Champions on Display MLB
Showing posts with label Contracts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Contracts. Show all posts

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Red Sox = Yankees? Not Exactly.

With the soon-to-be official mega-dollar signing of Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada, by my estimation the Sox have spent upwards of eleventy billion dollars this off-season.

Well, maybe not that much. But in committing over $60M to Moncada, $95M to Pablo Sandoval and $88M to Hanley Ramirez, that over $240M in commitments to just three players in this off-season. Throw in the pitching acquisitions and other players, and Boston has spent over $300M in total player-committed dollars this off-season.

And so yesterday, someone asked Boston CEO Larry "Can we forget about Bobby Valentine" Lucchino an obvious question: Are the Red Sox the same as the New York Yankees?

"It's a question of pattern and consistency over time -- that's one way to distinguish. But we're not going to not avail ourselves of what we think is a very good baseball opportunity because someone is going to compare us to the Yankees," Lucchino said.


The piece quotes Lucchino a few more times but the upshot is basically this: The Red Sox will spend money when they think they need to. And they do in a smarter fashion than the Yankees.

That's an important qualifier. Spending 20 bucks, say, on vegetables and healthy food for your family is smarter spending than buying them 20 bucks of Funyons. Same money, different quality.

Boston spent big money on Sandoval and Ramirez. But those are also manageable contracts. Ramirez is for four years and a possible fifth. Sandoval is for five years and a club option on a sixth.

Compare that to the two free-agent signings the Yankees made before 2014. They spent $85M on a 30-year-old catcher in Brian McCann, who went on to have one of the worst statistical years of his career. And then there was Jacoby Ellsbury. Seven years, $153M, and the reward was a decidedly average 2014 campaign. Fun fact: Brett Gardner, who cost about 1/4 of Ellsbury and was already a Yankee, had a better 2014. Hell, you could argue that Francisco Cervelli wasn't that far off of McCann.

And that is the big difference here. The Yankees brought in two big-dollar free-agent signings for positions where they already had a player either giving them most of what they got (Cervelli and McCann) or possibly more (Gardner and Ellsbury).

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Max Scherzer and the Amazing, Deferred Contract


Yeah, I'd also be pretty happy with this contract
Seven years, $210M.

That is the official terms of the contract that former Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer signed with the Washington Nationals. A contract that not only gives the Nats the nastiest rotation in the majors, but allows Scott Boras to say that Scherzer makes almost as much as Clayton Kershaw.

Except both those things aren't exactly true.

The second point first. While Scherzer will get paid $210M, half of that is deferred money for another seven years. So what he really gets is $15M over the next fourteen years, with his massive $50M bonus paid up front.

Now, this sounds like semantics until you take into consideration two things; inflation and the increasing money that comes from television contracts. Money today is (unless the global economy utterly collapses) worth more than money 10 years from now. And the Nationals will most likely have more money to spend in the future than they have today. So while the yearly hit over the seven year deal is somewhere in the 20s (the bonus structure isn't available yet) the financial hit isn't as extreme as you would think.

However, it is more than the Nationals were paying at this time last year. Even using a rough estimate of $22-23M (15+ 1/7 of the bonus), that is a large chunk of change that the Nats cannot use now.

Which brings us to the first point.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

David Ortiz Is Back In The Fold

Some dashingly handsome and clever blogger wrote about Ortiz's contract issues back in January. Said blogger was yours truly. At the time, I thought that no team would pay Ortiz over $15M a year to DH at age 38. My guess was that he would sign a two-year extension between $12-$15M:

So should Boston resign Ortiz to a multi-year deal? Yes. Will Boston resign Ortiz to a multi-year deal? Yes. But both Ortiz and the Sox will do their little dance before they get to where we all know they're going. My guess? Another two year deal between $12M-15M a year that brings him to age 40 in his last season. That would give him 20 years in the big leagues, the time to rack up over 1500 RBI and an outside shot at 500 HR and 2500 hits.

My guess wasn't too far off. He actually got $16M for 2015, which I will admit is a little surprising. That is a lot of money to invest in a 39-year-old DH. But with the intelligent management of Boston's finances by Cherington and company, it's doable. And it isn't a huge increase in the bottom line year-over-year.

It's the rest of the contract that is interesting. He actually gets two more years after 2015, but they are club option years that are built in a very clever fashion.

The new deal also created a structure designed to keep Ortiz in a Sox uniform for an additional two years, through the 2017 season. The deal calls for a club option for a $10 million base in 2016 that has escalating clauses that will automatically vest if Ortiz reaches a certain number of plate appearances.


