David Price Joins the Red Sox - Breaking it Down

The bombshell in the sporting world last night was the news that the Red Sox signed free-agent pitcher David Price to a seven-year, $217M dollar contract. The premier free-agent pitcher on the market this off-season, Price gives the Sox the top-flight pitcher they were lacking last year. Between this and the trade for Craig Kimbrel, Sox GM Dave Dombrowski has solidified Boston's pitching to a large degree.

The details of the deal are pretty straight-forward. Price can opt out after three years (end of 2018 season). He makes $30M each year for the first three years, $31M in the fourth and $32M each of the last three years. So you can also look at this as a three-year deal, which changes some things we can talk about in a moment.

Lifetime, Price is 104-56 with a 3.09 ERA. He won the Cy Young in 2012 and finished second in 2010 and 2015. He has thrown 200+ innings in five of the last six years. He is without argument one of the best pitchers in baseball and gives Boston their first Cy Young winner in the rotation since Pedro Martinez left at the end of the 2004 season.

Lifetime at Fenway, Price is 6-1 in 11 starts with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.946 WHIP. He is 16-2 lifetime against the Blue Jays, 13-7 against the Yankees. Being a lefty in Fenway has not presented Price with many problems over his career and I don't think it will now, any more than it did Jon Lester. And he is solid against the big teams in the AL East.

Oh, and Price doesn't cost the Red Sox their first-round draft pick.

So based off of the above, this sounds like a great signing. And for the most part, it is. But there is one rather large red flag.

Sox Reportedly Spend Boatload of Cash to Land 19-year-old Yoan Moncada

So in reading that headline you are likely asking yourself three questions:

1. Who the heck is Yoan Moncada?
2. How much cash is "a boatload" of cash?
3. Is this guy worth it?

To take the questions in order...

Who the heck is Yoan Moncada?

Yoan Moncada is a 19-year-old phenom out of Cuba. He plays 2B/3B right now but could project into a corner outfielder as well. Moncada is compared a lot to Yasiel Puig, the insanely-talented Dodgers outfielder who also has a rep for mentally checking out now and again in a game. Fortunately, the comparables for Moncada seem to be talent-related and not mental. Another name mentioned? Robinson Cano.

Moncada is considered by many to now be the top prospect in the majors. Yes, he is that good. Which is why the Dodgers and Yankees were also rumored to be going hard after him. Boston has basically landed the best player not on a major league roster. Which is no small feat. This also makes Boston a location for Cuban players. And that pipeline, with improving US/Cuban relations, will likely open up more in the years ahead. It's notable that Moncada didn't defect; he had the permission of the Cuban government to come to MLB.

How much cash is "a boatload" of cash?

A lot. A whole lot.

First, the signing bonus is $30M*. Not Daisuke money, but still a very significant investment in a player most people never heard of before today.

But the actual cost is even more. With changes to the international free agent market, teams are now allowed only a set amount to spend on player bonuses. If a team goes over that amount (which was around $2M for Boston this year), then there are an escalating series of penalties for that team. The maximum penalty (for when you go 15% or more over your bonus amount) is as follows: MLB taxes the overage at a rate of 100% and the club cannot sign any player to a bonus exceeding $300,000 during the following two international signing periods.

Boston had already exceeded the 15% overage in signing two other FA pitchers this off-season. Which means that $30M bonus is being taxed at 100%. So Moncada has actually cost the Red Sox $60M dollars. Or more than what Daisuke cost the Sox back in 2006.

This also has essentially taken the Sox out of the international market for the next two years. So if another Moncada comes along in that time, all they could offer is $300K.

But that is the logic behind this move; there isn't another Moncada coming any time soon. And Boston has loaded up in the international FA market this year to weather the next two years.

Is this guy worth it?

Sox Sign Alexi Ogando To One-Year Deal

The Red Sox seem to be timing all their signings these days with impending snow storms in New England. As residents were looking towards the latest weather reports with a weary resignation, Boston quietly signed Texas reliever Alexi Ogando to a one-year, $1.5M deal.

Ogando posted a 3.12 ERA across 156 appearances (48 starts) from 2010-13 with the Rangers.

Ogando has dealt with right shoulder and elbow issues over the past few seasons. He made just 27 appearances and posted a 6.84 ERA for Texas last season because of elbow inflammation, and he endured shoulder and biceps issues in 2013.

This is a classic "low-risk, high-reward" type deal that Boston always tries to make. His numbers, as the article touches upon, were pretty solid from 2010-13. Over that period Ogando's ERA+ was 139, his WHIP 1.139 and a 2.59 K/BB ratio. Batters had just a .290 OBP against Ogando.

But 2014 was a total bust for Ogando. He only made 27 appearances, saw his WHIP go up to 1.920 and his K/BB ratio plummet to 1.47.

