Heroes and Zeros: Red Sox

For finishing in last for the 3rd out of four years, there is a lot of positive momentum in the Boston franchise going into the off-season. With a young outfield clicking on all cylinders, a start shortstop in the making, a young catcher breaking out and a couple of bright spots on the mound, there is reason to believe that Boston can be a contender in 2016 with a couple of key moves.

But Boston being in last this year is also the function of a horrendous start and the failure of some key free agents. So let's look at projections from April and where some of the players ended up (all stats courtesy of Fangraphs) at season's end.

Heroes:

Mookie Betts

Projected: 582 Plate Appearances | 148 H | 13 HR | 80 RBI | 50 BB | 73 K | .289 BA | .350 OBP | .428 SLG | .779 OPS | 3.6 WAR

Actual: 654 Plate Appearances | 174 H | 18 HR | 77 RBI | 46 BB | 82 K | .291 BA | .341 OBP | .479 SLG | .820 OPS | 4.8 WAR



Jackie Bradley, Jr.

Projected: 116 Plate Appearances | 24 H | 2 HR | 11 RBI | 9 BB | 28 K | .234 BA | .302 OBP | .349 SLG | .650 OPS | 0.4 WAR

Actual: 255 Plate Appearances | 55 H | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 27 BB | 69 K | .249 BA | .335 OBP | .498 SLG | .833 OPS | 2.5 WAR



Xander Bogaerts

Projected: 552 Plate Appearances | 130 H | 16 HR | 63 RBI | 41 BB | 114 K | .260 BA | .320 OBP | .416 SLG | .736 OPS | 2.3 WAR

Actual: 654 Plate Appearances | 196 H | 7 HR | 84 RBI | 32 BB | 101 K | .320 BA | .355 OBP | .421 SLG | .776 OPS | 4.3 WAR



Blake Swihart

Projected: 92 Plate Appearances | 21 H | 2 HR | 10 RBI | 5 BB | 17 K | .245 BA | .288 OBP | .365 SLG | .653 OPS | 0.3 WAR

Actual: 309 Plate Appearances | 79 H | 5 HR | 31 RBI | 18 BB | 77 K | .274 BA | .319 OBP | .392 SLG | .711 OPS | 1.5 WAR



David Ortiz

Projected: 526 Plate Appearances | 126 H | 23 HR | 78 RBI | 62 BB | 88 K | .277 BA | .364 OBP | .492 SLG | .856 OPS | 1.8 WAR

Actual: 614 Plate Appearances | 79 H | 37 HR | 108 RBI | 77 BB | 95 K | .273 BA | .360 OBP | .553 SLG | .913 OPS | 2.8 WAR



Wade Miley

Projected: 11-10 | 4.16 ERA | 29 Games Started | 176 IP | 137 K | 59 W | 1.35 WHIP | 1.3 WAR

Actual: 11-11 | 4.46 ERA | 32 Games Started | 193.2 IP | 147 K | 64 W | 1.37 WHIP | 2.6 WAR



Eduardo Rodriguez

Projected: 1-1 | 4.41 ERA | 3 Games Started | 18 IP | 13 K | 7 W | 1.40 WHIP | 0.1 WAR

Actual: 10-6 | 3.85 ERA | 21 Games Started | 121.2 IP | 98 K | 37 W | 1.29 WHIP | 1.7 WAR

If you were alive in the mid to late 70s and a Sox fan, then you know who the "Gold Dust Twins" were. Fred Lynn and Jim Rice came into the majors at the same time in 1975. Lynn won the MVP and Rookie of the Year award that year while Rice was RoY runner-up. From 1975-1980 they were one of the most potent 1-2 outfield combos in the game. Then the Sox traded Lynn to the Angels for Jim Dorsey, Joe Rudi and Frank Tanana rather than pay him what he was worth (and screwing up his contract extension going into free agency). And the Gold Dust Twins were no more.

Betts and Bradley, Jr. are not the Gold Dust Twins, even though I think Betts definitely has it in him to reach Fred Lynn numbers on a yearly basis. But this a young duo that gives the Sox some of the best outfield defense in the majors. And with Bradley now hitting major league pitching successfully, the expectation is going to be seeing these two gentlemen make more than a few All-Star games, with Betts even pushing for MVP a couple of years down the line. Yeah, he's that good.

