What Have We Learned So Far in Spring Training?

Well, the Sox have played three games so far in spring training against fellow MLB teams. So, as usual, it is time to completely over-react about pre-season performances. Because as we all know, the pre-season is a strong predictor of the regular season. Which is why Kansas City won the 2013 World Series and Houston played close to .500 for the season.

Oh, neither of those things happened? Of course they didn't. Because using Spring Training to predict anything in the regular season is a fool's task.

Spring Training is about getting in shape, working on your swing or your out pitch and getting your mind in the right spot. And if your team goes .500 in the process, who cares?

Nevertheless, we got some time to kill before Opening Day...about 27 days worth of time. So is there anything worth talking about with the Sox?

• Jake Peavy should stay away from fishing knives during the season.
• Allan Webster did not look sharp while Anthony Ranaudo did in the two games with Minnesota. And that is something to watch as Spring Training progresses. I said last month that Ranaudo was a wild card to make the roster in the wake of Dempster taking the year off. Signing Capuano makes that less likely. But if Ranaudo keeps this up, it will make it hard for Boston to ignore him.
• Felix Doubront looked good in his game against the Orioles. He went two innings and struck out three against the Orioles the other day. Now, that isn't a big deal in the context of Spring Training. But if the sports media is going to gush over Masahiro Tanaka doing the same damn thing, then Felix deserves a little love as well.
  
  Oh wait, Felix was even better because he only allowed one hit.
  
  
  
  Better than Tanaka. Cheaper as well.
  
  
  
• Will Middlebrooks is still hitless. Yeah, I am being ridiculous. He will undoubtedly get a hit or two before April comes around. But third base is the big question mark with the Sox right now. And Middlebrooks is under a lot of pressure to show that he has it under control. Getting a few hits and showing that power of his would be a good way to do just that.

And...that's about it so far. But just remember:

1. The record never matters in Spring Training. Never.
2. Pay attention to the deeper stats. For pitchers, how many strikes are they throwing? How deep into the count are they going? For hitters, are they working the count? Are they getting on base? Don't concern yourself with wins and losses or home runs and RBI right now.
3. At some point, some reporter will try to create some controversy because there isn't enough news otherwise to report. There is a 99% chance this reporter will be Dan Shaughnessy.

Five things to watch in Spring Training for the Sox

So the trucks arrived in Florida and 2014 Spring Training has begun for Boston. While we deal with all this snow up here they have to avoid injuries and sunburn. Coming off of a championship season with that squad mostly intact, the Sox haven't had to do a lot of trading or signing to bolster the roster. But here are five things to keep an eye on as we head towards Opening Day.

1. What will happen at third base? The Red Sox are all about depth, ensuring that they have backups at every position to ensure that an injury or a bad run of play doesn't put them in a hole. But third base has emerged as a red flag.

Will Middlebrooks has a lot of potential. But he took a step back last year. And it was big enough that he was benched in the post-season. He saw large drops in his on base percentage and OPS. His strikeouts increased by over a third. And while his glove was roughly the same, he went from a 1.2 WAR in 2012 to a -.1 in 2013. Not what you want to see in a sophomore season.

If the Sox sign Stephen Drew (and that is still a big "if") and Middlebrooks can't get it done, then the Sox can slide Bogaerts to third. They'll still be thin but the positions will be covered. But, if the Sox don't sign Drew and Middlebrooks doesn't turn it around...the Sox are in trouble.

They don't have anyone behind Bogaerts on the depth chart currently. If they slide him to third then shortstop is totally empty. And if he stays at short then the Sox have to go with Middlebrooks at third until and unless they sign someone else. Yes, Garin Cecchini is in the wings and looks to be a solid 3B prospect but he still has at least a year to go. And they do have Brock Holt but he is a utility-level player, not a starter.

Boston needs Middlebrooks to step up and be the player he can be. He has the tools and the talent. He just has to get his head straight and put it all together.

2. Who will start in center field? A large contingent of Boston fans (and I am one of them) want to see Jackie Bradley, Jr. starting in center field. But with the one-year signing of Grady Sizemore, things could get interesting in Ellsbury's old grounds.

Is Grady Sizemore healthy? That is the single biggest question. Because if he is and he can play to even 80% of his old level, you would be really hard-pressed to have him on the bench. But that is a really big ask of someone who hasn't played a competitive game in two years. Unless you get that kind of production from Sizemore, it would be crazy to not give JBJ the chance to be the starting center fielder. If he starts and you can even get 60% of the 2005-2008 Sizemore as a super-sub, Boston will be in great shape in the outfield.

