Red Sox Trending Positive To Start 2014

The Baltimore Orioles were the only AL East team to have a winning record against Boston last year. The Sox were 8-11 against the Orioles with a .421 winning percentage. That was their third lowest win percentage against any team last year.*

One series, especially the first of the year, cannot be a barometer for the season as a whole. Just as one game doesn't define a series or a trend. But with Boston's 4-3 win last night, they start the season 2-1 against a team that gave them fits in 2013. And across those three games, you could see some commonalities.

Let's look at last night's starter first. Felix Doubront picked up the win with a performance that, although it wasn't a quality start, nevertheless got Felix his first win of 2014. He went 5.2 innings, giving up three runs on six hits. He struck out four and walked one.

And now here's a look at our first commonality with Boston's starters:

Starting Pitcher | Pitches Thrown | Strikes | % of Pitches Thrown for Strikes

Doubront | 76 | 51 | 67%

Lackey | 90 | 68 | 75.5%

Lester | 104 | 73 | 70.1%

All three starters were pounding the strike zone in this series, Lackey in particular. That is how you help your team wins games as a pitcher.

What Have We Learned So Far in Spring Training?

Well, the Sox have played three games so far in spring training against fellow MLB teams. So, as usual, it is time to completely over-react about pre-season performances. Because as we all know, the pre-season is a strong predictor of the regular season. Which is why Kansas City won the 2013 World Series and Houston played close to .500 for the season.

Oh, neither of those things happened? Of course they didn't. Because using Spring Training to predict anything in the regular season is a fool's task.

Spring Training is about getting in shape, working on your swing or your out pitch and getting your mind in the right spot. And if your team goes .500 in the process, who cares?

Nevertheless, we got some time to kill before Opening Day...about 27 days worth of time. So is there anything worth talking about with the Sox?

• Jake Peavy should stay away from fishing knives during the season.
• Allan Webster did not look sharp while Anthony Ranaudo did in the two games with Minnesota. And that is something to watch as Spring Training progresses. I said last month that Ranaudo was a wild card to make the roster in the wake of Dempster taking the year off. Signing Capuano makes that less likely. But if Ranaudo keeps this up, it will make it hard for Boston to ignore him.
• Felix Doubront looked good in his game against the Orioles. He went two innings and struck out three against the Orioles the other day. Now, that isn't a big deal in the context of Spring Training. But if the sports media is going to gush over Masahiro Tanaka doing the same damn thing, then Felix deserves a little love as well.
  
  Oh wait, Felix was even better because he only allowed one hit.
  
  
  
  Better than Tanaka. Cheaper as well.
  
  
  
• Will Middlebrooks is still hitless. Yeah, I am being ridiculous. He will undoubtedly get a hit or two before April comes around. But third base is the big question mark with the Sox right now. And Middlebrooks is under a lot of pressure to show that he has it under control. Getting a few hits and showing that power of his would be a good way to do just that.

And...that's about it so far. But just remember:

1. The record never matters in Spring Training. Never.
2. Pay attention to the deeper stats. For pitchers, how many strikes are they throwing? How deep into the count are they going? For hitters, are they working the count? Are they getting on base? Don't concern yourself with wins and losses or home runs and RBI right now.
3. At some point, some reporter will try to create some controversy because there isn't enough news otherwise to report. There is a 99% chance this reporter will be Dan Shaughnessy.

Okay Sox fans...let's take a step back

Two things usually happen once a team wins a championship.

First, there is celebration. This is to be expected. Especially when a team over-performs the way the Red Sox did to win the World Series in 2013.

Secondly, there is expectation. The looking forward to the new season. Expectation of the successes and new faces that may be seen in Fenway in 2014.

The first one is harmless and enjoyable. The second is perilous and even deadly to a franchise.

One thing needs to be remembered. Needs to be acknowledged. Needs to said over and over again:

Teams normally do not win titles year after year after year. Especially when they over-performed to do it in the first place.