One guy who might keep Betts from winning an MVP is his teammate at shortstop. In 2015 Xander Bogaerts finally grew into the expectations everyone had set for him. He saw a quantum leap in his offensive numbers in 2015 and was arguably the best overall shortstop in the AL this year. His line this year might even garner him a few goodwill votes for MVP seeing as he kept Boston from completely sucking this year and as a makeup for keeping him off the All-Star team.

A Bumpy Ride

Just when it looked like the Red Sox had figured everything out, it turns out they haven't figured out much of anything. Losing four in a row and five of their last six has dropped them into fourth place once more, three games out of first.

Dropping a 10-inning game to the Twins followed by a 1-0 loss to Scherzer and the Tigers was tough but not inexplicable. Scherzer is 6-1 now and one of the best pitchers in the AL. Lester would have to have been at his absolute best to out-duel him and he simply wasn't. It happens.

It's the next two losses that were a bigger problem. Because in those two games the Sox looked borderline inept.

The starting pitching was atrocious, with both Lackey and Peavy giving up five earned runs while not getting past six innings. The Tigers got 26 hits in two games while the Sox only managed 13. Boston was only 1-9 with runners in scoring position over the two games. That is bad not only because they got only one hit but it means they couldn't even get people into scoring position to begin with.

It was a bad home series. And it continued a disturbing trend where the Sox do not play well against good teams. They are 0-6 against the Tigers and Brewers, both of whom lead their respective divisions. If you add the Yankees in the mix, that record becomes 2-11.

Do the math. Take those three teams out of the picture and Boston's record is 18-12. The fact that Boston is still in the AL East race has more to do with the mediocrity of the overall division than it does with the Sox being a solid team.

I said earlier that maybe 2014 will be the bridge year we all thought 2013 would be. A year where the Sox never hit great heights but never really plummet either. They are beating the teams they should beat, for the most part. But they struggle with the leaders like the Tigers. It feels more like a 84-78 season than a 96-66 one at this point.

Surviving the Grind

Starting April 18, the Red Sox played 13 games against AL East opponents and another three against the Oakland A's, a team they could potentially be fighting with for a wild-card spot come October.

Over those 16 games, the Sox went 8-7. And yet somehow they went from last place and three games out of first to third place and 1.5 games out of first. Though since they are tied with Tampa and Toronto at 15-17 you could say they are still in last. But let's say third instead.

And while the Yankees are in first you could argue that the cracks are starting to show. 4-6 over their last 10 games. Their -19 run differential is tied for second-worst in the AL. And their pitching is starting to lag. Only 15 quality starts and a staff ERA of 4.31 is not the foundation for a playoff run.

But enough about the Yankees. Let's focus on Boston for a moment.

Last Saturday, Jon Lester reminded everyone that he has a hell of a lot of talent in that left arm of his. He put on a straight-up pitching clinic. Eight innings, one hit, 15 strikeouts.

I have said here before that Lester is a #2, that the Sox don't have a true ace. And I still believe that - Lester can be a little inconsistent. But being able to do what he did against the A's...maybe he is more like a 1.5. A very good pitcher who can reach great heights but not with consistency.

Lester was outstanding against Oakland

Which is frustrating. Especially when you look at his post-season numbers. 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP. Never mind the World Series where he becomes Pedro-esque: 3-0, 0.43 ERA, 0.762 WHIP. If Lester could be that pitcher in the regular-season, we wouldn't even be wondering if Boston would sign him to an extension because it'd have been done a long time ago.

Lester is the best lefty the Sox have had since Bruce Hurst. You could argue that he is the best left-handed starter for the Sox since Lefty Grove, although I think Mel Parnell fans may dispute that idea. And good left-handers are a rare commodity. Which is why at the end of the day I think Boston pays up to keep Jon around. He's the best pitcher with a 3-4 record in the game today, because he should be 6-1.

Pineda, Pine Tar And Why The Red Sox Lost

Let's get something out of the way right now. The Sox lost to the Yankees 4-1 because Michael Pineda pitched a very solid game. They lost because they went 0-5 with runners in scoring position.

They most certainly did not lose because Pineda had something on his hand.