So, for example, if Ortiz has a minimum of 475 plate appearances he'll make $12M that year. If he gets to 550, he'll make $14M. 600 plate appearances and over will net him $16M in 2016.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Can We Make The Jon Lester Extension Happen Already?

Every team goes into a new season with some question marks. Boston is just like every other team. As Adam Kaufman over at Boston.com points out, there are questions about Boston's offensive firepower in 2014. There is the big question about how the Sox will address the loss of Ryan Dempster before the season even begins.

But there is one question that could be resolved right away. And that is the question about keeping Jon Lester in Boston.

He's a free agent next year. He is also one of the better left-handed pitchers in the game. So why is Boston dragging their heels on extending him with a long-term deal? Especially when he wants to stay here?
"You guys have probably figured me out by now, I would hope. I usually don't say things I don't mean. So I mean it: I want to stay here," Lester said, repeating a stance he took last month. "This is all I've known. I don't like change. I don't like going into new places that I have to learn.
He has said he'd give the proverbial "home-town discount" to the sign for a long-term deal. So I cannot figure out why the hell the Sox haven't moved on this.

The only possible reasons would be his age or his performance. The first seems a non-issue; Lester just turned 30 so that is three full seasons left in the 26-32 age range considered the "prime years" for an athlete. As for his performance, his comparables at this stage in his career include pitchers like Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson and Andy Pettitte. Unless the 2012 season is scaring off the Boston brass. And if it is, that would be idiotic.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Should the Red Sox sign Ortiz to a Multi-Year Deal?

I'm going to spare you the suspense and give you the short answer on the above question right out of the gate.

Yes, the Sox should sign Ortiz to a multi-year deal.

It's not a slam-dunk decision - there are one or two factors that would argue against it. But overall, Ortiz still provides enough value to Boston that signing him makes more sense than letting him go at the end of 2014.

This question has to be asked as we have arrived at that biennial occurrence: the one where David Ortiz talks about playing elsewhere if he doesn't get a multi-year deal.
“I always keep on telling people, this is a business. Sometimes you’ve got to do what’s best for you and your family,” Ortiz said. “As long as they keep offering me a job and I keep doing what I’m supposed to do and the relationship keeps on building up, I’m going to be there. Hopefully, I won’t have to go and wear another uniform.”
This comes as Ortiz enters the last year of a two-year, $30M deal and on the heels of a hellacious World Series performance that earned him his third ring and a World Series MVP award. This would argue in favor of extending his contract.

His regular season production would also argue in favor of extending his deal. Here are his numbers from 2011 and 2013, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. I left out 2012 because he played only 90 games and was shut down in a very odd year for Boston that was full of odd decisions.
2011: 146 G | 162 H | 29 HR | 96 RBI | .309 BA | .953 OPS | 291 TB | 3.9 WAR

2013: 137 G | 160 H | 30 HR | 103 RBI | .309 BA | .959 OPS | 292 TB | 4.4 WAR


Ortiz also went to the All-Star game and won the Silver Slugger Award for DH in both seasons. It shows a remarkable continuity in his performance. He was also fourth both years in on-base percentage and OPS. And according to Fangraphs his value for the two years was $17.5M and $19M respectfully. In other words, Ortiz easily exceeded his contract value in what he brought to Boston. Even in 2012, he almost broke even despite playing just over half a season.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Is Jacoby Ellsbury worth a $140M Contract?

I ask that question somewhat facetiously because, in my opinion, no one is worth that kind of money. But GMs being who they are, that kind of money routinely gets paid out. Regardless of whether it makes any kind of sense.

No, the real question is "Should the Red Sox give Jacoby Ellsbury a $140M contract?" Because at the end of the day, some team will give Ellsbury a contract similar to what the Red Sox gave Carl Crawford not too long ago. A seven-year, $140M+ anchor disguised as a contract. And you should be able to tell from that last statement where I land on this issue.

There are two players named Jacoby Ellsbury. The first Jacoby Ellsbury is this guy:
  • Year One: 153 Games | .770 OPS | 188 Hits | 94 Runs Scored | 60 RBI | 70 SB | .994 Fielding Percentage | 357 Putouts
  • Year Two: 153 Games | .928 OPS | 212 Hits | 119 Runs Scored | 105 RBI | 39 SB | 1.000 Fielding Percentage | 388 Putouts
  • Year Three: 153 Games | .781 OPS | 172 Hits | 92 Runs Scored | 53 RBI | 52 SB | .992 Fielding Percentage | 347 Putouts
The other Jacoby Ellsbury is this guy:
  • Year One: 18 Games | .485 OPS | 15 Hits | 10 Runs Scored | 5 RBI | 7 SB | 1.000 Fielding Percentage | 44 Putouts
  • Year Two: 74 Games | .682 OPS | 82 Hits | 43 Runs Scored | 26 RBI | 14 SB | .982 Fielding Percentage | 164 Putouts
The first Jacoby Ellsbury is an All-Star caliber center fielder. A gold-glove talent. The guy who would've won the 2011 MVP if Justin Verlander didn't have an insane season.