Chris Carlson/AP

The last team to win back-to-back World Series titles? The Yankees did a three-peat from 1998-2000, a run tainted by the steroid scandal. Before that? Toronto in 1992-93. And they haven't been the same since. In the modern era, where a name player commands an excessive amount of money (in free agency) or too much young talent (in trade), pursuing even middle-tier names in a quest to win year after year after year will only put your team in a deep, deep hole. Which is why Anaheim will pay Albert Pujols $23M next year and will still be paying him six years later at the age of 40 while winning nothing. Which is why the Yankees finished in fourth place and have a fading farm system and expensive aging veterans. Which is why the Dodgers are on the hook for $197.8M in 2014 with a team that was lucky to win the NLDS.

The goal of any team, in my opinion, shouldn't be to win the title every year. That isn't rational. It should be to be competitive every year so that you are in position to win a title if players catch fire and/or you get a few breaks along the way. And that means building a team that is flexible in players and in spending. It means building your farm system and not trading away the best youngsters to pursue a "name" player that may not even pay off.

And that brings us to the off-season and Boston.

I wrote already about the possibility of Tim Hudson coming to Boston and the dangers with that idea. There is buzz about the Sox passing on trying to re-sign Salty and instead shelling out $10M per year for Carlos Ruiz. Because who doesn't want to spend $10M a year on a 35-year-old catcher who served a suspension for amphetamine use?

But the latest one that really bugs me is the rumor highlighted by Chad Finn at Boston.com about Angels OF/1B/3B Mark Trumbo.

As you can probably tell, it drives me nuts when someone on my radio or in my inbox suggests the Sox should pursue Giancarlo Stanton or Trumbo, which is like saying you'll pay the same amount for a classic Corvette or your weird aunt's '82 Chevette.

I mean, I heard one radio host say this week that the Red Sox should offer the Angels Middlebrooks and lefthander Felix Doubront for Trumbo. Said it seriously, too, completely unaware that Middlebrooks straight up for Trumbo would essentially be a wash without including the cost-effective 26-year-old lefthander who strikes out a batter per inning and just played an enormous if unheralded role in helping win the World Series.

Read the whole thing. Finn points out that Trumbo's numbers are not that much better than Will Middlebrooks, and that he is three years older and costs a hell of a lot more. Which are very important things to keep in mind.

But it is the last part of that blockqoute that really irks me. The idea that Doubront should be added in.

Tim Hudson in Boston? It makes no sense.

So there is a persistent rumor that the Red Sox are interested in Atlanta pitcher Tim Hudson to bolster the pitching rotation.

On it's face, it sounds intriguing. After all, Hudson has won over 200 games in his 15-year career. He has never had a losing season as a pitcher (the closest he ever got was going 13-12 in 2006). He has averaged 188 innings per season. His career ERA+ is 124 and he has averaged 3.7 WAR per season. Those are impressive numbers.

But go back to those last three words in the second sentence: "15-year career".

Tim Hudson is 37 years old. And the pitcher he is now isn't the same pitcher he used to be.

Here are three stat lines from last year:

Pitcher A: 8-7 | 3.97 ERA | 21 GS | 131.1 IP | ERA+ 97 | 1.188 WHIP | 95 K | 36 W | 1.0 WAR

Pitcher B: 11-6 | 4.32 ERA | 27 GS | 162.1 IP | ERA+ 94 | 1.429 WHIP | 139 K | 71 W | 0.9 WAR

Pitcher C: 8-9 | 4.57 ERA | 29 GS | 171.1 IP | ERA+ 89 | 1.453 WHIP | 157 K | 79 W | -0.2 WAR

A is Tim Hudson. B is Felix Doubront. C is Ryan Dempster. I included those two pitchers for a reason. That simply being that if Hudson were to come to Boston, he'd replace one of these two guys. Because the Lester/Lackey/Buchholz triumvirate is going nowhere and Peavy was good enough to keep under contract for another year.

