Red Sox Start Their Title Defense

Finally, the 2014 season is upon us. The real 2014 season, because who cares about the Dodgers.

The Red Sox are getting no favors to kick their title defense off this year. Baltimore gave them fits last year. They were the only AL East side to have a winning record against Boston, going 11-8. The Orioles have some solid pitching and a lineup that can mash the ball. To beat the Orioles you have to limit their power and not waste scoring chances. This isn't like playing Houston; leaving men on base against the Orioles is hard to overcome.

Let's make this happen again.

This is especially true considering whom the Sox face this afternoon. Chris Tillman came into his own last year, going 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA, a 4.4 WAR and his first All-Star appearance. He also flat-out owned Boston in 2013. He pitched six games against the Sox last year and went 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA, a 1.179 WHIP and a 3.08 K/BB ratio.

Yeah, this game isn't going to be easy.

The Sox are putting Jon Lester on the mound. The default "ace"* of the rotation, he saw a return to form last year going 15-8 with a 3.75 ERA. But against Baltimore he, like the Sox, struggled. In four starts against the Orioles Lester was 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.478 WHIP. As well as Lester pitches against Toronto, that is how much trouble he has with Baltimore.

Sizemore Starting in Center For Red Sox

Going into Spring Training for the Red Sox, most people were watching the left side of the infield as the place where we could see position battles. Instead, with Middlebrooks stroking the ball and Stephen Drew foolishly turning down his one-year qualifying offer the positions settled in. Boston may be a bit thin over there but Middlebrooks and Bogaerts are going to be the starters.

Where there wasn't expected to be a lot of competition was in center field. With the departure of Jacoby Ellsbury to the money-laden (if victory-bereft) confines of the Bronx, most people expected Jackie Bradley, Jr. to step in. What no one saw coming was a reclamation project by the name of Grady Sizemore making a solid case to be the starter. While Sizemore played solidly all spring, Bradley struggled at the plate.

Photo: Matt Stone, Boston Herald

Just 10 days ago when looking at this battle for center, I said the following:

The most logical choice (and as a Bradley fan, I can't believe I am saying this) is to start Sizemore. Provided that his production continues over the rest of Spring Training and he can handle the physical demands. The simple truth is that Bradley has two options remaining and the Sox can send him down to start 2014 with no risk. If Sizemore gets hurt or wears down (which is likely) Bradley can come right back up. If someone else falters, Bradley will be called right back up.

....

Releasing Sizemore or trading him away when he is playing this well wouldn't make any sense from an organizational standpoint. If he gets hurt or tired, that is when Bradley can come back and slot into center. It's all about depth in Boston, and starting Sizemore preserves that depth in the outfield. And at a very reasonable price.

Well, guess what happened today?

Grady Sizemore is Making Things Interesting

In the wake of Jacoby Ellsbury leaving for a massively over-sized contract with the Yankees, the general consensus was that Jackie Bradley, Jr. would be stepping into the starting role. Even with a weaker bat, his sterling defense would mitigate his hitting. And it would be in step with Boston's organizational philosophy of building from within.

But then Cherington made an interesting move, signing Grady Sizemore to a one-year, $750,000 deal that could climb as high as $6M with incentives. Out of the game for two years, in his heyday Sizemore was a perennial All-Star with a great glove and strong bat. But surely, this was just to provide Bradley with competition, right? There is no way Sizemore could actually challenge to start in center.

Guess again, kids. Sizemore is playing like it's 2007. In seven games he has struck out only once and has an .838 OPS, which shows he is being patient at the plate and getting on base with regularity. He is also running into outfield walls making catches and diving for balls. His two years away from baseball to get healthy seems to have done wonders.

Photo: Matt Stone, Boston Herald

Bradley, conversely, is struggling. After his electric pre-season in 2013, he has an OPS of just .573 so far, and nine strikeouts against three walks. His glove is fine. But whether it is the pressure of being the incumbent starter or just the usual sophomore adjustment, his bat is not where it was last year.

And that creates a problem. There are expected to be five outfield slots on the roster. Three are locked down by Victorino, Gomes and Nava. Which leaves Bradley, Sizemore and Mike Carp for the last two.

Five things to watch in Spring Training for the Sox

So the trucks arrived in Florida and 2014 Spring Training has begun for Boston. While we deal with all this snow up here they have to avoid injuries and sunburn. Coming off of a championship season with that squad mostly intact, the Sox haven't had to do a lot of trading or signing to bolster the roster. But here are five things to keep an eye on as we head towards Opening Day.

1. What will happen at third base? The Red Sox are all about depth, ensuring that they have backups at every position to ensure that an injury or a bad run of play doesn't put them in a hole. But third base has emerged as a red flag.

Will Middlebrooks has a lot of potential. But he took a step back last year. And it was big enough that he was benched in the post-season. He saw large drops in his on base percentage and OPS. His strikeouts increased by over a third. And while his glove was roughly the same, he went from a 1.2 WAR in 2012 to a -.1 in 2013. Not what you want to see in a sophomore season.

If the Sox sign Stephen Drew (and that is still a big "if") and Middlebrooks can't get it done, then the Sox can slide Bogaerts to third. They'll still be thin but the positions will be covered. But, if the Sox don't sign Drew and Middlebrooks doesn't turn it around...the Sox are in trouble.

They don't have anyone behind Bogaerts on the depth chart currently. If they slide him to third then shortstop is totally empty. And if he stays at short then the Sox have to go with Middlebrooks at third until and unless they sign someone else. Yes, Garin Cecchini is in the wings and looks to be a solid 3B prospect but he still has at least a year to go. And they do have Brock Holt but he is a utility-level player, not a starter.

Boston needs Middlebrooks to step up and be the player he can be. He has the tools and the talent. He just has to get his head straight and put it all together.

2. Who will start in center field? A large contingent of Boston fans (and I am one of them) want to see Jackie Bradley, Jr. starting in center field. But with the one-year signing of Grady Sizemore, things could get interesting in Ellsbury's old grounds.

Is Grady Sizemore healthy? That is the single biggest question. Because if he is and he can play to even 80% of his old level, you would be really hard-pressed to have him on the bench. But that is a really big ask of someone who hasn't played a competitive game in two years. Unless you get that kind of production from Sizemore, it would be crazy to not give JBJ the chance to be the starting center fielder. If he starts and you can even get 60% of the 2005-2008 Sizemore as a super-sub, Boston will be in great shape in the outfield.

3. How will the new catcher work out? Pierzynski is the kind of player you love to hate when he is on any other team but yours. Kind of like Brad Marchand with the Bruins. I have no concerns about him as a player or with the bat. He should at least provide the same level of production as Salty did last year. The question is how will the pitching staff respond to him? Will he have the same kind of communication with the staff as Salty did. If that happens then it'll be smooth sailing. But it can take time to build that kind of communication. If there are clashes and misunderstandings between A.J. and the pitchers that could lead to some problems during the season.