3. How will the new catcher work out? Pierzynski is the kind of player you love to hate when he is on any other team but yours. Kind of like Brad Marchand with the Bruins. I have no concerns about him as a player or with the bat. He should at least provide the same level of production as Salty did last year. The question is how will the pitching staff respond to him? Will he have the same kind of communication with the staff as Salty did. If that happens then it'll be smooth sailing. But it can take time to build that kind of communication. If there are clashes and misunderstandings between A.J. and the pitchers that could lead to some problems during the season.

A Winter Wonderland For Cherington and the Sox

Going into the winter meetings last year, Boston had numerous holes to fill. Having gotten out from paying over a quarter of a billion dollars worth of contracts (thanks to the Dodgers' largess), they had the flexibility to look around and target key players.

Over the next few weeks, they would sign a few guys named Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino. They picked up a reliever by the name of Uehara.

I think they did pretty well last year for Boston.

This year Boston is in a much better position. Not only are they coming off a World Series championship, but they won that title in what many considered a "bridge" year. Their player contracts are well-structured, keeping them from having another Carl Crawford-esque albatross around their neck. Young players came up and contributed, making a case to be regulars going into 2014.

So Boston enters these winter meetings looking to tweak the roster rather than rework it. That allows them to deal from a position of strength; if they don't want to give away the farm to get one player, they don't have to. And they don't have to sign a pricey free agent to fill a position if the financials don't work.

Okay Sox fans...let's take a step back

Two things usually happen once a team wins a championship.

First, there is celebration. This is to be expected. Especially when a team over-performs the way the Red Sox did to win the World Series in 2013.

Secondly, there is expectation. The looking forward to the new season. Expectation of the successes and new faces that may be seen in Fenway in 2014.

The first one is harmless and enjoyable. The second is perilous and even deadly to a franchise.

One thing needs to be remembered. Needs to be acknowledged. Needs to said over and over again:

Teams normally do not win titles year after year after year. Especially when they over-performed to do it in the first place.

Chris Carlson/AP

The last team to win back-to-back World Series titles? The Yankees did a three-peat from 1998-2000, a run tainted by the steroid scandal. Before that? Toronto in 1992-93. And they haven't been the same since. In the modern era, where a name player commands an excessive amount of money (in free agency) or too much young talent (in trade), pursuing even middle-tier names in a quest to win year after year after year will only put your team in a deep, deep hole. Which is why Anaheim will pay Albert Pujols $23M next year and will still be paying him six years later at the age of 40 while winning nothing. Which is why the Yankees finished in fourth place and have a fading farm system and expensive aging veterans. Which is why the Dodgers are on the hook for $197.8M in 2014 with a team that was lucky to win the NLDS.

The goal of any team, in my opinion, shouldn't be to win the title every year. That isn't rational. It should be to be competitive every year so that you are in position to win a title if players catch fire and/or you get a few breaks along the way. And that means building a team that is flexible in players and in spending. It means building your farm system and not trading away the best youngsters to pursue a "name" player that may not even pay off.

And that brings us to the off-season and Boston.

I wrote already about the possibility of Tim Hudson coming to Boston and the dangers with that idea. There is buzz about the Sox passing on trying to re-sign Salty and instead shelling out $10M per year for Carlos Ruiz. Because who doesn't want to spend $10M a year on a 35-year-old catcher who served a suspension for amphetamine use?

But the latest one that really bugs me is the rumor highlighted by Chad Finn at Boston.com about Angels OF/1B/3B Mark Trumbo.

As you can probably tell, it drives me nuts when someone on my radio or in my inbox suggests the Sox should pursue Giancarlo Stanton or Trumbo, which is like saying you'll pay the same amount for a classic Corvette or your weird aunt's '82 Chevette.

I mean, I heard one radio host say this week that the Red Sox should offer the Angels Middlebrooks and lefthander Felix Doubront for Trumbo. Said it seriously, too, completely unaware that Middlebrooks straight up for Trumbo would essentially be a wash without including the cost-effective 26-year-old lefthander who strikes out a batter per inning and just played an enormous if unheralded role in helping win the World Series.

Read the whole thing. Finn points out that Trumbo's numbers are not that much better than Will Middlebrooks, and that he is three years older and costs a hell of a lot more. Which are very important things to keep in mind.

But it is the last part of that blockqoute that really irks me. The idea that Doubront should be added in.

A Look At The Youngsters

With the Sox having the day off, I thought it might be nice to see how some of the big names in the system are doing so far. These are guys whom you may have heard mentioned in trade rumors, talked about as future stars and the like.