterday began the passing of the torch at catcher for Boston, as Theo announced that Victor Martinez will be Boston's starting catcher in 2010. This is really a no-brainer, since he is younger than Varitek and swings a much better bat. The decision now lies with Varitek about coming back with his $3M option as the backup or going into free agency and seeing if he can get a starting job elsewhere.

It hurts when an icon fades and is forced (for whatever reason) from his station. Varitek has been this team's catcher since 1998. He's a four-time All-Star and is one of THE faces of the franchise. But he is getting old and his bat is shot. I hope he stays here; he is still valuable to this team as a catcher and a teacher. But if he decides he wants to trying starting somewhere else...you can't blame him.

The other news was the Sox signing Tim Wakefield to a two-year deal that could pay Wakefield between $5-$10M based on incentives. It replaces the perpetual $4m/yr deal he had previously and is widely recognized as representing his final two years in the game.

This deal is beyond fair to both parties (as Wakefield's contracts have always been) and gives Wakes a real shot at overtaking the all-time wins slot for the franchise. He currently has 175 wins with Boston. Cy Young and the Roid Rocket have 192 each. 18 wins in two years is a very, very attainable goal. Wakefield is also just 11 wins shy of 200 wins in his career. This is another reachable milestone under the terms of this deal.

If there is one person I identify with Boston over the past 20 years, it is Tim Wakefield. He joined the squad in 1995, the first season after I moved to Boston post-college. I saw every game he pitched at Fenway. And all anyone could say was "How did Pittsburgh let this guy go?" He went 16-8 that year with a 2.95 ERA and finished third in the Cy voting, finishing behind Randy Johnson and Jose Mesa. Since then he has done everything that was asked of him, be it start, close or do long relief. He has always left money on the table in his contract negotiations, a decision highlighted by the famous perpetual team option for $4M a year. He has been heavily involved in charity in the region. Wakes has always been a member of the team you could point out to your child and say "THAT is what a ballplayer should be like."

To me, Wakes is a much a part of this franchise's history and legacy as Doerr, Williams, Yaz, Rice, Fisk and the rest of the greats. Forget those two years in Pittsburgh; as far as I am concerned Tim Wakefield is a Boston lifer. And I truly pray that this contract allows him to take over the all-time wins total for the team.

And So The Off-Season Begins

Now that the back-patting and somewhat-nauseating parade in New York have faded to some extent, it's time to focus on the off-season. More importantly, what do the Red Sox have to do to reclaim control of the AL East?

There are a few obvious areas to work on. Others would be nice to upgrade. In no particular order...

1. Get Adrian Gonzalez. I was pushing this back at the trade deadline and I am far from the only one pushing it today. The Boston Globe ran a whole article about how important that kind of move would be for the Sox yesterday. He is a young, affordable left-handed power hitting first baseman who would make the Monster his personal playground. The only downside is that former Assistant GM Jed Hoyer is now the GM in San Diego and he knows not only how much Boston covets Gonzalez but what the players in the Boston system are worth. But San Diego is going nowhere fast and even though he is the face of their franchise, San Diego has to know that Gonzalez is their only asset that could be traded to start rebuilding the franchise.

If the trade went through, you'd have Gonzalez at first and Youk at third. Then it's a question of who do you keep at DH, Lowell or Ortiz? Tough call; Ortiz had the better power numbers but Lowell had the better average, OPS and has a very tough contract to move ($12M in 2010). But I think it is clear one of them would have to move on.

2. Re-sign Jason Bay. The more I look at the Jeremy Hermida deal (a great move in and of itself) the more this nervous voice in my head says "Theo is going to run with Hermida is Bay doesn't sign the Sox offer. NO!" That, I think it is clear, would be a huge mistake. A outfield platoon on the bench of Hermida and Baldelli would make my day. But left field must be occupied by Bay for the Sox to compete in 2010, and that means the Sox have to pony up the dough.

36 homers, 119 RBI, a .921 OPS and a clean fielding sheet make Bay's case with crystal clarity. He is the best option the Sox have in left (don't even pretend Holliday or Jermaine Dye is an equivalent choice) and the Sox will regret it for years to come if they let Bay walk. This is THE most important move for the Sox in the off-season.

3. Figure out what the hell they are doing at shortstop. Since letting Cabrera walk after the 2004 season, shortstop has been the bleeding ulcer on the Red Sox body. The only guy who has stepped up in the intervening five years and stabilized the position is Alex Gonzalez...and the Sox just turned down his option. Now, I understand why they did that ($6M is a bit pricey) but the Sox are taking a risk. Both sides say they will negotiate, but free agency is free agency and anything can happen. If he should walk, the Sox are left with an injury-prone Jed Lowrie as the primary shortstop. Not a good place to be come February.

4. Find one more starter. The Sox need, I feel, one more solid starter to push their rotation over the top. And this will be interesting to watch. Usually, getting a top-level starter is only possible through trade. If the Sox do pursue Adrian Gonzalez, then a lot of their best chips won't be on the table any more. But this year, there is a prime target in John Lackey. And the Yankees, having signed CC and AJ last year and exhibiting a new awareness of what players cost, probably won't be in the hunt.

Lackey will be 31 and coming off of seven 10+ win seasons in a row. He would be a nice compliment to Beckett, Lester and Buchholz in the rotation. And while he costs more money, he doesn't cost you any prospects.

The other two options that leap to mind are Feliz Hernandez in Seattle and Roy Halladay. If the Sox trade for Gonzalez, then forget about King Felix. The prospects required for either deal make pulling both off near-impossible. But Halladay...it might be possible. He isn't happy in Toronto, Riccardi completely botched the trade deadline last year and his value to the Jays deteriorates every day he remains on the club. The Jays have limited talent and some serious cash issues. In short, it's a ideal situation for the Sox. While dealing for Halladay would cost Buchholz at a minimum, he would give the Sox a front three that rivals any other team.

5. Who catches? This is something that will get more press in the days and weeks ahead. The Sox like V-Mart as a catcher/1B hybrid because it gives them so much flexibility in their lineup. But Youk and Gonzalez at the corners obviates the need for a regular rest period since Lowell wouldn't be there. So that means to keep Martinez's bat in the lineup would require him catching on a regular basis. And so how does that dovetail with Varitek, who will likely return at that $3M option he holds for 2010? I suppose you could use V-Mart as your DH, but then you're catching Varitek almost all the time and either Lowell or Ortiz is rotting on the bench. This is a lesser issue since it depends on something else occurring first, but it could become a major issue in a hurry.