Last night's broadcast on NESN turned into a late-night Alex Jones radio show, with Remy and Orsillo ruminating about a brown substance on Pineda's pitching hand. Was it pine tar? Was it dirt? It really doesn't matter, because unless Pineda has been pitching every game in every series in 2014 then Boston's problems go beyond last night's loss.

The hand that somehow makes Daniel Nava keep striking out.

They went 0-5 with runners in scoring position. On the season they are .202 with runners in scoring position. Boston has scored 36 runs so far, 12th out of 15 teams in the AL. Their 82 strikeouts are fourth highest in the AL. The Sox have grounded into 17 double plays so far, the worst in the AL.

Add to the above the fact that their fielding has been below league average so far in 2014. The AL team average is a .984 fielding percentage with five errors. Boston has a .979 FP with eight errors.

Sizemore Starting in Center For Red Sox

Going into Spring Training for the Red Sox, most people were watching the left side of the infield as the place where we could see position battles. Instead, with Middlebrooks stroking the ball and Stephen Drew foolishly turning down his one-year qualifying offer the positions settled in. Boston may be a bit thin over there but Middlebrooks and Bogaerts are going to be the starters.

Where there wasn't expected to be a lot of competition was in center field. With the departure of Jacoby Ellsbury to the money-laden (if victory-bereft) confines of the Bronx, most people expected Jackie Bradley, Jr. to step in. What no one saw coming was a reclamation project by the name of Grady Sizemore making a solid case to be the starter. While Sizemore played solidly all spring, Bradley struggled at the plate.

Photo: Matt Stone, Boston Herald

Just 10 days ago when looking at this battle for center, I said the following:

The most logical choice (and as a Bradley fan, I can't believe I am saying this) is to start Sizemore. Provided that his production continues over the rest of Spring Training and he can handle the physical demands. The simple truth is that Bradley has two options remaining and the Sox can send him down to start 2014 with no risk. If Sizemore gets hurt or wears down (which is likely) Bradley can come right back up. If someone else falters, Bradley will be called right back up.

....

Releasing Sizemore or trading him away when he is playing this well wouldn't make any sense from an organizational standpoint. If he gets hurt or tired, that is when Bradley can come back and slot into center. It's all about depth in Boston, and starting Sizemore preserves that depth in the outfield. And at a very reasonable price.

Well, guess what happened today?

Grady Sizemore is Making Things Interesting

In the wake of Jacoby Ellsbury leaving for a massively over-sized contract with the Yankees, the general consensus was that Jackie Bradley, Jr. would be stepping into the starting role. Even with a weaker bat, his sterling defense would mitigate his hitting. And it would be in step with Boston's organizational philosophy of building from within.

But then Cherington made an interesting move, signing Grady Sizemore to a one-year, $750,000 deal that could climb as high as $6M with incentives. Out of the game for two years, in his heyday Sizemore was a perennial All-Star with a great glove and strong bat. But surely, this was just to provide Bradley with competition, right? There is no way Sizemore could actually challenge to start in center.

Guess again, kids. Sizemore is playing like it's 2007. In seven games he has struck out only once and has an .838 OPS, which shows he is being patient at the plate and getting on base with regularity. He is also running into outfield walls making catches and diving for balls. His two years away from baseball to get healthy seems to have done wonders.

Photo: Matt Stone, Boston Herald

Bradley, conversely, is struggling. After his electric pre-season in 2013, he has an OPS of just .573 so far, and nine strikeouts against three walks. His glove is fine. But whether it is the pressure of being the incumbent starter or just the usual sophomore adjustment, his bat is not where it was last year.

And that creates a problem. There are expected to be five outfield slots on the roster. Three are locked down by Victorino, Gomes and Nava. Which leaves Bradley, Sizemore and Mike Carp for the last two.

Five things to watch in Spring Training for the Sox

So the trucks arrived in Florida and 2014 Spring Training has begun for Boston. While we deal with all this snow up here they have to avoid injuries and sunburn. Coming off of a championship season with that squad mostly intact, the Sox haven't had to do a lot of trading or signing to bolster the roster. But here are five things to keep an eye on as we head towards Opening Day.

1. What will happen at third base? The Red Sox are all about depth, ensuring that they have backups at every position to ensure that an injury or a bad run of play doesn't put them in a hole. But third base has emerged as a red flag.

