Who Will the Red Sox Trade This Off-Season?

So the 2015 season is over and all eyes in Boston turn to one man: Dave Dombrowski. The man who is known for wheeling and dealing will undoubtedly continue that tradition as the top man in Fenway Park. Heaven knows enough stories have been written about it over the past few weeks.

But whom exactly could Dombrowski be open to trading? Which young talent will be going out the door to fill a need? Or could it be a more established player? Let's look broadly at the major league level and then at the minors. We won't look at every single player; just the bigger names that could or couldn't be moving this off-season.

Major League Roster

Going Nowhere

Xander Bogaerts

Mookie Betts

David Ortiz

Dustin Pedroia

Rusney Castillo

Hanley Ramirez

Eduardo Rodriguez

Rick Porcello

Bogaerts and Betts are going nowhere. That is as close to a sure thing as you will find in your life.* David Ortiz is the heart and soul of this team and it would be career suicide for Dombrowski to cut him loose as one of his first acts, even if an argument could be made for it. Pedroia could be interesting trade bait but he is too popular and is a 10/5 guy this year. Castillo has shown flashes of the talent that brought him here which makes you want to see if he can build on that in 2016. Also, his $11M a year deal makes him a little hard to move. Hanley Ramirez is on this list because his contract is too big, almost as big as the disappointment we all felt watching him play last year. To move Ramirez would require Boston eating almost all of his contract AND finding a team stupid enough to take him in. Getting both of those things done is very unlikely.

E-Rod is going nowhere; he is the best arm Boston has in the majors right now. Porcello is going nowhere because he has the same combination of cost and poor performance that makes Ramirez unmovable. Although Porcello's performance at the end of the year was encouraging.

Unlikely to Move

Wade Miley

Pablo Sandoval

Jackie Bradley, Jr.

Blake Swihart

Brock Holt

Wade Miley was exactly the pitcher Boston thought they would be getting; an innings-eater who keeps you in games. You need guys like Miley in the back of your rotation and with an affordable two years left on his deal, Boston will want to hold on to him unless their off-season dealings leave them with no room for Miley.

Sandoval performed poorly and has a big contract. But he didn't play as poorly as Ramirez and is paid less. He is also younger and there is a legitimate chance that Sandoval will play better in 2016. He is also a very likable player and that gives Sandoval some value. It is unlikely that Boston will be able to move him but a team looking for a third base presence that is marketable (like San Diego) may be at least willing to talk.

I want to go on record as saying that I really hope that Boston keeps Bradley. He showed what he is capable of in the last two months of the season. His batting improved and he is already one of the best outfielders defensively in the game today. But those same two things, along with his age, make him an asset. In the end I think they don't trade him because Boston's outfield is so dynamic with him in it. But you cannot ignore what he gives Boston in trade value.

Swihart is in the same boat as Bradley. He came on strong, showed his talent and value and is young. The difference here is that Christian Vazquez, who would have been the 2015 starter before Tommy John surgery, will likely start in Pawtucket to make sure his arm is 100%. That should ensure Swihart begins the season in Boston. But if/when Vazquez returns to Fenway, some decisions will have to be made.

Brock Holt is a super-sub and a newly-minted All-Star. That gives him value, both as a player and an asset. He is so good at what he does I can't see Boston moving him on but he could be a piece of a lucrative deal.

Don't Get Comfortable

Travis Shaw

Deven Marerro

Clay Buchholz

Joe Kelly

Boston Needs to Ask Just One Question

Can the Red Sox leap over four other teams?

That is what this all boils down to as we approach the All-Star break. It's not about being 6.5 games out. It's about being in last.

If the Sox were in second place and 6.5 games out the calculus changes. You are only focused on one team. You have to outplay that one team and if you do, you are in good shape for the post-season.

But the Sox have to outplay the rest of the entire A.L. East. It's not about hoping the Yanks play .450 ball the rest of the year. It's that not only do the Yanks have to play .450 ball, but so do Tampa, Baltimore and Toronto. And the Sox can't play .500 ball. They have to, at a minimum, play .560 or better.

Does anyone believe that is possible with this team? True, over their last 15 games they are 10-5. But that is a statistical outlier over the course of this season. Boston has been a mediocre team at best in 2015 and nothing has happened to really change that.