Signing Hudson to replace Doubront makes absolutely no sense. While Hudson does have a better ERA and WHIP, they are roughly the same pitcher at this point in their respective careers. Except Doubront is trending up and Hudson is moving down. Doubront is also under Boston's control until 2018. And that matters. A lot.

What also matters is money. Doubront isn't arbitration-eligible until 2015. He made a little over $500K last year. Tim Hudson is a free-agent who made $9M last year. He'd likely command a similar number in 2014. That money could be used by the Sox to extend other players or bring in a mid-tier free agent to solidify another position.

Replacing Doubront (25 years old) with Hudson (37) would be a huge mistake. It would be signing a player because of his name, a Carl Crawford kind of signing. His performance last year and the money he would want relative to Doubront should make that obvious.

Disappointing Ending Shouldn't Create Blind Panic

After a promising start in Seattle, the Sox saw the final two games slip away to leave them with a split. They stand at 3-4 on this road trip and are now eight games back of the Yankees in the AL East race, five behind the Rays for the wild card.

The Sox are in a bit of a bind now. Their latest glaring weakness - relief pitching - was exploited for all to see. Delcarmen and Okajima were horrendous. And now serious choices have to be made. Rob Bradford from WEEI.com has a great piece on their problem. Put simply, they either have to overpay for a reliever or they hope someone from the minors can get the job done.

Clay Brings It

I thought that last night's pitching matchup was a good one for the Sox. I figured that even if Clay Buchholz got tagged for four or five runs, the Sox could get that off of Minnesota's Scott Baker. What I didn't expect was for Clay Buchholz to pitch brilliantly in a 3-2 Boston win. Over eight innings, Clay made a convincing argument that he is the second-best pitcher on this squad right now, trailing only Jon Lester.

A Look At The Youngsters

With the Sox having the day off, I thought it might be nice to see how some of the big names in the system are doing so far. These are guys whom you may have heard mentioned in trade rumors, talked about as future stars and the like.

Westmoreland's Surgery Successful / Doubront Continues To Impress

Good news from Arizona.

PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. — Ryan Westmoreland, the Red Sox’ 19-year-old outfield prospect, underwent successful surgery yesterday in Phoenix to remove a cavernous malformation in his brain. According to a release by the team, Westmoreland remains in the intensive care unit after the five-hour procedure, but “has come through the surgery well.’’

“Due to the complexity of this surgery, Ryan will face a difficult period initially before beginning his recovery,’’ the release read.

It is to be expected that there will be extensive recovery time following brain surgery, but everything sounds positive so far. Here's hoping for a speedy recovery

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We hear a lot about some of Boston's pitching prospects. Casey Kelly, Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden get a lot of press. But there is another young pitcher who is turning some heads in Florida right now.

Felix Doubront was drafted by the Sox in 2004 out of Venezuela. He's a lefty that doesn't really scale the ball in there (he only hits the low 90s on his fastball) but has excellent control and a delivery that disguises his pitches quite well. He throws a great change that breaks to the left and most importantly, he has a great demeanor on the mound.

I had a chance to see him last year when he played in Portland. He went 8-6 with a 3.35 ERA and close to a 2-1 K/BB ratio. He's only 22 years old and looks to me like he could be a back-end starter/long-term reliever for the Sox in a year or so. That's dependent on how he does in the Bucket this year.

Doubront threw three scoreless innings and allowed just one hit against the Rays in Boston's 7-0 loss to Tampa last night. That makes four innings over two games with no runs allowed and two hits. And Doubront wasn't pitching to scrubs; he faced off against guys like Jason Bartlett, Longoria and Carlos Pena. He basically carved up Tampa's starting lineup.

Yes, it is just spring training. Yes, it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Still, Felix is proving he deserves a little more attention as we enter the 2010 season. And it sure wouldn't hurt to have another strong, young lefty in Fenway sometime soon.