Will Middlebrooks has a lot of potential. But he took a step back last year. And it was big enough that he was benched in the post-season. He saw large drops in his on base percentage and OPS. His strikeouts increased by over a third. And while his glove was roughly the same, he went from a 1.2 WAR in 2012 to a -.1 in 2013. Not what you want to see in a sophomore season.

If the Sox sign Stephen Drew (and that is still a big "if") and Middlebrooks can't get it done, then the Sox can slide Bogaerts to third. They'll still be thin but the positions will be covered. But, if the Sox don't sign Drew and Middlebrooks doesn't turn it around...the Sox are in trouble.

They don't have anyone behind Bogaerts on the depth chart currently. If they slide him to third then shortstop is totally empty. And if he stays at short then the Sox have to go with Middlebrooks at third until and unless they sign someone else. Yes, Garin Cecchini is in the wings and looks to be a solid 3B prospect but he still has at least a year to go. And they do have Brock Holt but he is a utility-level player, not a starter.

Boston needs Middlebrooks to step up and be the player he can be. He has the tools and the talent. He just has to get his head straight and put it all together.

2. Who will start in center field? A large contingent of Boston fans (and I am one of them) want to see Jackie Bradley, Jr. starting in center field. But with the one-year signing of Grady Sizemore, things could get interesting in Ellsbury's old grounds.

Is Grady Sizemore healthy? That is the single biggest question. Because if he is and he can play to even 80% of his old level, you would be really hard-pressed to have him on the bench. But that is a really big ask of someone who hasn't played a competitive game in two years. Unless you get that kind of production from Sizemore, it would be crazy to not give JBJ the chance to be the starting center fielder. If he starts and you can even get 60% of the 2005-2008 Sizemore as a super-sub, Boston will be in great shape in the outfield.

3. How will the new catcher work out? Pierzynski is the kind of player you love to hate when he is on any other team but yours. Kind of like Brad Marchand with the Bruins. I have no concerns about him as a player or with the bat. He should at least provide the same level of production as Salty did last year. The question is how will the pitching staff respond to him? Will he have the same kind of communication with the staff as Salty did. If that happens then it'll be smooth sailing. But it can take time to build that kind of communication. If there are clashes and misunderstandings between A.J. and the pitchers that could lead to some problems during the season.

Why Boston Didn't Need Tanaka

So the big new yesterday was the Yankees signing Masahiro Tanaka for $155M over seven years, with an opt-out after the fourth year. It's ridiculous money, the kind of deal that puts paid to any talk coming out of New York about fiscal responsibility and staying under the tax cap.

It's also the kind of deal that the Yankees were forced to make. And one the Sox didn't have to make, which is why they never got past the early stages of pursuing Tanaka.

As Aviv pointed out yesterday, the Yankees' "barren farm system" forced their hand on this deal. With too many holes and question marks in their rotation, and an institutional inability to actually take a year (or two) to rebuild, what else were they going to do? The Yankees are locked into a kind of death spiral, where their poor farm system forces them to spend big money on free agents, which (like Ellsbury) cost them draft picks or takes up money they could use in other areas. Which then limits their farm system and repeat forever.

Another meeting of the Yankees' financial department gets underway

To that point, MLB is about to release their list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. They have been releasing top 10 lists at each position over the past week or so to get people ready for it. Of course, at Sox vs. Stripes we only care about the Red Sox and Yankees on the list because the other 28 teams are an afterthought.

But in truth, this is really about the Boston prospects. As you'll see, these lists are yet another example of what building a farm system provides a team, as opposed to throwing away draft picks and spending ridiculous amounts of money on free agents.

So by position, here are the Boston and/or New York prospects with their rank at that position

RHP: None

LHP: Boston - Henry Owens (2), Trey Ball (9) | New York - None

C: Boston - Blake Swihart (5) | New York - Gary Sanchez (4)

1B: Boston - Travis Shaw (8) | New York - Greg Bird (7)

2B: Boston - Mookie Betts (3) | New York - None

3B: Boston - Garin Cecchini (6) | New York - None

SS: Boston - Xander Bogaerts (1) | New York - None

OF: Boston - Jackie Bradley, Jr. (6) | New York - None

You can see the difference between the two teams quite clearly. Boston has a top 10 prospect in seven of the eight positions. New York has them in only two. And those two position are among the "weakest" when it comes to quality and depth prospect-wise across the league.