I waited a long time before writing this because it was, frankly, becoming a chore to write the same story over and over and over again. Of untapped potential and short-circuited comebacks. The truth is this; the way this team is built is not conducive to Boston being competitive this year. And I would love to be wrong about this but I don't think I am.

There are some good things about this team. Bogaerts has broken out this year; he is arguably the best SS in the American League right now. His exclusion from the All-Star game is a joke. Mookie Betts has a WAR of 4.2 and is one of the best CF in the AL right now. Eduardo Rodriguez? One of the best rookie pitchers in the AL this year (5-2, 1.3 WAR). And don't forget Brock Holt, the super-utility player who has broken out this year and rightfully earned his first trip to the All-Star game.

It doesn't take a genius to recognize that one thing all these guys have in common is that they are young. The oldest is Holt at 27. And maybe that is where Boston's focus should be going into the second-half of 2015.

This isn't to say that the Sox should jettison every last veteran. Any 2016 team needs veteran leadership. Pedroia is going nowhere. Holt could be a good, young leader. But Boston has to start asking some tough questions with clear eyes.

The Top Five Red Sox Players to Wear Number 11

Turns out the last one of these I did was about a year ago (The Top Five Red Sox Players to Wear Number 10). So at this rate I should finish around 2040 and then have to start again. But since the Sox didn't play yesterday I thought it would be fun to trot out another one of these. We may start doing a Yankee one as well.

The '11' has been worn by 36 players in Red Sox history, from Billy Connolly, Sr. in 1931 through Royce Clayton's "Cup of Coffee and Championship Ring Tour" in 2007 to the current wearer, Clay Buchholz . It doesn't exactly have the pedigree of some of the other numbers, but two of the better third-baseman in franchise history have worn it as well as a legend at the end of his career

Honorable Mention: Hideo Nomo (2001) - He played only one season in Boston, but it wasn't a bad one by any stretch. He went 13-10, pitched 198 innings and struck out 220 batters. And he threw that no-hitter to start his season. He ended up leading the AL in strikeouts and K/9 IP that year, as well as giving up the fewest walks (96). Yet he didn't make the All-Star team.

The problem in 2001 was that the staff ace (Pedro) had injury issues and only threw in 18 games. After that you had to depend on 38-year old David Cone and Frank Castillo. The only other pitcher besides Nomo who cracked 150 innings was Tim Wakefield. The Sox ended up at 82-79. Nomo had issues adapting to Boston and that off-season he went back to LA.

5. Dave Stapelton (1980-86) - Dave split most of his time between first and second base during his career in Boston. He was second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 1980, losing out to Cleveland's Joe Charboneau. That year he also finished in the Top 10 for doubles. After that he was more of a "super-sub", especially in 1986 when he would replace Buckner at first for defensive purposes....

GOOD GOD, MCNAMARA!! WHY DIDN'T YOU REPLACE BUCKNER IN GAME 6?!!?

Sorry, but it still sticks in my craw. Anyway, here's a interesting note: the only major league player to have played for a minimum of seven years and have their batting average drop each season is one David Stapelton. So the question is obvious: how does he beat out Nomo? Well, I take service time into account. And Stapes was here a hell of a lot longer. He also had the ROY voting as well. But mostly it is because he signed my program when I was a kid and so I am making an editor's choice.

4. Clay Buchholz (2010-Current) - Clay had a breakout season in 2010, going 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA and making his first All-Star squad. Clay also finished sixth in the AL Cy Young voting. This was all especially impressive considering how many people were calling for him to be traded prior to the start of 2010. Kind of like...now. He is transcendent talent mixed with frustrating indifference. His 2013 season was poised to be one for the ages. This season is poised to be disappointing as hell.

3. Bill Mueller (2003-05) - Mueller was only here for three seasons but he exemplified everything we want in our players. He played tough, left it all on the field and cared about the team. His first year in Boston was amazing; he batted .326 to lead the AL, he was Top 10 in OPS and OBP, he was Top 5 in doubles, won the AL Silver Slugger Award for third base and finished 12th in the AL MVP voting. And while he never recaptured that form his last two years, he was a solid cornerman and a vital part of the 2004 World Series winners (he batted an obscene .429 against the Cards.) Just a class act all around and by all accounts one of the great guys in baseball. We were lucky to have him.