So which Ogando shows up in Boston? He is still just 31, so the odds are decent he can regain his form unless his elbow and shoulder are a lot worse than anyone realizes. But even then, the Sox are only on the hook for $1.5M. If it is a mistake, it's a correctable mistake.

With Ogando a part of the 40-man roster, the Sox DFA'ed Drake Britton. Britton was drafted by the Sox in 2007 and was never likely to be a long-term part of Boston's future plans in Fenway. Having watched him in Portland a couple of times, his biggest problem was his inconsistency. That and in Pawtucket last year his K/BB ratio 0.97, which is abysmal.

The Sox bullpen continues to take shape and it is looking like it will be quite solid provided these pickups revert to their norm. And that is the key part here. The Sox aren't hoping they'll keep performing above their average, but their average. If Ogando and Ross and half of Boston's pen just pitch as we already know they can pitch, 2015 will be a good year for Boston.

Thoughts on Lester and the New Rotation

I decided to take a lot of time to think about Lester going to Chicago and what it means for the Red Sox. Especially because my gut reaction was "Lucchino is an idiot."

I still feel that way to a degree, because in the end one deal wasn't dependent on the other. The Sox could have re-signed Lester and still brought in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson. And having those three guys with Lester at the top of the rotation...I think most Boston fans would feel good about that.

But after Lucchino essentially blew off Lester with that pitiful offer in the spring of 2014, it was going to be an uphill climb getting him back here. And that ended, as we all know, with Lester going to the Cubs for an average of a little over $24M a year over six years with a $25M team option in 2021. The odds of which being exercised are slightly greater than me ever wearing a Yankees hat.

Boston would never have paid him that no matter what, a price that makes him the second highest-paid pitcher in the majors behind Clayton Kershaw. And this is where it gets weird with Lester.

Lester was Boston's ace, but he has never pitched in the regular season like an ace. He has never won 20 games in a season. He has only had a season-long ERA under 2.50 once. He has never led the league in innings pitched, strikeouts or ERA. He has never won a Cy Young, or been a runner-up. And I say this as someone who loves Lester, but it's hard to look at that and then justify paying him $24M into his late 30s. $18-20M I can see, and here's why.

Look at his comparables. The top three similar pitchers to Lester (thanks to the awesome baseball-reference.com) are Jered Weaver, John Tudor and Tim Lincecum.

Lincecum is hard to compare to Lester because of his transcendent first three seasons and then his fall to mediocrity over the last five. Lester has been a much more consistent pitcher. Tudor...different pitcher, different time. Weaver is the interesting one. He has one 20-win season under his belt and led the AL in strikeouts and WHIP once. But that aside, they are very similar in makeup and production. And right now Weaver is making 18M this year and 20M next year at the end of his current deal. And that is where Lester's value lies. Paying out $24M a year...it's a stiff premium.

Similar pitchers through the age of 30? Top three are Tim Hudson, Jack McDowell and Andy Pettitte.

After age 30, Hudson averaged a 12-8 record with a 3.36 ERA (117 ERA+). McDowell barely pitched after hitting 30, starting only 24 games over the last three years of his career. And Pettitte...he pitched another 10 years, averaged a 13-8 record with a 3.77 ERA (116 ERA+).

So going forward, if Lester averages between 12-14 wins with an ERA between 3.30 and 3.75 (his career average is 3.58 right now)...is that worth $24M a year? I think it is hard to argue that it is.

So Lucchino's screw up was in the beginning. I think a fair offer (6, 120M) might have gotten Lester to the table to sign up. But once that window was lost, the Sox were right not to chase the dollars that the Cubs were willing to give Lester. $4M may not seem like a lot in baseball, but that is how you sign key bench players and live arms for your bullpen. That $4M can be the difference between success and failure.

Of course, that leaves the Sox without a top starter. And that brings us to the other deals.

Red Sox Sign Chris Capuano to One-Year Deal

I am not going to pretend that I am thrilled about this news. As I said in my last post, I was much more interested in bringing Jeff Neimann into camp. Nevertheless, Capuano is coming to Boston on a one-year, incentive-laden deal.

The Red Sox have signed lefthander Chris Capuano to a one-year contract worth $2.25 million. An announcement is expected later today or on Friday.

The deal includes incentives worth a possible $2.75 million. Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington indicated that the team was close to a move that would bolster its pitching depth.

This would be said move. Capuano went 4-7 last year with a 4.26 ERA. He threw 105.2 innings in 20 starts (24 appearances overall). His WHIP was 1.410. None of that gives me confidence.

And this also worries me. There is a stat called Runs Allowed per Nine Innings, or RA9. By itself, it is simply ERA with unearned runs included. Capuano's RA9 for 2013 was 4.85. There is another stat called RA9avg. This is an estimate of what an average pitcher would have done in these games with everything else being equal. The RA9avg for the average pitcher is 3.70. Which means Capuano, by this metric, was a full run worse per nine innings than an average pitcher in his position.

Not good.