AP Photo


The second Jacoby Ellsbury is made of glass. He is a fragile player who is out of commission for large parts of a season. You cannot rely on him to even play half a season.

The inherent problem, obviously, is that you cannot sign the first Jacoby Ellsbury on his own. They are a package deal. And that makes the idea of giving him a long-term, big-money deal very problematic.

The Sox just got out from under $270M worth of bad contracts last year. To immediately tie up over 50% of that number in another long-term deal would only make sense if the player in question was a top-level player year-in and year-out. You look at someone like Miguel Cabrera. Going back to 2010, he will earn $126M over six years. But he has also averaged 155 games played per season since 2010 and has arguably been the best position player in the major leagues. You could make a rational argument (in the world of baseball and baseball salaries) to pay a player like that $20M a year.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Josh Beckett Gets A Well-Deserved Extension

Josh Beckett has signed a four-year, 68 million dollar extension with the Red Sox. For all you playing at home, that works out to $17 million per year.



Beckett gets a $5 million signing bonus and yearly salaries of $15.75 million. The deal was agreed to a few days ago but by waiting until after Opening Day, the Sox will not be taxed by MLB on the signing bonus.

Trust Theo to find an extra angle to help the team out. Beckett also got limited no-trade protection until he hits his 10/5 status.


Now, some people will make the requisite jokes about Beckett signing this extension after last night's poor performance. That is to be expected. But other people have made the claim that Beckett does not deserve this contract. That he is over-rated. One wag in a message board called him barely better than Gil Meche.


Ummm....no. Not even close. That is so fundamentally wrong it makes my head hurt. Let's settle this once and for all.


Josh Beckett joined the Sox in 2006. Over the next four years he was consistently one of the best starting pitchers in the American League. Here are some stats and where Beckett ranks among starting pitchers with a minimum 60 decisions in the AL between 2006-09. Everyone got that?


65 wins: 2nd


65-34, .657 win percentage: 4th


4.05 ERA: 14th


116 ERA+: 9th


723 K: 3rd


792 IP: 6th


6 complete games: 7th


1.205 WHIP: 3rd


3.56 K/BB ratio: 6th



I trust you're getting the picture here. Beckett has unarguably been one of the best starters in the AL during his first four years in Boston. The stats back that up. With the exception of ERA, Beckett is top ten in every major category over the last four years. How can you not want him in your rotation? Beckett has more than earned this extension.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Joe Mauer Gets His Deal...And It's A Good Thing

Sure, fans in the Bronx and Boston sighed in disappointment as Joe Mauer reupped with the Twins. That is to be expected when the best catcher in the game is taken off the market.

All-Star catcher Joe Mauer and Minnesota completed an eight-year, $184 million deal, a contract which will inevitably be hailed within baseball as an example that teams like the Twins do have a chance to keep their homegrown talent.


The deal, which includes a full no-trade clause, ranks in scope with only Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $275 million contract and Derek Jeter's 10-year, $189 million contract.


It comes with a full no-trade clause and means Mauer will stay in Minnesota for what is likely the rest of his career.


Good.


Look, I will be the first to admit that I would have loved to see Mauer in a Boston outfit. But the simple truth is that a deal like this is good for the game. MLB needs great players in middle-tier and small-tier franchises to stay with those franchises. The specter of teams like Pittsburgh, Minnesota and others becoming nothing more than feeder clubs for the MLB elite should frighten us all.


Of course, that means that those teams have to pony up the cash. And Minnesota made a very, very good offer to keep Mauer. If only teams like Pittsburgh and Florida would do the same thing, instead of pocketing their excess cash. Because now Twins fans have every expectation to believe that their team is serious about competing and winning, and will reward them accordingly. Fans of a team like Pittsburgh will spend 2010 watching Andrew McCutchen and counting the years down until the Bucs cut him loose or trade him away. How do you think that will translate into attendance?


Besides, I really want to see Luis Exposito get a shot at catching for the Sox in a year or two. He has a chance to be quite good and I am looking forward to seeing him play in Portland this year.