A Winter Wonderland For Cherington and the Sox

Going into the winter meetings last year, Boston had numerous holes to fill. Having gotten out from paying over a quarter of a billion dollars worth of contracts (thanks to the Dodgers' largess), they had the flexibility to look around and target key players.

Over the next few weeks, they would sign a few guys named Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino. They picked up a reliever by the name of Uehara.

I think they did pretty well last year for Boston.

This year Boston is in a much better position. Not only are they coming off a World Series championship, but they won that title in what many considered a "bridge" year. Their player contracts are well-structured, keeping them from having another Carl Crawford-esque albatross around their neck. Young players came up and contributed, making a case to be regulars going into 2014.

So Boston enters these winter meetings looking to tweak the roster rather than rework it. That allows them to deal from a position of strength; if they don't want to give away the farm to get one player, they don't have to. And they don't have to sign a pricey free agent to fill a position if the financials don't work.

Fare Thee Well, Ellsbury

So it's official. Jacoby Ellsbury will be wearing pinstripes. The Yankees have signed him to a seven-year, $153M deal with an eighth-year option.

It's not surprising that Ellsbury has left. The vibe that Ellsbury would be looking for the best deal has been around the past couple of years. Boras as his agent only reinforced that. And for various reasons I laid out last November, I never really expected the Sox to pay out over $20M a year to keep him in Boston.

I should also point out here that I don't blame Ellsbury at all for taking this deal. He's a free agent and he wants to get the most money that he can. And if a team is crazy enough to give him over $20M a year, he should grab that deal with both hands.

What I didn't expect was for the Yankees to be the team that signed him. If only because center field isn't a particular hole they need to fill. And that signing a 30-year-old position player to that long a deal is the kind of mistake they've already made.

To make this point, here are two players and their 2013 stats:

Player A: 134 Games Played | 172 H | 53 RBI | .781 OPS | 246 TB | 5.8 WAR | .992 Fielding Percentage | 347 Putouts

Player B: 145 Games Played | 147 H | 52 RBI | .759 OPS | 224 TB | 4.2 WAR | .991 Fielding Percentage | 327 Putouts

A is, of course, Jacoby Ellsbury. B is Yankees center-fielder Brett Gardner. Ellsbury is a better player...but not by much. And he isn't $17M+ better, which is the gap between the paycheck each man gets. Essentially, the Yankees just paid out over $150M for a player they already have.

McCann deal should remind Sox to keep clear of Kemp

I would have had this up earlier, but I was too busy laughing about the 5-year, $85M deal the Yankees gave Brian McCann. This would be the same Brian McCann who has an average WAR of 1.9 over the last three years. To compare, Saltalamacchia's average WAR over the last three years is 1.8. Would you pay Salty $17M a year? Me neither.

But this deal is instructive for Boston. Because it points out the danger in paying for past performance. From 2006-2010, McCann was one of the better catchers in baseball. Averaged a 3.5 WAR, had an OPS of .856 and was decent on defense.

From 2011-13, McCann has the aforementioned average of 1.9 WAR, an OPS of .770 and is still just decent on defense. The Yankees are paying for 2006-10 McCann, a player that no longer exists.

And that brings us to Boston and the Dodgers' Matt Kemp. With Jacoby Ellsbury still likely to go, the Sox have to fill in a gap in the outfield. I think the best plan is to bring Jackie Bradley, Jr. into center field. He has a better glove than Ellsbury but a weaker bat. Slot him in at the 9-spot in the batting order and see if he can make the position his own.

But Ben Cherington is going to do his due diligence and that means looking at potential people to bring in. And Kemp is one of those guys. He is owed $126M over the next six years. And with a surfeit of outfielders (and a bloated payroll), the Dodgers would likely be willing to move him.

The problem here is two-fold. First is that the Sox would have to likely give up at least one top talent in their farm system. Which would be ridiculous. So let's take that out of the equation and pretend this is a straight free-agent signing with the existing money as the deal. So the second problem is this: Is Matt Kemp really worth six years and $126M at this point in his career?