A Lack of Consistency

We are now three series through the 2015 season. The Red Sox sit atop the AL East at 6-3. They have taken two wins in each series, including 2-of-3 from the Yankees in the Bronx. They have scored 56 runs, tied for the most in baseball with the Oakland Athletics.

And that's all good. Especially the runs; Boston was a black hole of run production in 2014 and their decision to invest in hitting seems to be paying off so far in that area.

The pitching, however, doesn't seem to be all there. Now, it is still a little early to start making grand proclamations about Boston's starting pitching in 2015 before the entire rotation has even made two starts. Being like Dan Shaughnessy and calling Clay Buchholz "borderline disgraceful" is a little premature.*

The truth is that every starter but one over the first nine games had one decent/good start and one poor/bad start. The only exception is Joe Kelly, and we'll see if he can break that trend tomorrow night. The one consistent thing about Boston's rotation thus far has been the inconsistency in their performance.**

That's a frustrating thing to have to accept as a fan. Farrell saying he had five "number ones" in Spring Training was laughable on it's face when he said it. It looks even sillier now, if not slightly delusional.

What he, and the Sox, have are five talented starting pitchers who have never been able to put together two dominating seasons. Not one of the five have won 15+ games in two consecutive seasons. Only Buchholz and Porcello have one season with 15+ wins, and Clay's was back in 2010.

Boston's rotation is thick with potential. But, as we all know, potential doesn't mean a thing if it isn't realized.

So Where Does Boston Stand After a Week?

Baseball, to borrow an old saying, is a journey, not a sprint. Its 162-game season is, by far, the longest of any major professional sport. We are not even five percent of the way through the 2015 season.

This is a somewhat roundabout way of saying everyone needs to chill out about Buchholz's horrible performance last night in New York. It was ugly and brutal, and without any redeeming qualities.

It was also only his second start of the year. It's hard to predict where a pitcher will be at year's end from their first two starts. It's kind of crazy to try.

That said, it was a brutal performance. And because of what has happened in the past, people are going to immediately question Buchholz. But Sox fans really need to wait for a couple of more starts before they start bringing the pitchforks to Fenway.

Of course, the idea of patience cuts both ways. So it is also too early to celebrate how solid Robbie Ross has been in relief. Or how solid both Masterson and Joe Kelly were in their season debuts. But every Boston fan hopes those trends continue.

With hitting it feels like it is easier to draw conclusions six games into the season because your average batter gets 3-5 appearances per game. But if you figure maybe 550 AB / 610 PA as a seasonal average, the player with the most at-bats for Boston (Pablo Sandoval) has been in one-half of one percent of his likely plate appearances / at-bats for 2015.

It's early. That said, it's hard not to be excited for Xander Bogaerts and his .985 OPS, or for Hanley Ramirez closing in on 10 RBI. Ryan Hanigan can't hit the ball to save his life, but he is a walk machine and his .364 OBP is second-best for any regular starter on the team.

Takeaways From Opening Day for Boston and New York

So Opening Day is in the books, with Boston getting a win in Philly while the Yanks fell to the Blue Jays. So did we learn anything at all from the games?

1. Dustin Pedroia is healthy.
Pedroia is always solid in the field, to the point that his defensive excellence can mitigate poor performance at the plate. But over the past couple of years his thumb has given him no small amount of grief when it comes to hitting. Going into this year he said he was 100% and after going 3-5 with two home runs, I am inclined to believe him.

Pedroia was turning on the ball and generating power in a way he simply wasn't able to in the past two years. If he can keep this up, Boston's lineup is even more dangerous when firing on all cylinders.

2. Masahiro Tanaka needs Tommy John surgery.
If you spend $20M for the right to sign a pitcher and give him $155M over seven years, shouldn't you do everything possible to protect that investment?

Apparently, not if you are the New York Yankees. They let Tanaka basically talk them into letting him finish 2014 and go the off-season without getting TJ surgery for his elbow. The wisdom of that move was on display Monday, when Tanaka had no fastball to speak of and could only go four innings.

Tanaka is not a finesse pitcher. But with a fastball that is barely touching 90 because of his elbow, that is who Tanaka is trying to be right now. And it isn't going to work. Sooner or later, the Yankees will have to acknowledge this and shut Tanaka down. Either way, the Yankee rotation is even more uncertain today than it was before Monday.

3. About that Boston lineup...
With the power display on Monday, it was easy to ignore/miss the fact that Ortiz and Sandoval went a combined 0-9 with six strikeouts. Or that Boston generated all their runs with home runs as opposed to hits.

I know it's one game and this smacks of the kind of despair and foolishness that sports radio is famous for throwing out over the airwaves. But Boston had massive problems with run production in 2014. No team can count on home runs to create all their scoring game after game. And Boston cannot afford to have both Ortiz and Sandoval go into massive slumps to start the year.

Rather than call this a problem, let's just say it's something to keep an eye on and we can revisit it a week or two down the road.

Standing Still

Not much changed for Boston after their four games at Fenway with the Orioles. They started out two games back from first and ended it 2.5 games back. They are in last but at this stage that (dis)honor means little. It's all about the GB right now and the only two teams in the AL that look like they could start playing golf in June are the Mariners and Astros.

That said, it is frustrating because the Sox could be at 10-10 right now if not for one bad inning from Clay Buchholz. The Sox played an all-around better game on Patriots Day but when your starting pitcher gives up six runs in one inning...you are making your team climb a tall hill from that point on. The fact that Boston almost won yesterday's game says something about how, finally, their hitting seems to be coming around a little bit.

The Sox outhit Baltimore in two of the four games, something they have had trouble doing this year. They hit .243 with runners in scoring position over the four games, much better than the .185 they averaged against Chicago. They left 30 men on base over the series, an average of 7.5 a game, compared with 9.3 a game with Chicago. They have gone from 24th in team OPS to 21st, 20th in runs (from 22nd) and 23rd in extra-base hits (from 26th). That still isn't great. Heck, it isn't even good. But it is an improvement and that is what has to happen for Boston to start moving up the standings. Every journey starts with a single step, right?

And let's hear it for Brock Holt, who actually stabilized third base and brought a functioning bat into the lineup. His OPS right now is 1.009. Yes, that is only over four games. But when you consider Ryan Roberts had just a .333 OPS over eight games (and .200 after four), I say we give a round of applause to Brock and encourage him to keep his bat moving.

Hallelujah, someone who can play third and hit

So for all that, it was a letdown to then see the pitching slip. We had Buchholz implode the other day. Someone on Boston.com said that Buchholz isn't an ace, but a wild card. And I think that is the perfect description for him. You never quite know what Clay is going to give you when he takes the mound. He has all the talent in the world. But some days you get a crap-bomb like yesterday and others you get a work of art like that game in April 2013 against the Rays when Clay went eight innings and struck out 11. The inconsistency is maddening.

Pineda, Pine Tar And Why The Red Sox Lost

Let's get something out of the way right now. The Sox lost to the Yankees 4-1 because Michael Pineda pitched a very solid game. They lost because they went 0-5 with runners in scoring position.

They most certainly did not lose because Pineda had something on his hand.

Last night's broadcast on NESN turned into a late-night Alex Jones radio show, with Remy and Orsillo ruminating about a brown substance on Pineda's pitching hand. Was it pine tar? Was it dirt? It really doesn't matter, because unless Pineda has been pitching every game in every series in 2014 then Boston's problems go beyond last night's loss.

The hand that somehow makes Daniel Nava keep striking out.

They went 0-5 with runners in scoring position. On the season they are .202 with runners in scoring position. Boston has scored 36 runs so far, 12th out of 15 teams in the AL. Their 82 strikeouts are fourth highest in the AL. The Sox have grounded into 17 double plays so far, the worst in the AL.

Add to the above the fact that their fielding has been below league average so far in 2014. The AL team average is a .984 fielding percentage with five errors. Boston has a .979 FP with eight errors.

Creeping Into Range

With the wheels continuing to fall off the Tampa bandwagon (2-6 in their last eight games), Boston has slowly, steadily, come up right behind them. With Boston's convincing 10-1 win in Toronto last night the Sox are just 3.5 games behind the Rays for the AL wild card spot. And just five back of the Yankees for the AL East lead.

Armageddon Interrupted

With Red Sox fans on the verge of a mental collapse and airwave pundits declaring the season all but over, Boston reminded everyone why they cannot be counted out of the post-season race. At least, not yet.

Six Sox Make The Grade

Well, we now have the rosters choices for the All-Star Game. And while no Sox made the starting nine for the AL, six players were named to the reserves. Buchholz, Lester, Beltre, Martinez, Ortiz and Pedroia all made the grade, and all six deserve to be on the team.

Clay Hits 10

I'll be honest; I had serious doubts Clay Buchholz would ever tap into his obvious wellspring of pitching talent. I had no problems entertaining ideas about him on the trading block. He looked like the proverbial player who just never quite plays up to his ability.

Tough Win Is Still A Win

No, Clay Buchholz did not have his best stuff last night, scoreline and K/BB ratio to the contrary. But he did what he needed to do, the batters did what they needed to do and the result was a 6-3 win for the Sox over Arizona.

Well Lookie Here...

I'm almost asking myself why I am writing this. During my hiatus, the Red Sox basically turned the dial up to 11 and stomped their way up AL East ladder. Now they sit just four games out of first and just two games behind the Yankees for what would currently be the wild-card slot in the post-season. Quite a far cry from the end of April when a bunch of pink hats and airwave bloviators were ready to blow this team up.

Clay Brings It

I thought that last night's pitching matchup was a good one for the Sox. I figured that even if Clay Buchholz got tagged for four or five runs, the Sox could get that off of Minnesota's Scott Baker. What I didn't expect was for Clay Buchholz to pitch brilliantly in a 3-2 Boston win. Over eight innings, Clay made a convincing argument that he is the second-best pitcher on this squad right now, trailing only Jon Lester.

A Good Start

Well, you can't complain about too much for one game when your team posts 17 runs. Even if they did get sloppy in the ninth. But compared to the last series, it was a joy to watch the Sox beat up on the Angels 17-8 and begin this critical homestand with a resounding win. Whatever was said in that pre-game meeting was epic.

Clay Comes Up Big

Every pitcher has a team he loves to see. Roger Clemens enjoyed destroying the Royals (25-7 lifetime). Pedro salivated whenever he pitched against Seattle (13-1, 1.57 ERA, 0.854 WHIP). El Tiante? A perfect 9-0 lifetime against the Blue Jays.

Which fittingly leads us to Clay Buchholz. In his short career, Clay seems to enjoy pitching against Toronto more than any other team. He made that clear once again last night by leading the Sox to a 2-1 win over the Jays. The win pushed the Sox past Toronto into third place even though they are both at 10-11 (thanks, alphabetical order!) and they are three back of the Yankees for second place. Baby steps...

Turning A Corner?

Granted, Boston's three wins in their last four games have been against Texas and Baltimore. And two of them were of the "come-from-behind" variety. But beating Texas or Baltimore is the same as beating Minnesota or New York when it comes to wins and losses.

So last night's 4-3 win over the Orioles wasn't the prettiest game played in Fenway, or the easiest. But it was a win. And that is something that had been in short supply for the Sox at home for most of the early 2010 season.

Unfriendly Confines

I never thought I would see the day when Boston did better away from Fenway Park. But 11 games into the 2010 season, the simple truth is that Boston wins more on the road than at home. The Sox are 3-3 on the road and 1-4 at home. Yesterday's double-whammy with the Rays contributed a lot to that abysmal home start.

What makes it worse is that the losses are never blowouts. In their two losses against the Yankees and their two losses against the Rays, the Sox haven't lost by more than two runs in any game. They are in the games right to the end but cannot seem to find a way to win.

Escape From Kansas City

Sometimes it isn't pretty. Sometimes it isn't easy. But as long as you have more runs that the other team when that last out is recorded, that's all that matters.

What looked like a runaway win for the Sox Sunday afternoon turned into a bit of a nail-biter thanks to Ramon Ramirez and his remarkable ability to surrender runs. But by the end, the Sox got away with an 8-6 win and got back to .500 (3-3).